Provisional Estimates of FAF O-D Freight Flows by Highway

1. Provisional Estimates of FAF O-D Freight Flows by Highway Charlie Han MacroSys Research and Technology May 15, 2007

2. Objective Develop Provisional Estimates of FAF Origin-Destination Freight Flows by Highway • Measurements: Tons and Value ($) • Commodity Detail: 2-digit SCTG level • Types of Origins and Destinations • Domestic: FAF Regions • International: FAF Regions and Ports of Entry/Exit

3. An “updating” approach Growth in freight tonnage Provisional estimate of new freight tonnage Benchmark Year freight tonnage Freight flow from one region to another

4. What do we want? Answer: Freight flows by commodity and by FAF O-D regions FAF Region B Commodity flows A C

5. National total with commodity details Method for Domestic O-D Flows Estimation Steps: Step 1: The growth in total domestic highway freight tonnage National total without region and commodity details = Total domestic highway freight tonnage of benchmark year × Growth rate of highway freight calculated from ATA’s trucking tonnage index Step 2: Break total growth into growth by commodity Growth by commodity = Total growth × Shares of commodities in Total Output ($)

6. Method for Domestic O-D Flows Estimation Steps: Step 3: Distributing national growth by commodity to FAF regions For Example:X(B-C) = X × DF(X, B-C) ▲ National tonnage of commodity X (▲X) Distribution Factor (DF) B ▲ Regional flow of commodity X (▲X, B-C) A C

7. Method for Domestic O-D Flows Estimation Steps: Step 3-1: Calculating distribution factor for each pair of FAF O-D regions and each commodity Y(B-C) = (GDP(B) +GDP(C)) / (GDP(B, 0) +GDP(C, 0)) × X(B-C, 0) DF(X, B-C) = Y(B-C) / (Y(A-B),Y(A-C), ……, Y(B-C) ) And, (DF(X, A-B),DF(X, A-C), ……, DF(X, B-C) ) = 1 ▲GDP B Commodity X in Benchmark year (X, O-D) GDP B Growth in GDP $ B ▲GDP A ▲GDP C A GDP A GDP C C Economic Size in Benchmark year

8. Method for Domestic O-D Flows Estimation Steps: Step 4: Calculating provisional tonnage estimates Provisional Tonnage Estimate: X(B-C, t) = X( B-C, 0) + X(B-C) ▲ National tonnage of commodity X (▲X) ▲ Regional flow of commodity X (▲X, B-C) Distribution Factor (DF) B Regional flow of commodity X in benchmark year (X, B-C) A C

9. Method for International O-D Flows I(A) + I(B) + I(C) = I(P1) + I(P2) + I(P3) + I(P4) E(A) + E(B) + E(C) = E(P1) + E(P2) + E(P3) + E(P4) Imports Exports Imports Exports Imports Exports Imports Exports ? Port 2 Port 3 Port 1 ? E (AP1) ? Imports Exports Port 4 I (P1A) ? Imports Exports Imports Exports B A C

10. Method for International O-D Flows E(X, AP1, t) = E(X, A, t)× S(P1, X, A, 0) Where, S(P1, X, A, 0) = E(X, AP1, 0)/ E(X, A, 0) S(P1, X, A, 0) + S(P2, X, A, 0) + S(P3, X, A, 0) + ……+ S(Pn, X, A, 0) = 1 For Commodity not in FAF benchmark year (0): E(X, AP1, t) = E(X, A, t)× S(P1, A, 0) Where, S(P1, A, 0) = E(AP1, 0)/ E(A, 0) S(P1, A, 0) + S(P2, A, 0) + S(P3, A, 0) + ……+ S(Pn, A, 0) = 1 ? If [(E(X, AP1, t), E(X, BP1, t), E(X, CP1, t) ), for all X] = E(P1, t) If not: E(P1)=[(E(X, AP1, t), E(X, BP1, t), E(X, CP1, t)), for all X] - E(P1, t)

11. Method for International O-D Flows For Port i, where E(Pi) > 0, R(Pi) = E(Pi, t) / [(E(X, AP1, t),E(X, BP1, t),E(X, CP1, t)), for all X] E'(X, APi, t) = R(Pi) × E(X, APi, t) , WhereR(Pi) < 1 Then, [( E'(X, APi, t), E'(X, BPi, t), E'(X, CPi, t)), for all X] = E(Pi, t) Since E(A) + E(B) + E(C) = E(P1) + E(P2) + E(P3) + E(P4) (E(P1), E(P2), E(P3), E(P4) )= 0 For Port j, where E(Pj) < 0, U(Pj) = E(Pj) / (E(Pj), for all j) E'(X, APj, t) =E(X, APj, t) + U(Pj)×[(1-R(Pi))×E(X, APi, t), for all i)] Then, [( E'(X, APj, t), E'(X, BPj, t), E'(X, CPj, t)), for all X] = E(Pj, t)