BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – December 2009 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – December 2009

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  1. BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – December 2009 An overview of movements in global financial markets Prepared by BT Wrap for the adviser market

  2. Global share markets closed higher in December... • Global share market performance was very positive in December as concerns surrounding Dubai’s debt obligations eased after the United Arab Emirates’ central bank said that it would bail them out. In the US, the benchmark S&P 500 Index closed the month up 1.8% and this had a positive knock-on effect elsewhere, with markets in Japan (+12.8%), the UK (+4.3%) and Europe (+6.0%) also closing higher. • The Australian share market ended the year very strongly, with the S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index building on last month’s gains to close December 3.7% higher. Contributing to the gains were a jump in commodity prices – which helped to push mining heavyweights like BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto higher – and a strong lead from the US market.

  3. …and continue to perform well over the long-term, despite some major market events Impact of major market events on global shares since 1987 Jul 01 Tech Wreck Jun 07 US Sub-prime Crisis Sep 01 Attack on Twin Towers Jul 98 Russian Bond Crisis Aug 97 Asian Currency Crisis Nov 89 Fall of the Berlin Wall Feb 94 Bond Market Crash Mar 03 Troops enter Iraq Jan 91 Gulf War Global shares measured by the MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$. Source: BT Financial Group, MSCI

  4. The Australian share market closed 3.7% higher in December S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index – year to 31 December 2009 Source: BT Financial Group, Premium Data

  5. Key Australian economic news – December • The Australian economy added 31,200 jobs in November which helped to push the unemployment rate down to 5.7%. • The Westpac/Melbourne Institute’s consumer sentiment survey eased a further 3.8% in December – its second consecutive monthly decline. • Retail sales rose 1.4% in November, beating the market’s expectation of 0.3%. • National Australia Bank’s business conditions survey fell slightly in November, reflecting declines in both profitability and employment measures. • Newspaper job advertisements jumped 8.3% in November, though they remain well down in year-end terms (-18.7%). • Australia’s current account deficit was A$16.2 billion in the September quarter – a touch lower than what the market had expected (A$16.8 billion). Source: BT Financial Group

  6. The Australian dollar closed the month lower against the US dollar • The Australian dollar (A$) fell against its US counterpart in December, losing 1.9% as expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank began to fade. It was the Australian dollar’s first monthly decline against the US dollar since January 2009. • At the end of December: A$1 bought US$0.8972 -1.9% €0.6266 +2.8% ¥83.35 +5.6% Source: BT Financial Group

  7. The Australian dollar versus the US dollar… Currency markets – A$ per US dollar Source: BT Financial Group. Figures at 31 December 2009

  8. the Euro… Currency markets – A$ per Euro Source: BT Financial Group. Figures at 31 December 2009

  9. and the Yen Currency markets – A$ per Yen Source: BT Financial Group. Figures at 31 December 2009

  10. Official world interest rate movements – December • Interest rates in the major economies remained largely unchanged in December. Australia was the only central bank to move, raising the official cash rate by 0.25% (to 3.75%) early in the month. Source: BT Financial Group

  11. Global share market returns 31 December 2009 Source: BT Financial Group

  12. Short-term asset class performance 1-year rolling returns to 31 December 2009 (%) Best performing asset class for the year Source: S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index, MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$, S&P/ASX 300 Property Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Bond Index hedged to $A , UBS Bank Bill 0+ years

  13. Short-term asset class performance (cont’d) 1-year returns to 31 December 2009 (%) 31 December 2008 31 December 2009 Australian bonds Listed property Australian shares Global bonds Global shares Source: S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index, MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$, S&P/ASX 300 Property Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Bond Index hedged to $A

  14. Long-term asset class performance 31 December 2009 Australian shares Listed property Australian bonds Global shares Cash Note: Accumulated returns based on $1,000 invested in December 1984 Source: S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index, MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$, S&P/ASX 300 Property Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, UBS Bank Bill 0+ years

  15. Oil prices were stronger in December due to a fall in US stockpiles and colder weather across North America Oil prices – US$ per barrel Source: BT Financial Group. West Texas Intermediate oil price at 31 December 2009

  16. This presentation has been prepared by BT Financial Group Limited (ABN 63 002 916 458) ‘BT’ and is for general information only.  Every effort has been made to ensure that it is accurate, however it is not intended to be a complete description of the matters described.  The presentation has been prepared without taking into account any personal objectives, financial situation or needs.  It does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any securities advice or securities recommendation.  Furthermore, it is not intended that it be relied on by recipients for the purpose of making investment decisions and is not a replacement of the requirement for individual research or professional tax advice.  BT does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information which is contained in this presentation.  Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded, BT and its directors, employees and consultants do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this presentation or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person.  Unless otherwise noted, BT is the source of all charts; and all performance figures are calculated using exit to exit prices and assume reinvestment of income, take into account all fees and charges but exclude the entry fee.  It is important to note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This document was accompanied by an oral presentation, and is not a complete record of the discussion held. No part of this presentation should be used elsewhere without prior consent from the author. For more information, please call BT Customer Relations on 132 135 8:00am to 6:30pm (Sydney time)