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James Newell and Martin Perry Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates (MERA)

Case Studies in the Demographic Structure of New Zealand Occupations and Implications for the Work Force. James Newell and Martin Perry Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates (MERA). Population Association of New Zealand 2005 Conference 30th June 2005. Outline. Background to the Study

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James Newell and Martin Perry Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates (MERA)

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  1. Case Studies in the Demographic Structure of New Zealand Occupations and Implications for the Work Force James Newell and Martin Perry Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates (MERA) Population Association of New Zealand 2005 Conference 30th June 2005

  2. Outline • Background to the Study • Basic Concepts and Definitions • Overall Occupational Employment Trends • Examples of Case Study Approach • Discussion of value of these sorts of results and how they might be applied

  3. 1981 – 2001 Occupational Classns and Highest Educational Level Overview • Based on work for • Dept of Labour Future of Work Project on Occupational Workforce Dynamics 1991-2001 • Other related in house and contract work • Latest phase in systems development programme going back over a decade and more • All statistical series built anew from scratch by reprocessing of census unit record data • Ongoing spade work on metadata, classifications, concordances, validation of results

  4. Occupational Classification Framework for • Harmonised Occupational Classifications • 1991 – 2001 NZ Standard Classification of Occupation 1990, 1995 and 1999 (NZSCO90, NZSCO95, NZSCO99) • Developed highly coherent 1991 – 2001 “Occ199099” classifications at 3, 4 and 5 digit level • Since been working on extension of “harmonised classification to NZSCO68 and 1981 and 1986 data

  5. Standard simple dataset and approach • Harmonised Occupational classifications • Analysis at the 3-digit Occupational Group Level (95 categories) • Some statistical series prepared at 5 digit NZSCO level (513 categories) • 15 occupations selected for case study analysis • Generalised profiling and development of standardised derivative statistics • Age structures (five year age groups) by ethnic group, highest educational attainment level and sex 1991, 1996, 2001 • Birth cohort tracking / analysis - net intercensal gain or loss of employees by occupational age cohort • Various simple derivatives such as mean age, gender ratio etc.

  6. Case Study Occupations (3 digit level) • Occupational Case Studies A • Health Professionals • Health Professionals (Except Nursing) (12) • Nursing and Midwifery Professionals (13) • Health Associate Professionals (30) • Nursing Associate Professionals (31) • Life Science Related Professionals • Life Science Professionals (11) • Life Science Technicians and Related Workers (29)

  7. Case Study Occupations (3 digit level) • Occupational Case Studies B • Building Related Trades • Building Frame and Related Trades Workers (58) • Building Finishers and Related Trades Workers (59) • Electricians (60) • Building and Related Workers (91) • Labourers (96) • Occupational Case Studies C • Agricultural Workers • Market Farmers and Crop Growers (54) • Market Oriented Animal Producers (55) • Writers, Artists, Entertainment and Sports Associate Professionals (37) • Personal Care Workers (48)

  8. NZSEI Groupings

  9. Big Picture – Overall Change in Occupational Work Force Number Using Grouping of Occupations to NZ Socio-economic Status Index of Occupations

  10. Intercensal Growth in Jobs by NZSEI Groupings of Occupations 1981 - 2001

  11. Key Features of Occupational Change by NZSEI Gpings 1981 - 2001 • 1981 – 1986 : • Highest growth High SEI and slightly lower growth lowest SEI • 1986 – 1991 : • High growth in High SEI and big decrease in low SEI • 1991 – 1996 : • Across the board high growth in all SEI • 1996 – 2001 : • High growth in Medium - High SEI and drop in lowest SEI

  12. Description of Standard Types of Information in profilesSome similarities to the new skill shortage assessment reports prepared by the Department of Labour – but focussed on medium term (1991-2001) trends and census data only

  13. Occupational Case Study Profiles (all at NZSCO level 3) • Disaggregation of growth trends for Occupation down to 5 digit level for 1991 to 2001 • Distribution of occupation across industries (MERA Level 2) and “shift share” analysis of within and overall industry change • 1991 to 2001 trends by • Mean age, age composition, change in mean age by settlement type, ethnic composition trends, qualification level trends (by ethnic group), gender ratios and age composition by gender

  14. Disaggregation of Building Finishers and Related Trades by 5 digit occupation

  15. Occupation / Industry Shift Share Table

  16. Sample Age Composition, Gender ratios – “Writers, Artists, Entertainment and Sports Associate Professionals”

  17. Views of Occupation Workforce Demographics Net Intercensal Cohort Change -Dynamic View Census Snapshots -Static View Nursing and Midwifery Professionals

