Bernd Hansjürgens, Frank Messner UFZ - Centre for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle, Germany

1. GLOWA-ElbeGLOWA Status conference 19 May 2005 Cologne Integration in GLOWA Elbe Bernd Hansjürgens, Frank MessnerUFZ - Centre for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle, Germany

2. Project I: Integration und -coordinationIntegrative Methodological Approach GLOWA-Elbe (IMA) Project advisory board Project II: Regionalisation of Global Change Frame of Development GlobalChange Project III: Surface Water Availability Project IV: Surface Water Quality Management-options Run off regulation Nutrient entry Management level Eco-hydrological Indicators Socio-economic Indicators Eco-hydrological Indicators Socio-economic Indicators Impact- analysis Multi-criteria analysis Cost-efficiency analysis Evaluation Project V: Cross conflict field scenario analysis Regional actors, decision bodies Focus of presentation

3. 2.3.4.5. 1. • Need for a framework of an overall integrative approach Integration needs Integration needs: structure of the presentation • The key element of IWRM is integration • In this context different forms of integration are needed: • Transdisciplinary integration of stakeholders and expert knowledge • Integration of water policy fields: water quantity, water quality, floods • Integration of disciplines: finding links between natural and social sciences – building up model systems • Integration of results: support decision making in river basin management

4. Participation • Public • Policy • Agents • Agencies • NGOs • others Problems, conflicts, needs & targets 2 1 Indicators & criteria Scenarios (B) Management alternatives (A) Frame of development 3 Impact analysis Evaluation: Multi-criteria analysis, Cost-benefit analysis & Cost-effectiveness analysis 4 Stakeholder acceptance Furtherexploration Decision processes yes no 1. IMA – the overall framework of integration Integrative Methodological Approach of GLOWA Elbe (IMA) • A) External boundary conditions • e.g., • Climate Change and socioeconomic SRES B2 (Regionalisation) • Climate Change and socioeconomic SRES A1 (Liberalisation) • No climate change and …. • B) Policy options • e.g., • Introducing fertiliser charges • Changing priorities of water distribution • transferring water from other basins • ...

5. 1. Scenario derivation Research- Steps 4. Assessment 2. Indicators 3. Impact analysis global change scenarios:building up climate and socio-ec. models political measures: conflict analyses, identification of options and measures finding proper assess-ment approaches, mono- and mulitcriteria assessment of scenarios hydrological modeling for different conflict areas (building models, validation, modeling scenarios) Identification of indicators and criteria Phases indicators A.Status-QuoAnalysis climate scenarios model results status quo preliminary measures and strategies B.Status-Quo with climate change assessment functions/approaches model results status quo with climate change scenarios of socio-ec. global change model results global change scenarios conflict potentials assessment of global change scenarios C.Analysis of global change (GC) framework of development ( global change scenarios) final policy measures criteria assessment of developmental scenarios D.Analysis of GC and adjustment model results developmental scenarios developmental scenarios policy advice 1. Implementation of IMA in research phases

6. 2. Transdisciplinary integration • Transdisciplinary integration has two meanings in the literature: • a) problem-oriented research with all important scientific disciplines involved – trying to find appropriate approaches based on a mix or a synthesis of disciplinary approaches • b) involvement of decision makers, stakeholders and experts in order to transfer scientific results directly into society

7. stakeholderanalysis Identifying first management strategies GLOWA Elbe scenarios 2. Transdisciplinary integration Example: Derivation of Scenarios in GLOWA Elbe I b) analysis of institutional setting a) analysis of global change Identifying coherent regional global change scenarios in an interdisciplinary team, e.g.: Understanding actor relations and including expert and local knowledge climate change problem analysis framework of development demographic change impact analysis stakeholdermeeting (June 2002) energy production

8. water quality problems water quantity problems floods 3. Integrated analysis of related water policy fields GLOWA Elbe I • Hot spot Unstrut • Selected impacts Elbe • not considered • Water quantity problems Spree/Havel (induced by mining)

9. water quality problems water quantity problems floods • providing basic data for: • VERIS (BMBF)(close co-operation) 3. Integrated analysis of related water policy fields GLOWA Elbe II • Climate impacts • EU Policy impacts Elbe • Water quantity Elbe • emerging hot spots

10. 3. Integrated analysis of related water policy fields Science for Integrated Water Resources Management also requires:Analysis of policy objective trade-offs water quality problems water quantity problems floods GLOWA Elbe II • Climate impacts • EU Policy impacts Elbe • co-operation with • VERIS (BMBF) • Water quantity Elbe • emerging hot spots combined analysis of water quantity regulation and water quality problems combined analysis of water quantity regulation and flood protection

