Analysis Challenges in the Information Age

1. C2 Analysis:Information Age Challengespresented at ISMOR August 2002Dr. David S. AlbertsDirector, Research and Strategic PlanningDepartment of Defense

2. Agenda • Analysis Challenges • Meeting the Challenges • Summary

3. Analysis Challenges • Analysis has no intrinsic value • Purpose of Analysis is to inform decisions • DoD Transformation needs to be informed • Thus, Analysis needs to effectively deal with • Information Age concepts and technologies • Full spectrum of missions • Characteristics of “non traditional” adversaries • Uncertainty, Risk, Agility (robust, adaptability, flexible, innovative, responsive)

4. Information Concepts and Technologies • Network Centric Warfare • High quality awareness • Shared awareness • Collaboration • Self-synchronization • Information Flows • Move from Push-oriented to Pull-dominated • Widespread sharing of information • Cognitive Dimension • perceptions, values, cultural biases • Systems • Move from Systems to System of SystemstoFederations of Systems • Vulnerabilities • Transformation Process • From exercises to experiments • From technology insertion to co-evolution of MCPs

5. Mission Spectrum • Peacetime Engagement • Humanitarian Assistance / Disaster Relief • Shaping / Deterrence / Preemption • Homeland Security • Counter-terrorism • Small Scale Contingencies • Special Forces Operations • War These are not exclusively military missions

6. Non-Traditional Adversaries • Asymmetrical • Objective Functions • Means • Frame of Reference • Extended battlespace (beyond combatants and “battlefield”) • Cultural differences reflected in unfamiliar behaviors • Different information capabilities and needs

7. “ilities” • Most analyses focus on measures or indicants of mission success in a given scenario • The effectiveness of selected capabilities are often highly dependent on circumstances / scenarios • Measures that reflect a capability’s robustness, flexibility, and agility to address a wide range of missions, circumstances, and scenarios are needed. • From these one can derive measures of risk to complement other measures of effectiveness

8. Meeting the Challenges • Focus on Transformation • Include Key Independent Variables • Include Measures that focus on Information Age concepts • “Control” the Controllable Variables • Consider Key Relationships • Avoid killer assumptions • Existing Doctrine • Approved Models, Scenarios, and Data • Scripted Adversary Behavior • Perfect Communications • Perfect Decision Making

9. Meeting the Challenges • Focus on Transformation • Include Key Independent Variables • Include Measures that focus on Information Age concepts • “Control” the Controllable Variables • Consider Key Relationships • Avoid killer assumptions • Existing Doctrine • Approved Models and Data • Scripted Adversary Behavior • Perfect Communications • Perfect Decision Making • One Scenario • No Sensitivity Analysis - Focus on Key Variables and Value Chain

10. Adversary Key Variables &Value Chain Networking the Force Collaboration Sharing Synchronization Shared-Awareness Awareness Protection Offensive IO Information Advantage(less fog) Execution Advantage(less friction) Better C2 Better Decisions Better Plans Better Execution Competitive Advantage

11. Information Sharing • Information Sharing Lies at the Core of Information Age Concepts • Creates Increased Awareness • Creates Shared Awareness • Entry Fee is a Robustly Networked Force • the “Net” • “Net-Ready” Nodes • Information Sharing Has Organizational, Behavioral, and Technical Components – Interoperability v. Cooperability • Technical Component Enables • Organizational and Behavioral Components Generate Value

12. Collaboration • Collaboration requires Shared Awareness • Collaboration in the Information and Cognitive Domains Creates an Information Advantage • Collaboration in the Warfighting Domain Creates Value by Exploiting an Information Advantage to Create a Competitive Advantage • Collaboration Takes Places “on the Net”or is Reflected “in the Net” • The Ability to Share Awareness Creates New Forms of Collaboration (e.g., Self-Synchronization)

13. Awareness • Awareness is a Perception of the Situation • Levels of Awareness • entities, relationships, the patterns and implications Time & Space E n v i r o n m e n t • Capabilities & Intentions M i s s I o n Red Blue The Situation Other Opportunities & Risks

14. Synchronization • “Purposeful arrangement of things in time and space.” • Synchronization is an output characteristic of a command and control process that arranges and continually adapts the relationships of military actions in time and space to achieve the objective • Fuses the information, cognitive, and physical domains • Involves a dynamic component that orchestrates relationships among many dimensions: • Time (sequencing) • Space (simultaneity) • Purpose Level (Strategic, Operational, Tactical) • Arenas (Air, Land, Sea, Space, Cyberspace) • Organizational Synchrony

15. Self-Synchronization Involves New Command Concepts • Self-Synchronization is an emergent property • Command Intent • Shared Awareness • Shared Experience • Collaborative Processes

16. Self-Synchronization X X X Synchronization

17. Meeting the Challenges • Focus on the Transformation • Include Key Independent Variables • Include Measures that focus on Information Age concepts • “Control” the Controllable Variables • Consider Key Relationships • Avoid killer assumptions • Existing Doctrine • Approved Models and Data • Scripted Adversary Behavior • Perfect Communications • Perfect Decision Making • One Scenario • No Sensitivity Analysis - Focus on Information Age C2 Concepts

18. Emerging View of C2 Process Cognitive Domain Sensemaking Understanding Command Intent Awareness Battlespace Information Domain Management Information Systems Physical Domain Battlespace Monitoring Synchronization Operating Environment

19. Information Age Impacts on C2 Richness Decisionmaking Battlespace Awareness Battle Management Reach Quality of Interaction

20. NCW Levels of Maturity Command and Control Collaborative Planning Self-synch Traditional Shared Awareness 4 3 Developing Situational Awareness Info Sharing 1 2 Organic sources 0

21. Implications for Command Arrangements • Adaptation to the Information Age should be focused on • developing shared awareness in unfamiliar situations • synchronizing effects in coalition environments • Current approaches to command arrangements will become increasingly outdated • Need to move from exclusive to inclusive • Need to change roles of headquarters, staffs, and forces • Command arrangements will need to continuously evolve • Initial “solutions” will not be anywhere near optimal • Adaptations to Information Age technologies will differ among coalition partners • Implies a federated approach to systems • Need to explore how / where partners “plug in”

22. Summary • Analysis needs to focus on tenets of NCW • A robustly networked force improves information sharing • Information sharing and collaboration enhance the quality of information and shared situational awareness • Shared situational awareness enables self-synchronization • These, in turn, dramatically increase mission effectiveness • Analysis needs to support experimentation • Co-evolution of Mission Capability Packages • A New Generation of Models is Needed to Support Analysis of Alternative Concepts. These models must be able to • represent emerging operational concepts and new approaches to C2 • “instrument” key network-centric concepts (e.g. information quality, shared awareness, synchronization) • reflect an intelligent, interactive adversary 22