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2008 Annual Five Year Plan Update 2. 10/12/2007. Regional Planning: Jay Teixeira, Harry Liu, Brad Schwarz, Jeff Billo, Chris Ngai. Load Assumptions. Reliability Assessment – SSWG Forecast Economic Assessment – ERCOT Forecast. Generation Assumption. Existing generation

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2008 annual five year plan update 2

2008 Annual Five Year PlanUpdate 2

10/12/2007

Regional Planning: Jay Teixeira, Harry Liu, Brad Schwarz, Jeff Billo, Chris Ngai

load assumptions
Load Assumptions
  • Reliability Assessment – SSWG Forecast
  • Economic Assessment – ERCOT Forecast
generation assumption
Generation Assumption
  • Existing generation
  • Mothballed units in-service if reserve margin falls below 12.5%
  • Removed DFW-area non-SCR units
  • All future generation that have signed IA
  • $7/MMBTU average natural gas price for all years
wind generation
Wind Generation
  • All generators that are in the SSWG 2007 DSB cases updated 08/30/2007 plus:
    • Hackberry Wind, 165 MW, Shackelford County
    • Wildhorse Mountain Wind, 120 MW, Howard County
    • Gulf Wind, 188 MW, Kenedy County
    • Penascal Wind, 201 MW, Kenedy County
  • Total wind plant capacity are 6514, 6903 MW in 2008 and 2009 respectively
slide6

5-year Study Process

Existing 2012 SSWG Base case

TPIT and RPG Analysis – TO and ERCOT

Remove Non-RPG approved projects

Conditioned Case

Reliability Analysis – TO and ERCOT

Adding Reliability Projects

Repeat

Process

for previous year

Update the topology and Switch to ERCOT forecast

Base case for economic study

UPLAN Economic Analysis – TO and ERCOT

Adding Economic Projects

Final topology for the year

definitions
Definitions
  • Reliability Projects – Transmission projects that are needed to meet NERC or ERCOT reliability criteria that could not otherwise be met by any dispatch of the existing generation in planning studies
  • Economic Projects – Transmission projects that are needed to allow NERC and ERCOT reliability criteria to be met at a lower total cost than the continued dispatch of higher cost generation

This distinction is made only to describe what kind of analysis is performed for the project and does not indicate whether the project is required or optional.

how does ercot evaluating reliability projects
How does ERCOT Evaluating Reliability Projects

Three Buses Example:

  • Bus 1
    • Generator 1
      • Capacity: 1800 MW
      • Cost of generation: $30/MWh
  • Bus 2
    • Load: 1200 MW
  • Bus 3
    • Load: 300 MW
  • Three transmission lines with identical rating of 1000 MW and same characteristics (Impedances).

Figure one shows the network and assumptions

3 bus network example
3 Bus Network Example

300 MW Load

Figure 1

G1: 1800 MW

Cost: $30/MWh

1000 MW

Bus 3

Bus 1

1000 MW

1000 MW

Bus 2

1200 MW Load

traditional planning economic dispatch
Traditional Planning: Economic Dispatch

Figure 2

300 MW Load

G1: 1800 MW

Cost: $30/MWh

Dispatch 1500 MW

1000 MW

Bus 3

Bus 1

1000 MW

1000 MW

  • Pre Contingency
  • G1 is dispatched at 1500 MW to serve load at Bus 2 and Bus 3
  • No overload

Bus 2

1200 MW Load

traditional reliability project post contingency overloading
Traditional Reliability Project: Post Contingency Overloading

Figure 3

G1: 1800 MW

Cost: $30/MWh

Dispatch 1500 MW

300 MW Load

1000 MW

Bus 3

Bus 1

1000 MW

1000 MW

Post Contingency:

When contingency of line from bus1 to bus3 happens, line from bus 1 to 2 overloads 150%

Bus 2

1200 MW Load

current planning unserved energy
Current Planning: Unserved Energy

UNS: 300 MW

G1: 1800 MW

Cost: $30/MWh

Dispatch 1000 MW

300 MW Load

1000 MW

Bus 3

Bus 1

1000 MW

1000 MW

  • Security constraint dispatch: G1 at 1000 MW
  • No Post Contingency Overload.
  • Unserved Energy 200 MW at bus 2, 300 MW at bus 3
  • Line1-2 showing as a limiting element

Bus 2

UNS: 200 MW

Figure 4

1200 MW Load

uplan unserved energy report
Uplan Unserved Energy Report

UNS Bus name

UNS MW

Limiting Elements

PTDF/OTDF

CNT 1

Bus 2

200

Line 1-2

-1.00

Line 1-3

Bus 3

300

Line 1-2

-1.00

Line 1-3

slide19

Before Rothwood Station

Overload Element

Contingency

Unserved energy

slide22

Before Forney Auto

Overload Element

Contingency

Unserved energy

slide24

Forney Vs. Seagoville

Second Auto

No Overload

Contingency

slide26

Before Roanoke1 Auto

Unserved energy

Overload Element

Contingency

slide28

Before McNeil to Summit

Overload Element

Unserved energy

Contingency

slide30

Before Fairdale to Brand Upgrade

Overload Element

Unserved energy

Contingency

slide33

Before McCree-Shiloh Upgrade

Contingency

Overload Element

Unserved energy

slide34

After McCree-Shiloh Upgrade

Contingency

No Overload

slide36

Before Cross Timbers to Roanoke Upgrade

Contingency

Overload Element

Unserved energy

2012 economic project
2012 Economic Project
  • Performed preliminary economic project analysis
  • Creating list and send to TOs for review:
    • Technical feasibility of the proposed projects
    • Cost estimates of the projects
    • Alternative proposals and cost
economic projects
Economic Projects
  • Use the list of projects in 2012 as a manual to do other year economic analysis
    • If there is congestion, see if the project from the 2012 list can economically solve the issue
    • If there is congestion that can not be solved by any of the projects in 2012 economic project list:
      • Determine if there is a project that can generate enough revenue in the first few years to cover the capital cost
      • Any other temporary solutions