11. economic assessment economic water demand(frame of development) water provision Water BALance MOdel (WBALMO) Elbe  identification of interface (transfer functions) econ. evalu-ation algorithms economic assessment of scenarios 4. Integration of disciplines – model integration Rationale of integrating natural and social science modelling Energy & Mining: KaSIM Households & small trade: HAUSHALT WASSER Agriculture: RAUMIS / MODAM Industry:INDUSTRIE WASSER

12. X13 X4 Land use and regional water balance Water management (WBALMO) Nutrient load (MONERIS) Hydrological cycle and crop yields (SWIM) X1 X3 Z5 X15 Inflow Point source: Industry X2 Regionalization of global change Land use (LAND USE SCANNER) Evaporation Point source: Sewage plant Future climate (STAR) Y3 Wetlands Diffuse Source: Sealed surfaces Y5 Water suppliers Y2 Diffuse Source: Erosion Z4 Development of agricultural sector (WATSIM-RAUMIS) Industry Z3 Diffuse Source: Atmospheric Deposition Water use Y8 Z2 Mining Economics and demography (REGE) Diffuse Source: Drainage Y1 Wetlands (MODAM) Power plants Diffuse Source: Surface denudation Households / business (HAUSHALT WASSER) Y4 Irrigation Z1 Development of energy sector (IKARUS-KASIM) Industry (INDUSTRIE WASSER) Diffuse Source: Groundwater Y7 Minimal flow for conservation Energy / Mining (KASIM) Z1 Diffuse Source / Sink: Wetlands Transport on inland waterways Agriculture / Irrigation Development of water technologies Transport on inland waterways Y6 Z9 Z7 Z6 Z8 Global Change Model System of GLOWA Elbe

13. economic assessment water provision Energy & Mining: KaSIM Households & small trade: HAUSHALT WASSER identification of interface (transfer functions) Agriculture: RAUMIS / MODAM econ. evalu-ation algorithms Industry:INDUSTRIE WASSER economic assessment of scenarios 4. Integration of disciplines – model integration Rationale of integrating natural and social science modelling (example water quantity analysis) economic water demand(frame of development) Water BALance MOdel (WBALMO) Elbe 

14. Typical WBALMO result:Average yearly fulfilment of demand for different scenarios (in %, here: for industry in Upper Spree region) Typical economic benefit function for an enterprise: ? Profits = Turnover – Cost Finding the missing link between water balance modelling and economic evaluation There is no direct link between these two concepts ! Needed: transfer functions to clarify the contribution of water availability to economic benefits (or: … the vulnerability of water users to lacking water availability)

15. Typical economic benefit function for an enterprise: Profits = Turnover – Cost Example tourism at mining lakes: Finding the missing link between water balance modelling and economic evaluation Typical WBALMO result:Average yearly fulfilment of demand for different scenarios (in %, here: for industry in Upper Spree region) • Starting period of touristic use • water treatment costs Needed: transfer functions to clarify the contribution of water availability to economic benefits (or: the vulnerability of economic benefits to lacking water availability)

16. Typical economic benefit function for an enterprise: Profits = Turnover – Cost Example fish farming: Finding the missing link between water balance modelling and economic evaluation Typical WBALMO result:Average yearly fulfilment of demand for different scenarios (in %, here: for industry in Upper Spree region) • area of ponds • minimum water level of ponds(equals 77% of demand) vulnerability Based on this knowledge, transfer and benefit functions can be integrated in WBALMO ! Needed: transfer functions to clarify the contribution of water availability to economic benefits (or: the vulnerability of economic benefits to lacking water availability)

17. Results for fish farming (GLOWA Elbe I) Average profits of fish farming, 2003-2052 (in mio. Euro of 2003, 2% discount) Two water management strategies with constant climate +including climate change +including socio-economic change(subsidy cuts, liberalisation) This means: fish farming is threatened by significant profit reductions - mainly caused by socio-economic and climate change !!!

18. Decision support for policy process Ranking of strategies 5. Integration of results GLOWA Elbe II: Extension of analysis GLOWA I example: Results for pilot project Spree economic criteria (€ net benefit) water management criteria Basis Flutung RedFl OderBB OderBln GLOWA Elbe II: There are good arguments for almost all alternative strategies, decision depends on weighting of results for individual criteria Completion of results Inclusion of quality-quantity aspects Application of participatory MCA tools Inclusion of Elbe Basin aspects    

19. 6. Conclusions • Scientific support for IWRM requires multi-faceted forms of integration • The IMA approach of GLOWA Elbe offers a framework to achieve this challenging task • Important methodological tools and results emerge from this research (inclusion of economic analysis in water policy: Water Framework Directive)

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