Politics and Development A case for Burundi and Rwanda

1. Politics and DevelopmentA case for Burundi and Rwanda Prepared and presented by Nguyen ThiHai Yen & Kigozi Jimmy Andrew

2. Summary Rwanda and Burundi are two countries with almost the same surface area, factor endowments and ethnic diversity with similar language (kirundi and kinyarwanda) but these countries are becoming socially, politically and economically different lately. One is merging as a success story of peace and reconciliation, economic growth and stability with welfare enhancement of its people while the other seems to move in the opposite direction. The underlying factor for the slow economic growth and in some cases stagnation of Burundi’s economic performance is largely due to conflicts and political unrests within the country over the past decades unlike Rwanda which suffered immensely in the 1994 genocide but used it as an opportunity for reconciliation and as a platform to collectively build the country irrespective of ones ethnic background. Burundi is however back on its feet ready to walk and possibly run later.

3. Presentation outline • Rwanda and Burundi at a glance • Current and historical political developments • ODA performance • Plans and strategies for economic development • The future of Rwanda and Burundi

4. Location on world Map

5. Map of Africa Burundi

6. Quick facts • Independence in 1962 • Joined EAC on 6th July 2009 • Both had genocides (1959, 1994) • National language: French • Kirundi and Kinyarwanda are the same • Rwanda had its worst GDP growth rate in history at -41.89% • Forested and mountainous

7. Economic Growth indicatorsGDP growth

8. Economic Growth indicators Cont….Other Indicators (2012)

9. BURUNDI

10. BurundiHistorical background • Before independence, Burundi’s economy was integrated with that of Rwanda and Congo, the three Belgian colonies, using Bujumbura as the industrial base serving Burundi, Rwanda and Eastern Congo. • Until Congo’s independence in 1960, this area used the same currency. • Congo adopted its own currency after independence in 1960 but Burundi and Rwanda currency union was terminated only in 1964, two years after the two countries gaining independence. • Political independence led to Rwanda and Eastern Congo to create their own industries. • Disintegration of the common market was damaging to Burundi’s economy. Following the loss of the Rwandese and Eastern Congolese markets in addition to the loss of qualified manpower after the Belgians left Burundi. • At the political level, Belgium’s colonial’s policy was based on divide et impera. (Hutu majority under Tutsi minority) Belgian ‘scholars’ went out to show that Tutsis were a superior race born to rule while Hutus were inferior. • In 1959, Belgians turned the Tutsi down creating more ethnic divisions and

11. Historical background (Cont..) • Despite Belgian efforts to divide Burundians, the struggle for independence assembled politicians from the two major ethnic groups in UPRONA and included Hutus as well as Tutsis in its highest leadership structures.. The party won legislative elections in September 1961 leading to independence on 1 July 1962. • Rarely did governments between 1962-1970 last more than a year

12. Burundi Growth ExperienceLargely categorized in 3 phrases • 1960-1972:Economic decline and institutional instability • Large trade deficits due to Congo and Rwanda break off from the economic union • Economic growth lower than Africa’s average • 1972-1988: Political Repression and Expansion of the Basis for Rents • Mass killings among Hutu and Tutsis in 1972 • From 1975, country embarked on investment programs • Period of high export earnings from coffee • Creation of public corporations. A.k.a loss making corporations • Widening budget deficits and cost of servicing debts • 1988 civil war worsened the economic difficulties

13. Growth experience cont.. 3.1988- today: War and Economic Decline • War catalyzed grievances between the major groups • International community conditioned aid to Burundi to political inclusion of Hutus • 1996- total economic embargo by the neighboring countries due to a military coup by Maj. Piere Buyoya who had lost 1993 elections. • The international community followed suit by suspending its cooperation with Burundi. • Birth of illegal trade (exporting and importing strategic products illegally) • Corruption reached new heights with inflation of Burundi franc reaching levels never seen before. • Poverty became the order of the day • Although the embargos were removed, wars are still to some extent dominating Burundi sending the economy to a siesta.

14. 1960s, 70s, 80s and 90s in Burundi(Can it be referred to as the lost 40 years???)

