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National Bureau of Statistics of PRC. Improvements on the Issues of 12 th Workshop: Finance, Health, Education and Owner Occupied Dwelling Estimation . LU Feng Department of National Accounts, NBS 30 Nov., 2009 Haikou, China. Finance: Banking Industry. 1. FISIM Estimation

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National bureau of statistics of prc 1335348

National Bureau of Statistics of PRC

Improvements on the Issues of 12th Workshop: Finance, Health, Education and Owner Occupied Dwelling Estimation

LU Feng

Department of National Accounts, NBS

30 Nov., 2009 Haikou, China


National bureau of statistics of prc 1335348

Finance: Banking Industry

1. FISIM Estimation

From 2008, the NBS begins to use reference rate approach to calculate the FISIM, which is an important improvement in the GDP estimation of China.


National bureau of statistics of prc 1335348

Finance: Banking Industry

1. FISIM Estimation

Old method:

FISIM = (Loan interest revenue - Deposit interest expense)

+(Revenue from transactions with financial institutions

- Expense from transactions with financial institutions)

+ Investment revenue

+ Rental revenue


National bureau of statistics of prc 1335348

Finance: Banking Industry

1. FISIM estimation

New method:

FISIM for the depositors = Annual average deposits of financial institutions × Reference rate – Actual interest payment of deposits

FISIM for the borrowers = Actual interest income of loans – Annual average loans of financial institutions ×Reference rate


National bureau of statistics of prc 1335348

Finance: Banking Industry

1. FISIM estimation

New method:

Total FISIM = FISIM for the depositors + FISIM for the borrowers

Where,

Reference rate = (Deposit rate + Loan rate) ÷ 2


National bureau of statistics of prc 1335348

Finance: Banking Industry

2. The central bank of China – the People’s Bank of China now is treated as enterprise institution in GDP estimation. Before, it was treated as government institution.


National bureau of statistics of prc 1335348

Finance: Securities Industry

1. Real VAD Estimation

The real value-added estimation of securities now uses volume extrapolation approach instead of single deflation approach.


National bureau of statistics of prc 1335348

Finance: Securities Industry

1. Real VAD Estimation

Old method:

Real VAD = Nominal VAD / Deflator

where the deflator is equal to the weighted average of CPI and IPI (Investment Price Index).


National bureau of statistics of prc 1335348

Finance: Securities Industry

1. Real VAD Estimation

New method:

Real VAD = Real VAD of last year

× Stock transaction volume index


National bureau of statistics of prc 1335348

Finance: Securities Industry

2. Nominal VAD is subdivided into more detailed level to calculate. According to the Second Economic Census’s data, value added of securities is subdivided into three parts, which are securities, fund and futures.


National bureau of statistics of prc 1335348

Finance: Securities Industry

3. The treatment of stamp duty on securities transactions is improved. Now only stamp duty of securities transactions paid by agencies is treated as production tax of securities, not including stamp duty on securities transactions paid by individuals.


National bureau of statistics of prc 1335348

Finance: Insurance Industry

Real VAD Estimation

Real VAD estimation still uses the single deflation method, but the deflator is improved.


National bureau of statistics of prc 1335348

Finance: Insurance Industry

Real VAD Estimation

Old method:

Deflator = Weighted average of CPI and IPI

New method:

Deflator = (Investment revenue / Insurance output) × Deflator of securities + [(Insurance output - Investment revenue) ÷ Insurance output] × Weighted average of CPI and IPI


National bureau of statistics of prc 1335348

Health

Real VAD Estimation

Real VAD estimation still uses the single deflation method, but the deflator is improved.


National bureau of statistics of prc 1335348

Health

Real VAD Estimation

In the old method, the deflator was the health care and personal articles price index, while in the new method the deflator is the health care price index.


National bureau of statistics of prc 1335348

Education

Real VAD Estimation

As education includes both market activities and nonmarket activities, now we use the average of deflation method result and quantity extrapolation method result as the real VAD result of education.


National bureau of statistics of prc 1335348

Education

Real VAD Estimation

Old method:

Real VAD = Nominal VAD / Education price index


National bureau of statistics of prc 1335348

Education

Real VAD Estimation

New method:

Real VAD = (Real VAD_Def + Real VAD_Exa) / 2

Where,

Real VAD_Def = Nominal VAD / Education price index

Real VAD_Exa = Real VAD of last year × employee

number index


National bureau of statistics of prc 1335348

Owner Occupied Dwelling

Real VAD Estimation

The real value-added estimation of Owner Occupied Dwellingnow uses volume extrapolation approach instead of single deflation approach.


National bureau of statistics of prc 1335348

Owner Occupied Dwelling

Real VAD Estimation

Old method:

Real VAD = Nominal VAD / Deflator

where the deflator is the renting price index of houses.

New method:

Real VAD = Real VAD of last year × Floor space of

residents index