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Outline. How do we define space weather? How do we observe it? What drives it (solar activity and solar phenomena)? Which are the impacts on: the atmosphere and technological sysytems? How can we forecast it? What service exist? Today’s space weather. The Sun. Diameter:

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Outline
Outline

  • How do we define space weather?

  • How do we observe it?

  • What drives it (solar activity and solar phenomena)?

  • Which are the impacts on:

    the atmosphere and technological sysytems?

  • How can we forecast it?

  • What service exist?

  • Today’s space weather.


The sun
The Sun

Diameter:

1 390 000 km

(109 x Earth)

Mass:

1.99x1030 kg

(330 000 x Earth)

Density:

Core 151x103 kg/m-3

Average 1.41x103 kg/m-3

The Sun consits of:

H (≈ 90%)

Helium (≈ 10%)

C,N,O ( ≈ 0.1%)

Temperature:

Core 15 million

Photosphere 5800 K

Chromosphere 4300-104K

Corona 1-30 million K

4 protons --> He + 2 positrons + 2 neutrinos + 2 fotons (26.2 MeV)



Chromosphere
Chromosphere sunspots appear

Prominence

Solar flare

The chromosphere in H-alpha


Trace
TRACE sunspots appear




Coronal mass ejections
Coronal mass ejections sunspots appear


Cmes cause the most severe space weather effects
CMEs cause the most severe space weather effects sunspots appear

  • Halo CMEs are most geoeffective

  • Mass: 5-50 billion tons

  • Frequency: 3.5/day (max), 0.2/day (min)

  • Speed: 200-2000 km/s



The solar wind
The solar wind sunspots appear

  • Predicted from comet studies in 1940 ties

  • Theoretically predicted by Parker 1959

  • Measusred in situ 1960



Solar wind
Solar wind sunspots appear

Typical values

V: 450km/s

N: 5particles/cm3

T: 105 K

B: 5nT

The solar wind consists

of protons,

electrons and

3-4% alpha particles


Computation of the coronal magnetic field
Computation of the coronal magnetic field sunspots appear

Daily observations of the solar photospheric magnetic field at WSO are used for computation of the coronal magnetic field according to the ”potential field

model”.


Computed br at r 2 5rs
Computed Br at R=2.5Rs sunspots appear



The solar wind1
The solar wind sunspots appear

Fast halo CME with

solar flares and

solar proton events

Fast continuous solar wind from

coronal holes

Heliospheric current sheet

The solar wind Bz, V, and n determine

the effect of the solar plasma.


Earth s response
Earth’s response sunspots appear

  • Geomagnetic disturbances

  • Aurora

  • Ionospheric disturbances

  • Climate and weather changes



Geomagnetic storms
Geomagnetic storms sunspots appear



Aurora oval
Aurora oval sunspots appear


Aurora during severe solar storms
Aurora during severe solar storms sunspots appear

Aurora was observed in Italy 6-7 April and on July 15-16, 2000!

The aurora observed in

Stockholm


Space weather effects on technological systems
Space weather effects sunspots appearon technological systems


Satellite anomalies
Satellite anomalies sunspots appear


Satellite anomalies of july 14 16 2000 event
Satellite anomalies of July 14-16, 2000 event sunspots appear

The proton event caused

problems for ACE,

SOHO, Ørsted,

Japanese X-ray satellite,

star trackers on board

commercial satellites.

Proton flux (pfu) > 10 MeV,

24000 pfu (July 15, 12.30 UT). Third largest!

Largest 43 000 pfu, (March 24, 1991). Second 40 000 pfu

(October 20, 1989).


Solar proton events are dangerous to man in space
Solar proton events are dangerous to man in space sunspots appear

Mars

Between Apollo 16 and 17 a proton

event occurred, which should have

been deadly to the astronautes within

10 hours (i.e. above 4000 mSv).


Radiation risks and aviation
Radiation risks and aviation sunspots appear

The radiation exposure is doubled every 2.2 km.

Solar flares can increase the radiation by 20-30 times.

Pilots get cancer more often than average.

The intensive solar flare of

April 2, 2001, which caused

major communication problems

also made Continental

Airlines to change

their route between

Hong Kong and New York.

New EU law:

Pregnant (aircrew) should

not be exposed to more

than 1 (1-6) millisievert/year


Power systems are effected at times of geomagnetic storms
Power systems are effected at times of geomagnetic storms sunspots appear

This severe electrojet caused the failure of Quebec’s power system March 13-14, 1989.

A transformer damaged

in Main USA.

One of the generators of OKG’s (Sydkraft’s) nuclear plants was heated due to the geomagnetically induced current in March 13-14 1989.


Workshops arranged by us
Workshops arranged by us sunspots appear

Workshops on ”Artificial Intelligence Applications in

Solar-Terrestrial Physics” were held in Lund 1993

and 1997.


Artificial neural networks
Artificial neural networks sunspots appear

The basic element of every ANN is an artificial neuron or

simply a neuron (which is an abstract model of a

biological neuron (nerve cell)).


Download lund dst model in java and matlab
Download Lund Dst model in Java and Matlab sunspots appear

The ARMA filter is obtained by adding auto-regressive terms to a MA filter.The partial recurrent network (Elman) becomes identical to a linear ARMA filter if it is assigned linear activations functions.


Our scientific approach
Our scientific approach sunspots appear



Test dst forecasts
Test Dst forecasts sunspots appear


Applications
Applications sunspots appear


Applications1
Applications sunspots appear


Applications2
Applications sunspots appear


Real time forecasts and warnings based on kbn
Real-time forecasts and warnings based on KBN sunspots appear

Solar input data

Solar observations with SOHO make warnings 1-3

days ahead possible.

Solar wind observations with ACE make accurate forecasts 1-3 hours ahead possible.







Our gic pilot project an application at implementation stage
Our GIC Pilot Project sunspots appearAn application at implementation stage


Today general forecast service is given by rwcs within ises
Today general forecast service is sunspots appeargiven by RWCs within ISES

ISES Director: D. Boteler

Deputy Director: H. Lundstedt

Secr. for World days: H. Coffey

Secr. Space Weather: J. Kunches

WWW for Satellites: J. King


Rwc sweden ises
RWC - Sweden sunspots appearISES


The october 14 november 6 events it all started with no sunspots
The October 14 -November 6 events: sunspots appearIt all started with no sunspots

  • No sunspots (R=24)

  • Aurora observed in

    Southern Sweden

    (Gothenburg, Lund)

  • Media got interested

  • SOHO/MDI far side

    images had told me

    Large ARs were to come



Then came the ar 486 october 28 event
Then came the AR 486, enteredOctober 28 event

  • Even more interviews

  • Warnings and reports were sent to

    power industry

  • Discussions with power operators


Power outage in malm
Power outage in Malmö entered

Power Outage in Southern Sweden, October 30, 2003

Rz spectral

density LF

20-128 days.

Stora AR

vanligare.


The power failure got enormous media attention in sweden
The power failure got enormous media attention in Sweden entered

Every TV, radio station

and newspaper

had something


And then x28 solar flare on november 4
And then ….X28 solar flare enteredon November 4!!


Active regions 484 486 488 one rotation later
Active Regions 484/486/488 enteredone rotation later



Where to learn more www lund irf se
Where to learn more? enteredwww.lund.irf.se


END entered

Part 2

Acknowledgements.

I am grateful to the following providers of images and animations;

ESA/NASA SOHO teams.


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