Use of Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probabilities in Public and Marine Forecasts: An Update. Pablo Santos WFO Miami, FL David Sharp WFO Melbourne, FL Mark DeMaria NOAA/NESDIS. “HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.”. NOAA Hurricane Conference 2008. PS/DS. Contents of Presentation.
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WFO Miami, FL
WFO Melbourne, FL
“HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.”
NOAA Hurricane Conference 2008
Message Sensitivity and Marine Forecasts: An Update
(Fostering One Forecast Message)
Text Formatters: Logic HierarchyINTENT (Item 42-05): to establish a set of rules for triggering enhanced wording which responsibly conveys wind speed uncertainties within text forecasts
Note: Forecast Error implies appreciation for the inherent uncertainties regarding the track, intensity, and size of the tropical cyclone.
Baseline Phraseology and Marine Forecasts: An Update(Text Formatters)
2008 Season Examples and Marine Forecasts: An Update
Fay – WFOs and Marine Forecasts: An UpdateMFL and MLB
Ike – WFOs BRO/CRP/HGX/LCH and Marine Forecasts: An Update
Supplemental and ROC Diagram
Zones and ROC Diagram
Gustav – WFO LIX
Observed and ROC Diagram
c dContingency Table for Validation of Yes-No Forecasts
Threat Score (TS) = a/(a + b + c)
Hit Rate (HR) = a/(a + c)
False Alarm Rate (FR) = b/(b + d)
Optimal Probability Threshold = 19%
Optimal Probability Threshold Pt = 4%