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Towards a Climate Impact Monitoring Indicators, archetypes and success factors for action . Jürgen P. Kropp Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Reserach. Budapest, Sept. 4-5 th 2008. COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES Brussels, 29.6.2007 COM(2007) 354 final
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Jürgen P. KroppPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Reserach
Budapest, Sept. 4-5th2008
COM(2007) 354 final
GREEN PAPERFROM THE COMMISSION TO THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS
Climate change: building
adaptive capacity of local
and regional authorities
Kompetenzzentrum Klimafolgen und Anpassung
3. Regional/Local: ? – issue of ongoing researchHierarchy of Adaptation „Strategies & Concepts“
Challenge: Strengthening efficiency of institutions,
e.g. by adequate facilitation/capacities, but how....
> 8 Mio. to.
- safe environments -
Question: fight against
or living with CC?
Distinguish between adaptation and adaptive capacity!
1. Systems knowledge
2. Problem awareness
3. Adequate instruments
4. Success measures (time?, which metric)
Indicators measuring only a state are not sufficient!
Tree types, slope, rel. storm
Cyclone KyrillSectoral Vulnerability North-Rhine Westphalia/Germany (1999)
Source: Kropp et al. 2006, Climatic Change
Drowning New Orleans
by Mark Fischetti
Scientific American (October 1, 2001)
The boxes are stacked eight feet high and line the walls of the large, windowless room. Inside them are new body bags, 10,000 in all. If a big, slow-moving hurricane crossed the Gulf of Mexico on the right track, it would drive a sea surge that would drown New Orleans under twenty feet of water. "As the water recedes", says Walter Maestri, a local emergency management director, "we expect to find a lot of dead bodies".
New Orleans is a disaster waiting to happen. The city lies below sea level, in a bowl bordered by levees that fend off Lake Pontchartrain to the north and the Mississippi River to the south and west. And because of a damning confluence of factors, the city is sinking further, putting it at increasing flood risk after even minor storms. The low-lying Mississippi Delta, which buffers the city from the gulf, is also rapidly disappearing. A year from now another 25 to 30 square miles of delta marsh - an area the size of Manhattan - will have vanished. An acre disappears every 24 minutes. Each loss gives a storm surge a clearer path to wash over the delta and pour into the bowl, trapping one million people inside and another million in surrounding communities. Extensive evacuation would be impossible because the surging water would cut off the few escape routes. Scientists at Louisiana State University (LSU), who have modeled hundreds of possible storm tracks on advanced computers...................
1961-1990 1976-2005 2005 2050ff 383mm 350mm 245mm-100mm
Fresh water (~16 mm = 7%of prec.) 880 * 106 m3/J
groundwater (partly salinised) 450 * 106 m3/J
actual: 1330 * 106 m3/J
Demand (* 106 m3) 2005 2015
Population (potable water) ~2.4. Mio ~2.5 Mio.
96 100 (+3.8%)
golf courses: 1.9ha/hole; 9,000 m3/yr/ha 210ha: 1.9 400ha: 3.6 (+88%)
1 tourist ~ 6-800 l/d 0.5 (?) 2.6 (+420%)
irrigated land 6,500m3/ha/J 150 103: 975 180 103: 1170 (+20%)
Industry 80 117 (+46%)
in 2015 163bnl/yr below sust. level
Source: Tekken & Kropp 2008
Are we ready for adaptation?
Eisenack/Tekken/Kropp (2007): Coastline Report
Management of or Adaptation to risks need knowledge about mechanisms!….but how to analyse entangled dynamics of socio-ecological systems?….how to integrate policy on an acceptable level of abstraction?…how to assess efficiency of management options?
Data driven models
((M+ x y))
((U- y z) (0 max))
((MULT x y z))
global mapsQualitative and Quantitative Methods
cf. Kropp & Scheffran 2007
Millenium Development Goals
Long-term climate development & protection
Exposed units and their capacities
Event oriented view
Challenges & Views
Prepared for UN Sigma Xi 2006
Science & Stakeholder
Bottom up: Local Experience
Experiences„Semi-formalised elements“ of Adaptation Measures constructing archetypes
Actors & Type
Stream of costs & benefits
How adaptation occurs
Effect on policy
Area of intervention
Changes of socio-economics
Mid-term goal: shared problem solving competence (adaptation wizard)
Purpose & Form
Structural, legal, financial,...
Retreat, prevent, restore
costs (via Geo-Tags),
Source: PIK/Kropp & Costa (2008) Kropp & Daschkeit (2008)