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Role of the Annular Modes in Climate Variability

Role of the Annular Modes in Climate Variability. John M. Wallace University of Washington David W. J. Thompson Colorado State University. The most important variations… consist of shifts in mass between two homogeneous zones, one centered near 65°N and one centered near 35°N.

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Role of the Annular Modes in Climate Variability

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  1. Role of the Annular Modes in Climate Variability John M. Wallace University of Washington David W. J. Thompson Colorado State University

  2. The most important variations… consist of shifts in mass between two homogeneous zones, one centered near 65°N and one centered near 35°N. U55 is a good index of the principal variations of pressure differences

  3. North Atlantic Oscillation Zonal Index Cycle Annular Mode

  4. Zonal Index Cycle

  5. North Atlantic Oscillation

  6. The Annular Modes

  7. North Atlantic Oscillation Zonal Index Cycle Annular Mode 47,500 98,400

  8. 150,000 North Atlantic Oscillation Zonal Index Cycle Annular Mode 47,500 98,400

  9. Role of the Annular Modes in Climate Variability

  10. Rigor and Wallace, JCL 2002

  11. Rigor and Wallace, GRL (2000)

  12. Thompson and Solomon, Science, 2000

  13. Gillett and Thompson, Science 2003

  14. Gillett and Thompson, Science 2003

  15. Trend Annular Mode

  16. Quadrelli and Wallace, JCL 2004

  17. Annular Mode Trend total trend contribution from modes

  18. Rauthe and Paeth JCL 2004

  19. Some Outstanding Questions • Why the trend in the JFM NAM?

  20. Thompson and Solomon, in review

  21. Some Outstanding Questions • Why the trend in the JFM NAM? • Are annular modes important on time scales longer than 100 years -- Maunder Minimum

  22. Empirical GISS Model Shindell et al., Science, 2001

  23. Some Outstanding Questions • Why the trend in the JFM NAM? • Are annular modes important on time scales longer than 100 years -- Maunder Minimum -- Milankovitch cycles

  24. Gillett and Thompson, Science 2003

  25. Sensitive dependence on initial conditions Butterfly effect Lorenz model Strange Attractor 149,000

  26. Sensitive dependence on initial conditions Butterfly effect Lorenz model Strange Attractor 456,000 149,000

  27. Sensitive dependence on initial conditions Butterfly effect 1,850,000 1,940,000 Lorenz model Strange Attractor 456,000 149,000

  28. Available Potential Energy 8.860,000 Ape

  29. Available Potential Energy 8.860,000 Ape 4,770,000

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