  18. Analysis of Recruitment History Example - Electricians

  19. Electricians – Age Structures 1981 – 2001

  20. Electricians – Net Employment Transitions by Age Cohort : 1991-96 and 1996–2001

  21. Comparison - Life Science Technicians – Net Employment Transitions by Age Cohort : 1991-96 and 1996–2001

  22. General Observations – Across all case studies

  23. Occupational Aging and Recruitment • Wide variation across occupational groups • Many of the issues of aging relate to reduction in youth recruitment from 1981-86 to 1986-2001 and net international migration flows in the 1990’s • Highest rates of aging in some trade and technical occupations Eg. Electricians and Life Science Technicians and Related Workers • youth recruitment in late 1980’s and 1990’s lower than earlier and this is affecting age structures • Net migration loss in 1990’s is likely to have contributed to aging

  24. Proportion of Workers aged 65 yrs or over • Those 65 yrs or older increased from 1.5 to 2.4% of working population from 1991 to 2001 • Large rate of participation of workers 65 yrs or over • Farming related occupations • Writers, artists, entertainment and sports associate professionals • Large rates of increase in participation of workers 65 yrs or over • Building frame and related workers • Labourers • Life science professionals

  25. Participation of Women • Increases are related to gender ratio and nature of occupation • Proportion of women in working population increased by 3.3% to 46.6% of workers between 1991 and 2001 • Women tending to increase participation in more skilled professional and service occupations with negligible gains in manual trade occupations • Participation of women In some skilled white collar occupations where female participation was low increased significantly • Eg. Life science professionals, health professionals (except nursing), life science technicians and related workers • Further increase in ratio of women will occur due to high levels of recruitment of women to younger age cohorts of these occupations • Small increase in male participation in some female dominated occupations

  26. Qualifications and Occupational Change • Real problems comparing 1991 and 1996/2001 data for non-degree post-secondary qualifications so focus on 1996 to 2001 period • Decreases in proportion with post-secondary qualifications in most of the case study professional, trade and technical occupations eg. • Electricians down from 83% (1996) to 72.5% (2001) • Life science professionals down 5.5% 1996-2001 • Health Professionals except nursing down 4.9% 1996-2001 but increase in degree ratio by 5% • Increases in proportion with post-secondary qualifications over 1996 to 2001 for • nursing and midwifery professionals of 18.3% • Health associated professionals of 7.7%

  27. Occupational Retention Rates and Qualification Levels • Those with higher qualifications are more likely to remain in the work force 60 years or over • Higher retention rates of those with a degree and in occupations with higher educational qualification levels eg. • Life science technicians • Writers, artists, entertainment and sports professionals • Personal care workers

  28. Is there a “qualification gap” between older and younger workers? • Limitations of data affect conclusions • higher differentials between younger and older workers in 2001 compared with earlier periods for some professional and technical occupational groups • Technical occupational groups show evidence of “leakage” as degree qualified workers aged between 1996 and 2001

  29. Maori vs Overall Occupational Change • In 2001, Maori participation in professional and “white collar” occupations lower than in working population as a whole • Maori participation in 2001 inversely proportional to the qualification level of the occupation • Maori participation increased more in those occupations with lower qualification levels • Building related occupations • Farming related occupations • Personal care workers • Exception where Maori participation grew only slightly slower than overall mean • life science professionals • Writers, artists, entertainment and sports associate professionals • Maori made some gains but tended to be concentrated in less skilled and non-professional occupations

  30. Aging in the ProvincesRanking on Aging Indicators - Number of Case Study Occupations by Settlement Group

  31. Conclusions • Census offers a rich resource for analysis of occupational work force issues • Cohort analysis of age breakdown of occupational work force powerful tool • by gender, ethnic group, migration status and qualification level etc. • offers useful insights to where we are now in terms of labour market shortages or surplus • Important element of evidence based policy

  32. Conclusions • Recruitment of young adults at start of careers into many occupations is critical to sustaining each work force • Low recruitment for any one period (for example when the economy is in recession or restructuring) has consequences that can span decades (eg. Electricians) – • means useful to extend analysis to pre 1991 data • The state has a major role in occupational labour markets (more in some than others) as • As employer (for some occupations the main employer) • In terms of facilitating trade, technical and professional training • Both government and industry can do better if have better information on long term occupational work force demographic trends • The Trade Occupation shortage assessment reports prepared by the Department of Labour are a step in the right direction • Not rocket science – a matter of making more effective and targeted use of underused existing statistical source

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