NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations:

1. NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops David Levinson, Ph.D. Climate Monitoring Branch National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) NOAA / NESDIS Asheville, NC January 11, 2006 Coastal Weather Impacts on Society and the Environment (CWISE) Update Meeting

2. Outline and Overview • Pacific Region Integrated Data Enterprise (PRIDE) • Pacific Risk Management Ohana (PRiMO) • NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental Applications (IDEA) Center • Alaska Coastal Climatologies Wind-Wave Hindcast Workshop: • Anchorage, August 2-4, 2005 • Pacific Wave and Water Level (WWL) Hazards Data Framework Development Workshop: • Honolulu, December 5-6, 2005 2

3. Pacific Region Integrated Data Enterprise (PRIDE) • Purpose of PRIDE program: • To meet critical regional needs for ocean, climate and ecosystem information • To protect lives and property • Support economic development • Enhance the resilience of Pacific Island communities in the face of changing environmental conditions

4. PRIDE Mission • More than a traditional data activity (archive or services) • Fund external projects to accomplish goals • Integrated enterprise for environmental products and services • To strengthen delivery of ocean and ocean-related climate and ecosystem products and services to the diverse Pacific Island user community • To provide feedback mechanism to ocean and ocean-related climate and ecosystem observing systems • To provide a true focus for the regional integration and delivery of such products

5. PRIDE Team • Original Core Members: • Howard Diamond (NESDIS/NCDC) • John Kineman & Dave Clark (NESDIS/NGDC) • Eileen Shea, East-West Center (NOAA IDEA Center) • Mike Seki (NMFS/PIFSC) • Bill Thomas, John Marra, Darcee Killpack (NOAA PSC) • Jeff Payne and Cindy Fowler (NOAA CSC) • Jim Weyman, NWS/WFO Honolulu • Ed Young, NWS/PRH • Jay McCreary and Peter Hacker (IPRC) • Mailing list: • pride@noaa.gov

6. PRIDE Partners • University of Hawaii • International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) • Asia Pacific Data Research Center (APDRC) • UH Sea Level Center • NOAA National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS) • National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) • National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) • National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) • NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) • Pacific Region Headquarters • Weather Forecast Office (HNL) • Pacific ENSO Applications Center • International Tsunami Information Center (ITIC) • Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) • NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) • Pacific Islands Regional Office • Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center • Coastwatch • NOAA National Ocean Service (NOS) • Pacific Services Center (PSC) • National Marine Sanctuaries • Pacific Risk Management Ohana (PRiMO)

7. Pacific Risk Management Ohana (PRiMO) • Background and purpose: • Network of partners and stakeholders involved in the development and delivery of risk management–related information, products, and services in the Pacific region. • PRiMO was established at the 2004 Roundtable of Federal Hazard Mitigation Partners in the Pacific Islands (FHMPPI), held in Honolulu, March 2004. • Overall goal of enhancing communication, coordination, and collaboration among the `ohana of partners and stakeholders involved in this work.

8. PRiMO Hui O’ Hana • PRiMO Groups: • Observations and Data Management • Training and Education • Communications, Education, and Outreach • Risk Reduction and Post-Disaster Evaluation • Data Analysis and Decision Support Tools • Traditional Knowledge and Practices

9. PRiMO Framework

10. NOAA Integrated Data for Environmental Applications (IDEA) Center • PRIDE Funded Center: • Focus is environmental data applications • East-West Center as Institutional Incubator • Contractual arrangement between NOAA/NESDIS (NCDC), RTi and East-West Center: • 18-month initial contract period; two, one-year options • August 2005 start date (delayed till spring 2006) • Initial Core Staff: • Interim Director (Eileen Shea) • Project Assistant for Data Integration • Project Assistant for Education/Outreach • Secretary/Administrative Assistant • Other fiscal and administrative support provided by EWC

11. NOAA IDEA Center • Development of new products and services: • PRIDE 2006 solicitation & review process • Stakeholder and partnering workshops: • Two targeted workshops per year • Support for related workshops & meetings (e.g., PRiMO) • Support for regional observing systems & programs: • e.g., PI-GCOS, PacIOOS, PI-GOOS • IDEA Center strategic planning & program development • IDEA Center education and outreach: • Initial information technology systems development (if funding permits)

12. Alaska Coastal Climatologies Wind-Wave Hindcast WorkshopAnchorage: August 2-4, 2005 • OBJECTIVES • Assess agency (federal, state, NGO) needsregarding wind/wave climatologies for Alaska • Coordination with Hawaii: needs/efforts • Assess present capacity: • coastal wind/wave data availability, existing and planned observing systems (i.e. AK-IOOS) • Integration and modeling capability • Pilot Project and site selection

13. Accomplishments and Action Items • Outreach: • Identification of collaborators • Clearly established the needs of emergency managers • Links were made to HI and the Pacific region (PRiMO) and other larger efforts (e.g. IOOS) • Establishment of Stakeholder Relevant Time-Frames: • Days: “Reactive level” – emergency planning • Weeks/Months/Seasonal: “Proactive level” – anticipatory response • Several years: “Planning level” – city/county planning activities • Climate trends: “Lifecycle level” – civil engineering horizon • Establishment of data and product needs: • Modeling Issues and Requirements (40+ wave models) • Available datasets for wind-wave climatologies

14. Workshop Goals/ Immediate Outcomes • Identify Theme Areas: • Establish Theme Teams with designated Team Leaders • Identify potential models and ocean, atmospheric, terrestrial, and other parameters: • Those required to support the coastal wind/wave models. • Identify on-going similar work and potential partnerships • Establish a team to outline and write a Plan of Action and Milestones (POA&M) that: • Delivers an operational support tool to Alaskan coastal planners by the end of FY 08. • Prepare a FY06 PRIDE Proposal for FY06 activities • FY 07-08 activities and final operational deliverable.