15. 2000s. A new era for BurundiAug 2000 • A peace agreement was signed between the Hutu and Tutsi creating a political transition that has seen more security being put into place, as well as international aid and investments.

16. FDI Inflows

17. Amount of DAC Countries’ ODA Disbursement to Burundi Net official development assistance received (current US$)

18. Government strategies for poverty reduction and economic growth • Strengthening rule of law, consolidating good governance and gender equality promotion • Rehabilitating the justice system • Promoting human rights • Strengthening security • Strengthening democratic process • Transforming the economy to generate sustainable job creating growth • Increasing productivity in sectors with growth potential • Expansion of food crop production • Promoting cultural heritage and tourism potential • Promoting private sector and job creation • Quality infrastructure development with special focus on ICT and electricity production • Promoting regional integration and cooperation

19. Government strategies for poverty reduction and economic growth. Cont… • Improving access and quality in basic social services • Increasing capacity and quality of education system (vocational and higher education, scientific research, healthcare • Control population growth • Promoting development through sustainable environmental and space management • Pollution control and management • Balanced regional development

20. Rwanda

21. Quick History • Three phases • Rwanda as a Belgium colony and road to Independence • 1994 Genocide • Post 1994 • Rwanda as a Belgium colony and road to independence • Ethnic conflicts • In reality, the difference was occupational and not ethnic • Worsened in 1933 when Belgium demanded everyone to carry a national identity card. This was a main tool for appointments and access to services • Supposedly Tutsi were tall and thin, while Hutu were short and square???????

22. Rwanda under Belgium and road to Independence Cont.. • Despite of instilling great hate among Hutus and Tutsis, these two major groups formed a coalition to fight against the Belgium rule • Rwanda, which became a part of German East Africa in 1890, was first visited by European explorers in 1854. During World War I, it was occupied in 1916 by Belgian troops. • After the war, it became a Belgian League of Nations mandate, along with Burundi, under the name of Ruanda-Urundi. The mandate was made a UN trust territory in 1946. Until the Belgian Congo achieved independence in 1960. • Rwanda-Urundi was administered as part of that colony. Belgium at first maintained Tutsi dominance but eventually encouraged power sharing between Hutu and Tutsi. Ethnic tensions led to civil war, forcing many Tutsi into exile. When Rwanda became the independent nation of Rwanda on July 1, 1962, it was under Hutu rule.

23. The 1994 Genocide

24. A Bird’s view • Hutus begin to form a nationalist party (Parmahutu) to fight for their rights in 1959 • Ethnic differences escalated right after Belgians leaving the country • Major conflict was hatched in 1990-1993+ • The Arusha peace Agreements called for an end to these conflicts and while the president (Habyalimana), a Hutu was on his way back to Kigali with the Burundi president on April 6th 1994, he was killed. Both presidents died. • This marked the spark to the genocide. • Hutus decided to put an end to the Tutsis by wiping them off the Rwanda arena • It took 100 days and approximately 1M lives. Created several widows, orphans and refugees many of which are still staying in neighboring countries. (famous movies: 100days in Rwanda, Sometimes in April, Hotel Rwanda) • The economy grew to its worst ever (-41.89%)

25. Genocide Conti.. • Hundreds of roadblocks were set up by the Hutu militia around the country • Lieutenant-General Dallaire of the UN Peacekeeping Force and UNAMIR, escorting Tutsis in Kigali, were unable to do anything as Hutus kept escalating the violence and even started targeting the peacekeepers themselves • Tutsi refugees form groups in neighboring countries led by Paul Kagame and formed the Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF) • This was not only to protect the Tutsis who were killed but liberate the entire country

26. Questions Still Exist • Why didn’t the US do anything? • Why didn’t the UN listen to Daillaire? • How could people kill their neighbors? • How many actually died? • How can we prevent this from happening again?

