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Causal Analysis. Chapter 10 Pg 193. One Form. One CAUSE leads to ONE OR MORE EFFECTS. Second Form. One EFFECT has SEVERAL CAUSES. Third Form. Something causes something to happen which causes something to happen. That’s Not All!. Stop – Let’s Analyze. IS IT A Trend?

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causal analysis

Causal Analysis

Chapter 10

Pg 193

one form
One Form
second form
Second Form
third form
Third Form
  • Something causes something to happen which causes something to happen
stop let s analyze
Stop – Let’s Analyze
  • IS IT A Trend?
    • More girls going into the sciences
  • IS IT A Phenomena?
    • Divorce in America
  • IS IT AN Event?
    • 9-11
methods of analyzing
Methods of Analyzing
  • Common Factor
    • Look at all cases of a phenomenon, find a single factor that is common to all of them. That is likely the cause
      • Everyone in dormitory ate at the cafeteria
      • Everyone got sick that night
      • Everyone could have gotten sick from eating in the cafeteria
      • This can go wrong though! Correlation NOT causation
methods of analyzing1
Methods of Analyzing
  • Single Difference Method
    • In two similar situations, with only one leading to an effect
    • All children born in a hospital in 2011 are studied
    • ½ of the children were nursed, ½ were not
    • The nursed half had IQ’s that were, on average 20 points above the half who were not nursed
    • Cause of higher IQ’s is nursing
    • Problem: Correlation is not causation
methods of analyzing2
Methods of Analyzing
  • Concomitant Variation
    • Similar pattern of variation between a possible cause and a possible effect
    • Different children were given different amounts of television in their day
    • The children getting the most television had the worst GPAs
    • The children getting the least television had the best GPAs
    • Problem – Potential correlation, not causation
methods of analyzing3
Methods of Analyzing
  • Process of Elimination
    • You are fairly certain a lowfat diet causes heart patients to heal faster
    • However, some of patients have developed poor lung functions
    • Poor lung functions occurred in patients with high fat diets and patients with lowfat diets
    • Further investigation shows that a nurse has been mishandling meds to the poor lung function patients
    • The mishandled meds are the “left over” factor
    • Potential correlation – not causation
keys to causal analysis
Keys to Causal Analysis
  • Pay attention to effects
    • Dalamations
  • Identify what is at stake
    • Creationism
  • Move beyond the obvious to see underlying cause
    • Address all causes not just the ones you are focusing on to see CUMULATIVE effects
  • Avoid mistaking correlation for causation
    • Deaths by drowning and baseball games increase during the same time period
your turn
Your Turn
  • Pg 198
  • Pg 205
  • Pg 212
  • Pg 236
stay on track
Stay On Track
  • Explain why it matters
    • Readers need to know why the cause/effect is important
    • Set up for the position AND the problem solution paper
  • Make an arguable claim
    • Easy answers are bad arguments!
    • If all sources agree about the cause and effect, there is no need for you to make another argument
    • Look for a phenomenon that isn’t fully agreed upon
your paper
Your Paper
  • List trends and/or problems on right side of your paper
  • List causes of the problems on the right side
  • Underline the causes you are most confident in
  • Which topics are most interesting?
    • If an entry has many underlined causes or effects, it may be too obvious
  • What causal factors are hidden from the general public and why?
  • How do causal factors interact?
  • What causes the cause – follow the cycle backward
analyze your audience
Analyze your Audience
  • Think about who is affected by the phenomenon you are investigating
  • How will those interested be affected by your analysis?
research your analysis
Research your analysis
  • Seek out disagreement among your sources
  • When they disagree ask why!
  • Lookout for new potential causes or new findings