The Cuban update and U.S. Cuba Relations - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Cuban update and U.S. Cuba Relations

Dr. Raúl Rodríguez Rodríguez

Center For Hemispheric and United States Studies, University of Havana

• World Economic Crisis 2008
• 2008 Cuba hit by two hurricanes “ back to back”
• Demographic Change, low population growth
• Low GDP growth rates

Draft Guide for Economic and Social Policy, October, 2010

• Submitted to workplace debate and neighborhood debate
• Approved by party congress and national assembly
• No definite timetable to implement
• Some Implementation through pilot projects

• Downsizing of state apparatus and payrolls.
• Expansion of private individual property and non agricultural cooperatives. (35% of GDP by 2015)
• Redistribution of land from big state farms in usufruct.
• Reform credit policy for private and individual activity.
• Reform State enterprises, eliminating subsidies and granting more autonomy.

• New Law of foreign investment
• All sectors open to FDI ( except health, education and the military )
• A more expedite and less centralized process of approval FDI.
• Creation of Special Development Zones.
• Assurances against expropriation, tax breaks and other incentives to foreign investors.
• Cuban employment agency as facilitator, workers can negotiate contract with foreign employers.

• New Credit Policy
• Price and monetary reform
• Update Cuban tax code
• Salary reform ( Doctors and health workers)
• Elimination of the dual currency system

( Process started, no timetable defined)

• Process of transfer from the old to the new generation.
• Constitutional reform. ( limit mandate of government and elected officials)
• Removing excessive prohibitions. ( most significantly travel, emigration and relation with Cubans abroad)

• Cuba has diplomatic relations with 184 states
• Continued Internationalist cooperation ( South – South )
• Relations with 34 Western Hemisphere states, except the U.S.
• Increased prestige in the LAC region ( guarantor of Colombian peace process)
• Diversify trading partners
• Renegotiating foreign debt

• 2008 expectations ( Obama Administration toned down rhetoric)
• Few initial changes “ campaign promises” to Cubans in the U.S.
• People to people academic and cultural exchanges (Purposeful travel)
• Renewed some level of contact and technical cooperation

• Drug interdiction ( Coast Guard )
• Alien smuggling interdiction
• Aviation Security
• Military to Military (Guantanamo “Gate Talks”)
• Response to Oil Spills ( Multilateral Mexico, Bahamas, United States, Cuba)

• Renewed talks evaluate migration accords ( every six months)
• Talks to reestablish direct postal service between Cuba and the U.S.
• More talks on aviation safety and security
• Frequent “fact finding visits ” of members of the U.S. legislative branch

• The most comprehensive set of U.S. sanction on any country.
• Strict economic sanctions with extraterritorial implications ( fines to banks and travel companies)
• Efforts to subvert the Cuban internal political order. ( Radio and TV Broadcasts and USAID “democracy promotion” programs)
• Unilaterally keeping Cuba on the list countries that sponsor terrorism.

• United Nations General Assembly rejects the U.S. embargo of Cuba ( 188-3)
• European Union and Cuba have started a political dialogue to normalize relations
• U.S. policy is isolated in the region of Latin America and the Caribbean

• Growing consensus in the U.S. Society in favor of modifying the policy ( Polls, Newspaper editorials, statements by political strategist and candidates for office )
• Changes in the Cuban American perceptions of Cuba and Americans perception of the Cuban right wing role.
• Increased travel of U.S. and Cuban Americans

( 332 flights June-July 2013)

• Cuba is changing in search for its own indigenous, prosperous and sustainable socio economic system.
• Cuba seeks collective security and is not a threat to the U.S.
• Cuba is not Isolated in terms of trade and diplomacy.
• Cuban Government has offered to start a dialogue with U.S. at any level, on any topic and any place and time.

• State policy not a government policy designed for regime change
• Dominated by historical and geopolitical considerations
• Lacks consistency and legitimacy
• Counter productive from a liberal point of view