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The Long Road to Recovery

The Long Road to Recovery. Matthew N. Murray, Ph.D. July 1, 2009. Deep Recession-Years to Regain Lost Ground.

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The Long Road to Recovery

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  1. The Long Road to Recovery Matthew N. Murray, Ph.D. July 1, 2009

  2. Deep Recession-Years to Regain Lost Ground -Recession will be the longest since the Great Depression-Mixed signals now emerging, indication of a possible bottom to current cycle-Recession might be deemed over in 3rd or 4th quarter-Very strong growth rates may then take place because economic activity is at such depressed levels-But levels of economic activity will not be restored for several years—jobs, home starts, car sales, tax revenue Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville

  3. Real GDP: 2005 to 2012 Source: IHS Global Insight, Inc. Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville

  4. U.S. Residential Fixed Investment and Nonresidential Fixed Investment in Equipment & Software and Structures: 2005 to 2012 Source: IHS Global Insight, Inc. Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville

  5. Housing Starts and Light Vehicle Sales:2005 to 20012 (millions, annual rate) Source: IHS Global Insight, Inc. Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville

  6. Tennessee Building Permits:Jan-2005 to May-2009 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey (as reported in the State of the Cities Data System [SOCDS] database). Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville

  7. FHFA Housing Price Index: 2005 to 2012 Source: IHS Global Insight, Inc. Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville

  8. $561 Billion Stimulus Injection2009–2010 Boost to GDP Source: IHS Global Insight, Inc. Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville

  9. U.S. Payroll Employment: Jan-08 to May-09 (seasonally adjusted) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville

  10. U.S. Nonfarm Employment: 2005 to 2012 Source: IHS Global Insight, Inc. Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville

  11. TN Nonfarm Employment: Jan-08 to May-09 (seasonally adjusted) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville

  12. Tennessee Nonfarm Employment:2006 to 2011 (seasonally adjusted) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; IHS Global Insight, Inc.; and CBER-UT. Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville

  13. Unemployment Rate, May 2009 Tennessee 10.7%United States 9.4% Less than 9.0% 9.0% to 11.9% 12.0% to 14.9% 15.0% to 17.9% 18.0% to 20.9% 21.0% or higher Note: County data are not seasonally adjusted. Source: Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development. Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville

  14. TN Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims and Benefits Paid: Jan-07 to Apr-09 Source: U.S. Department of Labor. Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville

  15. Year-Over-Year Change in Real Major Taxes:2004.1 to 2008.4 Source: U.S. Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis. Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville

  16. TN Tax Collections, Total and Sales & Use:Jan-07 to Apr-09 Source: Tennessee Department of Revenue, Revenue Collections, monthly. Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville

  17. TN Realty Transfer & Mortgage Tax Collections: Jan-05 to May-09 Source: Tennessee Department of Revenue, Revenue Collections, monthly. Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville

  18. TN Long-Term Forecast, Revenue Collections(millions of dollars) Source: William F. FoxCBER-UTMay 11, 2009 Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville

  19. Center for Business & Economic Research College of Business AdministrationThe University of Tennessee, Knoxville716 Stokely Management Center916 Volunteer BoulevardKnoxville, Tennessee 37996-0570 phone: 865.974.5441fax: 865.974.3100http://cber.bus.utk.edu Matthew N. Murray, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville

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