Environmental technical working group meeting ierm discussion october 16 2003
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Environmental Technical Working Group Meeting – IERM Discussion October 16, 2003. Overview. Review/Discussion for PI Conceptual Model Diagrams Outstanding Issues Organized by Subgroup Discussion of Habitat Modeling and Correspondence/Categorization. IERM Conceptual Model – Lake Ontario.

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Presentation Transcript

Overview
Overview Discussion

  • Review/Discussion for PI Conceptual Model Diagrams

  • Outstanding Issues Organized by Subgroup

  • Discussion of Habitat Modeling and Correspondence/Categorization



Wetland plant sub model lo usl
Wetland Plant Sub-Model (LO/USL) Discussion

Wetland Plant PI Measures

  • LO/USL Water Level Time Series

  • Maximum level in 2 consecutive quarter monthly periods

  • Average water level for growing season

  • % Species Composition @ Specific Elevations

  • Barrier Beach

  • Drowned River Mouth

  • Protected Embayment

  • Unprotected Embayment

Feed to Faunal Sub-Models

Sub-Model Inputs

  • “Average” Wetland Topography

  • Barrier Beach

  • Drowned River Mouth

  • Protected Embayment

  • Unprotected Embayment

Sub-Model Outputs

  • Total Estimated Area of Plant Species (ha)

  • Barrier Beach

  • Drowned River Mouth

  • Protected Embayment

  • Unprotected Embayment

Feed to Faunal Sub-Models

  • LO/USL Wetland Area

  • Barrier Beach

  • Drowned River Mouth

  • Protected Embayment

  • Unprotected Embayment

Wetland Plant Effects


Fish sub model lo usl lsl
Fish Sub-Model (LO/USL/LSL?) Discussion

Daily input

  • LO/USL Water Temperature Time Series

  • Daily values corrected based on depth/location

Fish PI Measures

Habitat Variables (20-m grid)

Guild-Based WSA for system (ha)

Water Depth

  • LO/USL Water Level Time Series

  • Interpolated daily values

Local Habitat Patch WSA (ha)

Daily input

Submergent Vegetation

Sub-Model Inputs

  • Population Models (life stages: #/ha)

  • Northern pike

  • Yellow perch

  • Smallmouth bass

  • Largemouth bass

Sub-Model Outputs

Wetland Sub-Model

Emergent Vegetation

  • Total Estimated Area of Plant Species (ha)

  • Barrier Beach

  • Drowned River Mouth

  • Protected Embayment

  • Unprotected Embayment

Substrate

Velocity

Fish Effects


Wetland bird sub model lo usl
Wetland Bird Sub-Model (LO/USL) Discussion

H&H Inputs

Wetland Bird Effects

Wetland Bird PI Measures

  • LO/USL Water Levels

  • Quarter monthly time series

  • Significance of Recruitment Impacts?

  • Various species

  • Nest Losses (%) (Flooding)

  • Various species

Sub-Model Inputs

Sub-Model Outputs

Wetland Sub-Model

  • Significant Trends in Population Potential (#)

  • Various species

  • Weighted Suitable Habitat (ha)

  • Various species

  • Total Estimated Area of Plant Species (ha)

  • Barrier Beach

  • Drowned River Mouth

  • Protected Embayment

  • Unprotected Embayment

Diversity of Bird Assemblages (Shannon-Weaver Index)


Species at risk sub model lo usl
Species-At-Risk Sub-Model (LO/USL) Discussion

H&H Inputs

Species-At-Risk PI Measures

  • LO/USL Water Levels

  • Quarter monthly time series

Species-At-Risk Effects

Sub-Model Outputs

  • Weighted Suitable Habitat (ha)

  • Various species

  • Positive/Negative Impact on Habitat

  • Various species

Sub-Model Inputs

Wetland Sub-Model

  • Total Estimated Area of Plant Species (ha)

  • Barrier Beach

  • Drowned River Mouth

  • Protected Embayment

  • Unprotected Embayment


Herptile sub model lo usl
Herptile Sub-Model (LO/USL) Discussion

H&H Inputs

Herptile PI Measures

Herptile Effects

  • LO/USL Water Levels

  • Quarter monthly time series

Turtle Survival (# or %)

Nest/Egg Survival (# or %)

Sub-Model Outputs

  • Weighted Suitable Habitat (ha)

  • Various species

Sub-Model Inputs

  • Positive/Negative Impact on Habitat Supply

  • Various species

Wetland Sub-Model

  • Total Estimated Area of Plant Species (ha)

  • Barrier Beach

  • Drowned River Mouth

  • Protected Embayment

  • Unprotected Embayment


Muskrat sub model lo usl
Muskrat Sub-Model (LO/USL) Discussion

H&H Inputs

Muskrat PI Measures

Muskrat Effects

  • LO/USL Water Levels

  • Fall variability (?)

  • Winter variability (?)

Sub-Model Inputs

Sub-Model Outputs

Muskrat House Flooding/ Stranding Potential (% loss?)

Significant loss of muskrats based on threshold?


Dabbling duck sub model lsl
Dabbling Duck Sub-Model (LSL) Discussion

Dabbling Duck PI Measures

H&H Inputs

Dabbling Duck Effects

  • LSL Water Levels

  • Quarter monthly time series

Brooding Success

Migration Success

Significant Effects?

Sub-Model Outputs

Sub-Model Inputs

Nest Survival (% survival)

Significant Effects On Population

Total Suitable Habitat Supply/Area (ha)

Wetland Sub-Model

Total Estimated Area of Plant Species/Classes (ha)


Summary of outstanding issues
Summary of Outstanding Issues Discussion

  • Wetland Plants

    • Connecting plant community results to faunal sub-models / ca

    • Understanding potential extent of wetland evolution in LSL (Morin)

  • Fish

    • Streamlining population modeling approaches for LO, USL, and LSL (Minns/Morin/Farrell)

    • Availability of 100-year temperature time series

    • Refining data/approach for lakewide suitable habitat GIS-based computations

    • Tying in fish migration study (DeLafontaine)


Summary of outstanding issues1
Summary of Outstanding Issues Discussion

  • Wetland Birds

    • Reducing list of key habitat/hydrological variables to be included

    • Connecting nest losses (due to flooding) to significant effects on productivity

  • Dabbling Ducks

    • Importance of long-term changes in habitat

    • Study only includes LSL

    • Rationale for exclusion of dabbling duck predictions for LO and USL?


Summary of outstanding issues2
Summary of Outstanding Issues Discussion

  • Species-At-Risk

    • Reducing list of species to be modeled (already done for lower river)

    • Use of “hot spots” vs. overall impact on habitat

  • Muskrats

    • Defining direct water level impacts on flooding/ freezing, etc.

    • Extending to lower river model

    • Cattail herbivory feedback?

  • Herptiles

    • Identifying specific habitat/hydrological variables to be included


General ierm svm logistical issues
General IERM/SVM Logistical Issues Discussion

  • Merging calculations for LO and USL with LSL 2-dimensional model (Morin)

  • Complexity and computer run-time for:

    • Lower river model

    • GIS-based habitat calculations for LO/USL

  • Refining significance of effects – “meaningful” output for SVM