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Tropical storms Classification Development Trajectories Forecasting Hazards Future prospects Tropical disturbances, etc. Saffir-Simpson scale Spawning areas for tropical storms (SST >27°C) Tropical storm genesis: convergence behind an easterly wave

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Presentation Transcript
tropical storms

Tropical storms

Classification

Development

Trajectories

Forecasting

Hazards

Future prospects

tropical storm genesis convergence behind an easterly wave
Tropical storm genesis:convergence behind an easterly wave

In a typical hurricane season some 60 easterly waves develop in the North Atlantic. Only about 1 wave in 5 becomes a tropical depression. Strong upper level troughs and westerly winds commonly suppress hurricane formation

mature hurricane
Mature hurricane

Development fostered by release of heat from condensed water in bands of clouds around the tropical storm centre more rapid convergence and updrafts. This +ve feedback leads to intensification and hurricane formation.

the atlantic hurricane season dr william gray @ colorado state u
The Atlantic hurricane season(Dr. William Gray @ Colorado State U.)

Strong Azores High inhibits hurricanes

Strong El Niño suppresses hurricanes

(but 1998?)

Wet springs inhibit hurricanes

Strong stratospheric easterlies suppress hurricanes

Low SST’s inhibits hurricanes

forecasting
Forecasting
  • NHC (Miami) uses nine tracking and intensity models to forecast hurricane movement.
  • Seven models based on global climate forecasts; two (NHC90/91 and CLIPER) based on statistical analyses of past hurricane trajectories.
  • Forecasts are for 12h, 24h, 36h, 48h and 72h ahead and are updated at 4h intervals.
  • Some models are used for ‘early’ stages; others for ‘late’ (i.e. close to landfall).
  • Average errors vary from ocean to ocean, depending on typical recurvature (Atlantic errors are large)
hurricane hazards
Hurricane hazards

Storm surge (5-6m common)

High winds (see Saffir-Simpson)

Intense rainfall

X

New Orleans (-2m elev.)

~72h to evacuate 1.6M residents. Old and poor (~100 000) who rely on public transport present a major problem. Solution: move them to high floors of skyscrapers?

Increasing population at risk (80% of residents of Florida =8M people live within 8 km of coast; 3M within storm surge zone)

el ni o events and tropical storm activity e g 1998 el ni o
El Niño events and tropical storm activity(e.g. 1998 El Niño)
  • PACIFIC OCEAN - 14 tropical storms in E. Pacific ; 9 developed into hurricanes.
  • ATLANTIC OCEAN - 14 tropical storms; 10 developed into hurricanes.H. George: most powerful storm in ~200 yrs; hit Puerto Rico, Virgin Is., Domincan Rep., Florida and US Gulf coast - 300 deaths, $5G in damage.H. Mitch: most destructive storm in ~200 yrs; hit Nicaragua - Guatemala - >13 000 dead or missing, $5G in damage.
global warming and tropical storm activity
Global warming and tropical storm activity

Emanual (MIT) forecasts:1. that the hurricane season will be extended by 2 months or more in the North Atlantic and Caribbean. 2. that hurricane intensity will increase by more than 50% - attaining maximum wind speeds of >300 km/h (cf. >200 km/h at present).

slide25

HURRICANE SEASON 2001

12 - 7 - 3

12 NAMED STORMS

7 HURRICANES

3 MAJOR STORMS

slide26

1995-2000 MOST ACTIVE 6 YEARS ON RECORD

79 NAMED STORMS

49 HURRICANES

24 MAJOR STORMS

slide30

PB4Y-2 PRIVATEER(Hurricane Hunter)

Lost, Hurricane JANET - 1955

slide36

TEMPERATURE

SST 26.5C OR MORE

TO A LEAST 46 METERS

DEEP

slide38

INFLOW-OUTFLOW

WARM/MOIST

CORIOLIS

SHEAR

slide39

WINDS

155 MPH = 100 lbs per SQUARE FOOT.

SURGE

CUBIC YARD SALT WATER = 3/4 TON.

slide52

AFTER CAMILLE

HURRICANE CAMILLE

slide56

ERIN

1995

slide60

FLOYD ANDREW

1999

1992