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Improvement in forecast skill from 1981-2003 for ECMWF 5-km hemispheric flow pattern PowerPoint Presentation
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Improvement in forecast skill from 1981-2003 for ECMWF 5-km hemispheric flow pattern - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Highlights of the past recent decades. Improvement in forecast skill from 1981-2003 for ECMWF 5-km hemispheric flow pattern. Increased evidence of human impact:Antarctic ozone hole. TOMS (Total OzoneMapping Spectrometer) satellite.

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

Highlights of the past recent decades

Improvement in forecast skill from 1981-2003

for ECMWF 5-km hemispheric flow pattern

slide2

Increased evidence of human impact:Antarctic ozone hole

TOMS (Total OzoneMapping Spectrometer) satellite

slide4

Increased evidence of human impact: Greenhouse Warming

Carbon Dioxide

Monthly-mean C02 concentrations, 1958-2002

slide6

Links to Climate Dynamics: The Arctic

Fig. xx, left panel: Sea ice concentration

Anomalies for September 2002, 2003,

and 2004, along with the 1979-2000

median September ice edge (pink line),

derived from passive microwave satellite

imagery. These reveal that sea ice

extent reached a record minimum in

Sept. 2002, followed by two more

low-ice years. While sea ice decline

can result from natural variability associated

with the dynamical Arctic Oscillation (AO),

greenhouse warming also favors the

AO phase most conducive to warming.

Image courtesy of NSIDC, Boulder, CO

(http://nsidc.org/)

Arctic surface air temperatures have

observed to increase in the past 50 years

in Alaska and Siberia, with a cooling in

Southern Greenland.

Additional declines of roughly

10-50% in annual average sea-ice

extent are projected by 2100 in

model simulations. Loss of sea

ice is projected to be greater during

summer than in the annual average.

Top and left Figures provided by

The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

(http://www.acia.uaf.edu).

slide7

Overview of the atmosphere: Coordinate System Convention

dx = r dcos

dy = r d

is longitude, is latitude

x positive east, y positive north

1 degree latitude = 111 km

at greenwich

slide8

Atmosphere very thin: 99.9% of air

  • Mass in a layer < 1% of Earth’s radius
  • r approximated as the Earth’s radius

~ 6.37 * 106 m