Risk Monitoring & Early Warning System in Tajikistan

1. Risk Monitoring & Early Warning System in Tajikistan International Coordination Meeting “Responding to the Compound Crisis in Central Asia” 20-21 July 2009, Almaty, Kazakhstan

2. Presentation outline • Background: initial steps and current gaps • Ongoing initiative: proposed approach and structure • Challenges and Next steps

3. Background Lessons from the 2007/08 “compound crisis” Crises with humanitarian impacts can be triggered by a complex interaction of development failures and climatic hazards Initial steps: increased REACT monitoring capacities Introduction of a simplified REACT EW System: 1. Precipitation/temperature; 2. Remittances; 3.Food prices and fuel price; 4. Electricity generation; 5. Water level in reservoirs.

4. … Changing environment After drought situation in 2008 and growing importance of emerging impacts of the global financial crisis on the economy of Tajikistan, additional/more complex indicators were included for monitoring: Labor migration; Consumer price inflation; Import/Export; Currency exchange rate; Unemployment rate; Agricultural outputs.

5. Current set-up of REACT EW System Managed out of UNDP (DRMP); Monthly publication of monitoring of indicators and situation reports since September 2008, available at: http://www.untj.org

6. Gaps of the current system No unified system with broader scope of indicators; Difficulty in obtaining timely and qualitative data; Informal cooperation with governmental counterparts; Lack of sector-specific analysts/limited analyses; No agreed path from monitoring to warning and action.

7. Goal: To enhance national capacities in emergency-related information management to prevent crises and/or mitigate their consequences at an early stage Proposed approach: Phase 1: Data Collection Process Phase 2: Analytical Process/Risk Monitoring Phase 3: Warning Ongoing initiative for a Risk Monitoring & Warning System in Tajikistan

8. Three-phased approach PHASE 1: Data collection process Data collection process • Sector-specific partner agencies (GoT and international) assist in data collection process on a regular basis; • Data is integrated within the “RMW System”; Analytical process • Sector-specific specialists analyze available data on a regular basis and issue Situation Reports (MONITORING); • In case triggers reach threshold levels, Early Warning reports are released (WARNING); Risk Monitoring and Warning - TheSituation Reports are disseminated to all REACT partners, donors and national stakeholders (Ministries and State agencies); • When triggered,Warning Messages are disseminated and will include specific recommendations to the Government, UN agencies and the international community; PHASE 2: Analytical process PHASE 3: Early Warning

9. Proposed structure of the EW System Sector Specific Threats Sector Specific Threats Sector Specific Threats Sector Specific Threats Data collection List of Indicators/warning triggers List of Indicators/warning triggers List of Indicators/warning triggers List of Indicators/warning triggers Source Source Source Source Source Source Source Source Source Source Source Source Main Sector Partners Main Sector Partners Main Sector Partner Main Sector Partners Analysis “Risk Monitoring and Warning System”/Group of Sector Specific Specialists Risk Monitoring Reports (monthly) Alerts /Early Warning Reports (when triggered) Warning UN Resident Coordinator donors & other int. agencies Governmental Counterparts; key decision-makers REACT partners/humanitarian sector Joint response/Early Action

10. Phase 1: Data Collection Process (1/2) Natural Hazards Socio-economic Security Food Security List of Indicators Flooding/mudflows Precipitation Snow storage Temperature Water level in the rivers List of Indicators • CPI • Currency exchange rate • Remittances • Migration • Unemployment rate List of Indicators • Market food price • Local fuel price • Local service price • Households food stock/food access • Household income and expenditures • Consumption basket • Agricultural output CoES Hydromet Barqi Tojik NBT, IMF State Statistical Committee IOM, ILO, MoL, MoEDT WFP, FSMS State Statistical Committee MoEDT MoA CoES IMAC IMF (& MoF) WFP (MoA & MoEDT)

11. Phase 1: Data Collection Process (2/2) Energy Security Health Security Water Security List of Indicators • Water level in the reservoirs • Electricity generation • Energy (electricity and gas) import • Energy restriction schedules (duration and location) List of Indicators • Disease outbreak • Nutrition • Health care delivery • Availability of heating facilities • Drug availability • Household’s health expenditure List of Indicators • Access to clean drinking water (Linked with “Natural Hazards” & “Health Security” indicators) Barqi Tojik Tojik-transgas MoEI MoH/ SES CoES WFP/ FSMS MoH/ SES CoES MoMWR Local Water Agencies World Bank (& MoEI) World Health Organization (& MoH) UNICEF

12. Phase 2: Analytical Process Early Warning Center (hosted within UN) Board of Experts (With 5 or more sector-specific specialists who convene regularly to analyze the collected data and write a report) • Situation Report (monthly) • Monitors identified risk factors; • Bulletin type; • Main text – “Narrative part” - interpretation of data and graphs (see current Situation Reports produced by REACT Secretariat); • Tables and graphs (current practice – to be redesigned); • Includes interpretation and analyses of original sources; • Includes cover letter from UN RC, with specific reference to “possible” warning. Early Warning Report (when triggered) • Concise and brief – can be a half page (“Press Release” type of report); • Includes report number; • Reference made to EWI Monitoring; • Includes specific recommendations to Government, UN, IFIs, other relevant actors.

13. Phase 3: Early Warning • From Government to population • AND • From UN Resident Coordinator to donors, other partners (depending on the message or situation) • Decision taken based on recommendations from experts in discussion with GoT and UN; • Includes recommendations to Government and international community Donors/Governmental Counterparts- key decision makers REACT partners/humanitarian sector

14. Challenges and Next steps • Overall agreement on the need for such a system; • Identify suitable Government partner institution; • Agree with all stakeholders on the structure of the system and on roles and responsibilities of involved parties; • Ensure sustainability of the system. • Agree on key sectors and indicators; • Identify the sources of data and information (clarify processes for access and regular provision of data); • Test and fine-tune the system; • Develop the links from early warning to early action.

15. Thank you