15. Preliminary Wave Energy Hindcast Results for the Circum-Arctic Region • PI- Dr. David Atkinson (University of Alaska-Fairbanks) • Purpose: • Develop a system that will translate winds into wave energy • Driving winds – gridded dataset is desirable: • North American Regional Reanalysis for AK (32 km) • NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis • AOGCM for work with prediction scenarios • Generate climatological wave fields: • monthly totals • annual totals • period means and trends (1979-2003) • Assess contribution of ice

16. Trends in open water season length, 1950 - 2000(model initialized with observations) Melt season increasing Reduced sea ice cover

17. Storm Impacts on Coastal Erosion

18. Results from Arctic Coastal Dynamics project ACD zones, weather station locations

19. 3 Storm counts 2 4 1 5 7 6

20. Trends in storm counts - no strong trend

21. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis wind speed problem

22. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis wind speed problem

23. 1979 total ICE No ICE

24. 1998 total ICE No ICE

25. 1979 – 2003 mean ICE No ICE

26. 1979 – 2003 trends ICE No ICE

27. Wave Energy Hindcast for the Circum-Arctic Region • Preliminary Conclusions: • Trends in (circumpolar) storminess not simple linear • Ice (marine and terrestrial) must be explicitly considered for erosion work • Influence of sea ice for wave energy apparent even for this coarse approach • Wave energy trends, not just seasonal totals, influenced by sea ice conditions

28. PRiMO Wave and Water Level (WWL) Hazards Data Framework Development WorkshopUH-Manoa, EWC: December 5-6, 2005 • Workshop Objectives: • To engage subject matter experts to further develop the WWL hazards data framework • Align PRiMO’s data integration and sharing activities with related activities in the region • Establish user community familiarity with data sharing and access applications and tools • Aid in further establishing hazard and risk data management relationships that will enhance geospatial information sharing • Foster opportunities for greater collaboration in the region.

29. PRiMO Hazards Data Framework Development History – Defining of Framework Activities • March 2004 PRiMO Annual Meeting: • identified the need to facilitate data integration and sharing as one of its overall objectives. • The lack of established hazards-related theme and data standards in this regard was identified as one of PRiMO’s primary focus areas. • The task of initiating regional hazards data framework development activities was assigned to PRiMO’s Observations and Data Management Hui.

30. Waves and Water Level Integrated System, Data, and Products Architecture Tide Gauges Wave Buoys Satellites Radar, Video, etc. Systems Data Products process time frame use sector Real Time Near Real Time Delayed Mode Archived Historic Ocean Flooding Coastal Erosion Sea Level Change Tsunami NOWCASTFORECASTFUTURECAST warnings and bulletins weekly, monthly, seasonal outlook scenarios and projections Emergency Managers and Responders Mitigation Planners and Managers Ship Masters and Port Managers Recreation and Tourism

31. Proposed Natural Hazard Theme Categorization Heavy Rains/Stream Flooding Strong Winds Erosion and Landslides Severe Weather Weather and Climate Drought Wildfire Waves and Water Levels High Waves Sea Level Rise Tsunami Ocean Flooding Coastal Erosion Seismic and Volcanic Seismic Volcanic The range of natural hazards in the Pacific region are classified into 3 categories and 13 specific themes

32. The Natural Hazards Theme in a Risk Management Data Structure Geodetic Control Imagery Boundaries Etc. Hazards Data Natural Hazards Data Assets Data Human or Environmental Hazards Data Base or Framework Data Critical Facilities Economic Social Cultural Environmental Three general types of data are used in Risk Management – Base or Framework data, Hazards data, and Assets data: The focus of the ongoing PRiMO hazards data framework development initiatives are on Natural Hazards data.

33. Sea Level Change Tsunami Data ------ Dictionary Ocean Flooding Tide Stations Wave Buoys Coastal Erosion Read Me – sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector Waves and Water Level File Structure Video, radar, etc. Systems Satellites Tier 0 Waves and Water Level Data Real Time Archived Tier 1 and 2 Level 1 QA/QC Level 2 QA/QC Level 3 QA/QC Products Tier 3, 4, and 5 nowcast forecast futurecast

34. Waves and Water Level Data/Product Typology Systems Data by system Products by process and time frame by use sector Tier 0 – station/platform information (e.g., station location description, instrument specifications) Tier 1 – “raw” data (e.g., real time or near real time elevation time series) Tier 2 – “archived” data (e.g., QA/QC’d historical elevation time series) Tier 3 – “derived” products (e.g., plot of observed versus predicted tides with residuals) Tier 4 – “applied” products (e.g., plot of total water level return intervals based on GEV analysis) Tier 5 – “customized” products (e.g., flood insurance rate map) Tier 6 – “culturally-sensitive” products ? models…

35. What’s Next… • Alaska Coastal Climatologies: • FY06 PRIDE Proposal (Feb. 06) • Pilot Project Selection: • Cook Inlet • West Coast site (e.g. Kotzebue) • North Slope site (e.g. Barrow) • Hawaii Coastal Climatologies: • NOAA IDEA Center wants to “jump-start” coastal climatologies program • Hawaii pilot project focused on Wave and Water Level Hazards