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Fossil fuels: evidence of hope? A focus on CCS Jason Anderson, IEEP

Fossil fuels: evidence of hope? A focus on CCS Jason Anderson, IEEP. What price energy transformation? Berlin, 28 February 2008. www.ieep.eu. Key questions. Is CCS necessary? How do we account for energy security and other priorities? Is CCS safe?

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Fossil fuels: evidence of hope? A focus on CCS Jason Anderson, IEEP

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  1. Fossil fuels: evidence of hope?A focus on CCSJason Anderson, IEEP What price energy transformation? Berlin, 28 February 2008 www.ieep.eu

  2. Key questions • Is CCS necessary? • How do we account for energy security and other priorities? • Is CCS safe? • How can we ensure we achieve commercial low carbon fossil energy?

  3. Received wisdom • Fossil fuels are dominant now and will be into the future (IEA baseline scenario, etc). • Therefore CCS is necessary • True?

  4. IPCC AR4, 2007

  5. IEA Energy technology perspectives, 2006

  6. Greenpeace energy [R}evolution, 2007

  7. Is CCS necessary? • Aggregate figures can be misleading: • Need to know where and when specific challenges arise, e.g. new coal capacity – lock-in. • Technical potential is not the best indicator of potential • Political will • Powerful constituencies • Public acceptance • Financial considerations • Because there is no hard and fast answer the most likely course of action is dithering, with the inevitable result of disaster.

  8. How to value energy security? • Popular notion: coal = secure, gas = insecure at some point, oil = insecure but we have little choice. • What is meant by security? • At what point do we tip the balance from secure to insecure? • Gas is a crucial part of the equation, particularly if there is no CCS. • What is the implication of the desire for security on our support for coal, renewables, other? • How do we explain other support: coal subsidies, fusion research, RE subsidies, etc. • Will CCS find explicit support in this context?

  9. Is CCS safe? • Short answer: probably • Technically: likely to be well within industry capabilities to control leakage. • Main possible problem: management failures, poor decision making. • Compared to what? • Current coal emissions already a killer • Promoting diesel over petrol = dead people • A major issue: scale – it may be large

  10. How do we achieve commercialisation? • Two years ago: CCS = 40 euros/tonne, today = 100 euros/tonne – don’t fall for industry games. • Current plan: industry develops technology with help of country voluntarism, then the ET market will take over. You can see the result from here – dismal failure looms. • Need to put flesh on the bone of demonstration and commercialisation working backward from the scale of needed contributions by which date.

  11. My view… • Don’t allow CCS to be promoted as hype – either contribute or get out of the way. • If it is to be an option you can’t sit on the fence: make it prove itself by devoting public funding (which leverages private money). • The failure of CCS as an option is entirely likely if not either forced in or out: choose an option. • Subject demonstrations to defined timetables and goals. • Create a kind of requirement: emissions standard or mandatory CCS rather than leaving it to the ETS market alone. • A requirement will make alternatives to CCS even more attractive because the counterfactual probably isn’t solar energy but coal pollution (though we CAN choose for renewables if we want to). • Under any scenario the pace of RE and EE development has to outstrip the current pace by a multiple of 5 or more, so it’s time to get serious.

  12. Thank you janderson@ieep.eu

  13. Contacts London Office 28 Queen Anne's Gate London SW1H 9AB UK Tel: +44 (0)207 799 2244 Fax: +44 (0)207 799 2600 Brussels Office 55 Quai au Foin/Hooikaai B-1000 Brussels Belgium Tel: +32 (0) 2738 7482 Fax: +32 (0) 2732 4004

  14. www.ieep.eu IEEP is a not-for-profit institute dedicated to the analysis, understanding and promotion of policies for a sustainable environment in Europe

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