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NOAA Coral Reef Watch SST-Based Products Briefing for OPOP, March 18, 2009

NOAA Coral Reef Watch SST-Based Products Briefing for OPOP, March 18, 2009. Coral Reef Watch website: http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/. Top Threats to Reefs. Human Population Growth Overfishing Coastal Development Lack of Laws / Enforcement Sedimentation (unnatural)

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NOAA Coral Reef Watch SST-Based Products Briefing for OPOP, March 18, 2009

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  1. NOAA Coral Reef Watch SST-Based Products Briefing for OPOP, March 18, 2009 Coral Reef Watch website: http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/

  2. Top Threats to Reefs • Human Population Growth • Overfishing • Coastal Development • Lack of Laws / Enforcement • Sedimentation (unnatural) • Lack of Education • Nutrient Enrichment • Algal Competition • Climate Change / Bleaching • Habitat Destruction • Tourism • Ocean Acidification • 2004 Survey: 276 Coral Reef Scientists • Kleypas and Eakin (2007) 2

  3. Products Using SST • Operational Products All use operational nightime-only SST • SST • SST Anomaly • HotSpot • Degree Heating Week • Virtual Stations • Satellite Bleaching Alerts • [operational September 2002] • [Sep 2002] • [Sep 2002] • [Sep 2003] • [Sep 2003] • [Jul 2005] 3

  4. Operational Products 50km Nighttime SST from OSDPD

  5. Operational Products 50km Nighttime SST SST Anomaly

  6. Operational Products 50km Nighttime SST SST Anomaly HotSpot Coral-specific

  7. Operational Products 50km Nighttime SST SST Anomaly HotSpot Degree Heating Weeks Coral-specific

  8. Operational Products Virtual Stations

  9. Virtual Stations Operational Products =================================================================== ** [CRW Alert 20070711] Sombrero Reef: Bleaching Warning =================================================================== Satellite observations: 9 July 2007 - 11 July 2007 -- Bleaching Degree Heating Weeks : 0.5 Deg C-week -- Historical Maximum Degree Heating Weeks : 9.2 Deg C-week (2005) -- Coral bleaching HotSpot : 1.0 Deg C -- Sea surface temperature : 30.3 Deg C -- Maximum Monthly Mean SST at site : 29.3 Deg C Previous Three Alerts for Sombrero Reef: --06/25/2007 Bleaching Watch --10/07/2006 No Stress --09/11/2006 Bleaching Watch Reef site name: Sombrero Reef SST Pixel latitude: 25.0 SST Pixel longitude: -81.5 Current Status: Bleaching Warning =================================================================== Automatic Satellite Bleaching Alerts • Currently available for 190 sites • > 370 subscribers

  10. Products Using SST • Experimental Products • Enhanced 50-km (E50) • Bleaching forecasts • Ocean acidification • Higher resolution products • Insolation • Coral disease risk • SST Source • OSDPD & Pathfinder • OSDPD & Reynolds • Reynolds w/ AMSR-E • New AVHRR, • GOES/POES/Radar? Blended, others? • GOES or blended • ? 10

  11. Enhanced 50-km • Experimental Enhanced Coral Bleaching Product Suite Operational Enhanced • Improved land mask • Operational land mask excludes 60% of world’s coral reefs • New land mask excludes only 6% • Improved climatology • Based on 4-km Pathfinder SST • Improved performance compared to operational • Now in testing phase • Expected to become operational by FY10 Uses existing OSDPD AVHRR SST and Pathfinder 11

  12. Bleaching Forecast • Experimental Seasonal Coral Bleaching Forecast • Launched new bleaching forecast system from SST climate models: • Based on Linear Inverse Modeling SST Forecast (ESRL) • Thermal stress prediction from HotSpot and DHW algorithms • Coral bleaching predictions up to 4 months ahead • Joint effort of Coral Reef Watch and the Earth System Research Laboratory 12 12

  13. Bleaching Forecast Skill analysis Correlations between SST anomaly verifications vs their predictions. 1982-2007 (26 years) NOAA EPSL uses Reynolds OISST for LIM model

  14. Ocean Acidification Reynolds OISST due to need for AMSR-E to penetrate clouds

  15. High Resolution • In Development: New Hi-Resolution SST • 1-km AVHRR SST for the Great Barrier Reef captured at Australia HRPT station • Development of an experimental high-resolution (1 km) product suite for the Great Barrier Reef region will include new climatology, land mask, and daily SST • improved resolution over the next few years, with experimental suites at 10-km,7-km, 4-km, and 1-km. • will serve as the basis for the development of a global high resolution product suite • What is the optimal resolution? AVHRR Clear Sky, GOES/POES/Microwave Blended, others SST for the Great Barrier Reef from NOAA-18 at 1-km resolution. 15

  16. Light Stress World Bank CRTR, UNAM, U. Queensland, U. Exeter, University of Tasmania, BoM Development of a satellite algorithm to predict severity and mortality of a coral bleaching event Using a combination of satellite light and temp. GOES or GOES/POES Blended 16

  17. Coral Disease • James Cook U., AIMS, • World Bank CRTR, including: • Cornell U., U. Puerto Rico, UNAM, • U. Guam, UH, NOAA and others. • Satellite algorithm to predict outbreaks of coral disease • Based on satellite SST and coral cover SST: same as operational suite 17

  18. Future Needs • Higher resolution • Global geostationary coverage • Accurate navigation • Cloud penetration – microwave SST • Diurnal variability and pattern • Improved SST accuracy • Minimal landmask loss • Full reprocessing of new data • needed for climatology and hindcasts 18

  19. What is Bleaching? • Corals can “bleach” due to stress • Corals exposed to high temperatures and/or high light become stressed • Corals eject their algae; coral appears “bleached” • If stress is mild or brief, corals recover, otherwise they die zooxanthellae • Most of corals’ food comes from photosynthesis Scott R. Santos Symbiotic algae

  20. What is Bleaching? 1999 1995 1998 Widespread bleaching in Belize (from Aronson and Precht 1997, 2001)

  21. Products 12 weeks Σ( HotSpot value × duration ) ≥ 1°C SST Bleaching threshold (MMMSST+1ºC) Maximum Monthly Mean SST Climatology (MMMSST) Week-0 Time Week-12 a b c d HotSpots Degree Heating Weeks ≥ 4 DHWs coral bleaching is expected ≥ 8 DHWs mass bleaching and mortality are expected http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov

  22. Products In situ data, Puerto Morelos, Mexico, 2005 Doldrums Product, Caribbean, 08/08/2005 Units=Doldrums Days Severe bleaching observed • Experimental Doldrums v2.0 • Implemented enhanced doldrums product with improved algorithm • Now incorporates 6-hourly NCDC Blended Sea Winds and climatology • Evaluates persistence and intensity of low wind events • Validated to coral bleaching events during low wind and low thermal stress 23

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