27. Post Genocide • After its military victory in July 1994, the Rwandese Patriotic Front organized a coalition government similar to that established by President Juvénal Habyarimana in 1992 called the Broad Based Government of National Unity. Its fundamental law is based on a combination of the constitution, the Arusha accords, and political declarations by the parties. • Political organizing was banned until 2003. The first post-war presidential and legislative elections were held in August and September 2003, respectively. • The biggest problems facing the government are reintegration of more than 2 million refugees returning from as long ago as 1959; the end of the insurgency and counter-insurgency among ex-military and Interahamwe militia and the Rwandan Patriotic Army, The prison population also surged to more than 100,000 in the 3 years after the war. Trying this many suspects of genocide will tax Rwanda's resources sorely. • The current government prohibits any form of discrimination by gender, ethnicity, race or religion. The government has also passed laws prohibiting emphasis on Hutu or Tutsi identity in most types of political activity. • The country joined Commonwealth of Nations in 2009 making the country one of only two in the Commonwealth without British colonial past and in the same year joined the east African community

28. The future of Rwanda is not just bright. Its very bright!WHY? • Rwanda Vision 2020. Underlying pillars • Reconstruction of the nation and its social capital anchored on good governance, underpinned by a capable state; • Transformation of agriculture into a productive, high value, market oriented sector, with forward linkages to other sectors • Development of an efficient private sector spearheaded by competitiveness and entrepreneurship • Comprehensive human resources development, encompassing education, health, and ICT skills. aimed at public sector, private sector and civil society. To be integrated with demographic, health and gender issues • Infrastructural development, entailing improved transport links, energy and water supplies and ICT networks; Promotion of regional economic integration and cooperation.

29. Success stories • Rwanda scores better than the average Sub-Saharan African country in political rights and political stability in 2009 • Average GDP growth is higher than Africa’s average • Governance and Anti-corruption. The World Governance Indicators show significant progress in areas such as government effectiveness, rule of law, regulatory quality and anti-corruption. Transparency International ranked Rwanda 66th out of 178 countries surveyed in 2010 in terms of corruption, an improvement from 89th out of 180 countries surveyed in 2009. • Competitiveness. Rwanda’s overall ranking in the 2011 Global Competitiveness Survey improved 10 places to 70th out of 142 countries and 3rd in sub-Saharan Africa. • Strong and well-functioning institutions, efficient labour markets, and low levels of corruption.

30. Success stories conti.. • Business Environment. Rwanda has registered marked improvements in business environment and been commended as one of the top five reformers in sub-Saharan Africa. Indeed Rwanda ranked 58 out of 183 countries surveyed in 2010 by the Doing Business report compared to 150 out of 178 countries in 2008. • Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The 2010 MDG progress report notes that Rwanda is on course to meeting three of the eight MDGs. These are attainment of universal primary education for both males and female children, reducing mortality and gender equality. Number of parliamentary seats for example held by women increased from 17% in 1994 to 52% in 2008, the highest in the world

31. Key strength • Regional integration and trade • ICT and services hub • Tourism • Peace and stability in the Great Lakes region (other than the recent case in Congo DRC)

32. ODA to Rwanda (1990-2008) Postwar recovery Towards longer term growth And poverty reduction

33. ODA to Rwanda (1990-2008, cont.)

34. ODA to Rwanda by donors (2006-2009)

35. Department of International Development DFID operational plan 2011-2015

36. ODA Today • Accusations from a United Nations report in June that Kigali is funding the M23 rebels have led to the most significant international reaction to date against Rwanda. The United States has suspended $200,000 in military aid, while the UK, the Netherlands, and Germany have delayed $25 million, $6 million, and $26 million, respectively, in official development assistance. • The Rwanda government with its counterpart Uganda with whom they are accused have both rubbished the claims. • QUESTION • Without donor help, can Rwanda meet its vision 2020? • What is the best way to resolve the Congo conflict? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xliwdh1K-Us&feature=related

37. References • www.indexmundi.com/burundi/population_growth_rate. • http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD • http://www.rw.undp.org/rwanda/en/home.html • http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/DT.ODA.ODAT.CD • www.indexmundi.com/burundi/population_growth_rates • African Development Bank Group. Burundi Country Strategy Paper. 2008-2011 • IMF Report. Republic of Burundi. Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper. 2012 • African Development Bank Group. Rwanda country Strategy Paper, 2012-2016 • DFID Rwanda Operational Plan. 2011-2015. June 2012 • http://thinkafricapress.com/rwanda/donors-withhold-funding-aid-darling-drc-m23

38. Thank you all