ITC-ILO-ETUC project on social dialogue in EU 12 and candidate countries Brussels 19 November 2010

1. ITC-ILO-ETUC project on social dialogue in EU 12 and candidate countriesBrussels 19 November 2010 Egbert Holthuis

2. Europe’s economy (2010 Spring Forecast) • EU’s GDP contracted by 4,2% in 2009, expected to grow by 1% in 2010 Employment contracted by -2% in 2009 and a further -1% in 2010 is expected, unemploymentreaches 10 % in 2010. • Consumer-price inflation: 1% inflation in 2009, 1.8% in 2010 • Budget deficit increases from 2.3 in 2008 to 7.2% in 2010 • Public debt rate from 60% in 2007 to 80% in 2010 • Double dip, Euro crisis ?

3. Unemployment rate: Big differences between EU Member States

4. …age, schooling and nationality are important(relative change in employment by subgroups 2008Q2-2010Q2)

5. Rapid increase in youth unemployment

6. Employment and social situation are linked COMPETENCES POVERTY JOBS • Key facts • 80 million people were at risk of poverty in the EU prior to the crisis; 19 million are children; unemployed are particularly exposed • 8% of people in work don’t earn enough to make it above the poverty threshold • Key facts • About 80 million people have low or basic skills, but lifelong learning benefits mostly the more educated • By 2020, 16 million more jobs will require high qualifications, while the demand for low skills will drop by 12 million jobs • Key facts • Despite progress, only 2/3 of our working age population is employed (66%), compared to over 70% in the US and Japan • Only 46% of our older workers (55-64) are employed compared to over 62% in the US and Japan EU flagship European platform against poverty EU flagships Agenda for new skills and jobs, Youth on the move

7. Need for integrated flexicurity policies • To respond to challenges / opportunities of globalisation and change • ⇒ European and international economic integration • ⇒ development of new technologies • ⇒ demographic aging of European societies • ⇒ segmented labour markets in many countries • To reinforce the European social model • ⇒ social protection, social cohesion and solidarity • To achieve the Europe 2020 objectives ⇒ 75% employment rate (20-64) and 20 mio less people in poverty

8. Flexicurity = flexibility + security • Flexicurity: an integrated strategy to enhance, at the same time, flexibility and security in the labour market. • ⇒ flexibility of labour markets, work organisation and labour relations • ⇒ security: employment security and social security • ⇒ ‘internal’ and ‘external flexicurity’ • Flexibility and security are not opposites –can be combined • ⇒ flexibility: successful transitions, upward mobility’, reconciliation • ⇒ security: skills development, adequate benefits, • training opportunities (esp. for low skilled and older workers) • ⇒both enterprises and workers can benefit

9. Demographic Balance 2008-2060(europop 2008,in millions)

10. Inequality in life expectancy by socio-economic status: “a new type of poverty” • Difference of 4 to 6 years for men and 2 to 4 for women between lowest and highest level of social status • In some EU countries even more than 10 years • Gap has been widening in Eastern Europe in past two decades, in particular for men • Main risks factors are an unhealthy life style (smoking, alcohol and obesity), inadequate access to health care and stress due to social hardship • Education may play a more important role than income • Women are sicker but men die quicker • New EC Communication on Health Inequalities in 2009

11. Look at gender dimension • Why do women who generally live longer retire earlier than men? • Will women copy the behaviour of men enjoy the same benefits and perils? • Why do women continue to date men that are a few years older and usually better educated? • Women are more involved in home care than men. Will this change once reconciliation between paid work and family care improves? • Are women who work more often in the public sector better protected against lay offs at a time of crisis? • Will women who work more often in the service sector have better future employment prospects? • Are we moving from a patriarchical to a matriarchical society?

12. What about (future) labour market shortages • Shortage of high skilled workers with a tertiary education is expected • But also shortage of lower skilled due to baby boom replacement demand • In particular horeca services, health and long term care sectors will have shortages often as a result of low pay (note women overrepresented) • Need active policies, make work pay (fiscal measures), better working arrangements and/or selective migration to meet bottlenecks • General public prefers to switch from part time to full time, to encourage more women to participate and to raise birth rates. Not popular: raising retirement age and/or extending the legal working week Questions: • Rise in employment rate of older workers based on upskilling and/or abolishment of early retirement and reform of disability schemes? • Perhaps fair to divide the future increase in life expectancy by 2:1 between work and retirement?

13. HoReCa Other services Transportation Post & tele Furniture Chemical Finance Printing Energy Automotive Computer Non-metallic Textile Trends in upskilling by sectors (source: EC, sectoral studies, 2009) Yearly employment growth (%) (2000-2006) • A Low upskilling • Job growth • Construction • Distribution & trade • HoReCa • Other services • B Medium upskilling • Job growth • Transport • Health & social work • Post & Telecom • C High upskilling • Low/no job growth • Chemical • Computer • Finance • Printing A 6 B 4 Health & social work C 2 Construction Distribution & trade Shipbuilding Electro-mechanical -2 Low upskilling High upskilling -4 -6 Defence

14. What is the EU doing to support employment objectives? Fully use potential of employment and social OMC for example to push skills agenda and anticipation of skills needs EU tools including Public Employment Services cooperation and the financial instruments (European Social Fund, Lifelong Learning Programme) Strengthen the capacity of social partners through social dialogue and bilateral agreements Introduce further labour law initiatives where justified Europe 2020 strategy

15. GUIDELINES to orientate Member States’ policies Way forward: The ‘Europe 2020’ strategy for jobs and for smart, inclusive and sustainable growth Inclusive growth FLAGSHIP INITIATIVES EU HEADLINE TARGETS AN AGENDA FOR NEW SKILLS AND JOBS 75% employment rate for the 20-64 YOUTH ON THE MOVE 10% early school leavers 40% of the 30-34 with tertiary education To be completed by national targets

16. 4 Employment Guidelines • Increasing labour market participation and reducing structural unemployment: increase LM participation disabled persons. • Developing a skilled workforce responding to labour market needs, promoting lifelong learning. • Improving the performance of education and training systems at all levels and increasing participation in tertiary education. • Promoting social inclusion and combating poverty: focus on disabled people.

17. Timing • Draft National Reform Programmes/NRP (12 November) • EMCO Country examination 23 and 24 November • EPSCO 6 and 7 December • European Semester January 2011, Spring Summit • Annual Growth Survey/Joint Employment Report Jan 2011 • Full NRP and SCP April 2011 • Policy guidance, recommendations June 2011

18. Thank you for your attention! New Skills for New Jobs http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=822&langId=en Employment and social affairs on the European Commission’s website: http://ec.europa.eu/social Europe 2020 strategy http://ec.europa.eu/eu2020