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WaterGAP -overview-

Center for Environmental Systems Research - University of Kassel Possible impacts of climate change on water availability – sensitivity anlysis and response surfaces M. Weiß and J. Alcamo. WaterGAP -overview-.

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WaterGAP -overview-

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  1. Center for Environmental Systems Research - University of Kassel Possible impacts of climate change on water availability – sensitivity anlysis and response surfacesM. Weiß and J. Alcamo

  2. WaterGAP-overview- • Physiograhic, socio-economic and climate data to model globally current and future water availability and water uses • The hydrological model calculates daily water balances on a 0.5 x 0.5 degrees grid call basis • The water use model calculates water withdrawals for the different sectors household, industry (manufacturing and electricity production) and agriculture (livestock and irrigation). • By comparison of water availability and water use we can calculate various water stress factors on a river basin scale

  3. Sensitivity analysis and response surfaces • The European continent is covered by more than 6000 cells at a typical size of about 35 km to 55 km (depending on latitude) • 18 case study river basins selected

  4. Response of water availability to climate variations • Sensitivity analysis I • based on the 1961-1990 climate averages (CRU, New et al., 2000) • changes in longterm annual temperature averages (-5°C - +5°C) • and longterm annual precipitation averages (-50% - +100%) • preliminary analysis of changes in the longterm average river discharge • preliminary analysis of changes in the longterm average yearly flow regime (monthly mean discharges) • first studies on impact thresholds

  5. Response of water availability to climate variations annual variation, longterm average discharges SA I

  6. Response of water availability to climate variations annual variation, longterm average discharges

  7. Response of water availability to climate variations annual variation, longterm average discharges dT=0°C=const dP=0%=const dT=+5°C=const dP=+100%=const

  8. Response of water availability to climate variations annual variation, longterm average discharges

  9. Response of water availability to climate variations annual variation, longterm average discharges dT=0°C=const dP=0%=const dT=+5°C=const dP=+100%=const

  10. Response of water availability to climate variations annual variation, longterm average discharges Guadalquivir (Southern Europe) Danube (Central Europe) Lule (Northern Europe) In their response, the river basins can be divided into the three groups: northern, central, and southern European basins Fig.: RS for northern, central, southern European catchments

  11. Response of water availability to climate variations annual variation, longterm monthly mean discharges

  12. Threshold studies • competitive uses a) within society itself, i.e. the different sectors b) society vs. environment. • various operational thresholds, e.g. minimum flows for hydropower • Envrionmental flow, e.g. thresholds based on technical guidance from the EU Water Framework Directive • water stress indicators • return intervalls of extremes, e.g. drought frequencies • Thresholds are sector-, region- and system-dependent •  global water studies

  13. Response of water availability to climate variations • Sensitivity analysis II • based on the 1961-1990 climate averages (CRU TS 2.1, Mitchell and Jones, 2005) • changes in longterm seasonal temperature averages (JJA) (-3°C - +3°C) • and longterm seasonal precipitation averages (JJA) (-50% - +50%) • preliminary analysis of changes the longterm mean summer river discharge

  14. Response of water availability to climate variations seasonal variation, longterm average discharges SA II (JJA)

  15. Perturbed Physics Experiment

  16. Response of water availability to climate variations annual variation, longterm average discharge 1990-2010 2080-2100

  17. Response of water availability to climate variations annual variation, longterm average discharge 1990-2010 2080-2100

  18. Points of discussion • relationship between annual and seasonal climate changes • coupling function • Interpolation of climate information • probabilities

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