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ERCOT 2011 Five-Year Transmission Plan Update

ERCOT 2011 Five-Year Transmission Plan Update. 2011 Five-Year Transmission Plan. 2011 5YTP Scope and Process. SSWG 11DSB Cases : April TPIT Update. Match SSWG Cases to TPIT updates. Conditioned cases. Start Cases (Powerworld). SSWG Contingencies. Generation Cost Data. Posted on

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ERCOT 2011 Five-Year Transmission Plan Update

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  1. ERCOT 2011 Five-Year Transmission Plan Update RPG Meeting

  2. 2011 Five-Year Transmission Plan 2011 5YTP Scope and Process SSWG 11DSB Cases : April TPIT Update Match SSWG Cases to TPIT updates Conditioned cases Start Cases (Powerworld) SSWG Contingencies Generation Cost Data Posted on website Reliability Analysis (on-going) RPG Meeting

  3. 2011 5YTP Status • Start Cases • POI site for 5YTP: http://planning.ercot.com/planning/near/fiveyr/ • Conditioned cases posted on POI site in August • (starting point for reliability analysis) • Changes to conditioned cases to become start cases • Wind units Pmax set to 10% of original value • Added generation with signed IA that do not already appear in SSWG cases • Input cost information for each generator • Contingencies loaded into cases • Flat loads are set and other loads are scaled accordingly by weather zone • (see next slide for detail) RPG Meeting

  4. 2011 5YTP Status • Load Information • Evaluated load by weather zone • In some cases ERCOT econometric forecast was higher than SSWG forecast • For reliability analysis 5YTP cases will use higher of SSWG or ERCOT forecast (highlighted in tables below) RPG Meeting

  5. 2011 5YTP Status • Summary of Start Cases • Reserve margins are tight due to conservative demand assumptions • Analysis split into 2 regions for 2016 (based on weather zones) with base case created for each region • North/ North Central/ West/ Far West • South/ South Central/ East/ Coast • Mothball Generation activated in 2014 and 2016 cases • High cost of generation means little participation • Mothball units de-activated in each individual zone during reliability analysis of that zone • Table below summarizes the cases with these changes to load and generation RPG Meeting

  6. 2011 5YTP Reliability Analysis • Reliability Analysis & Initial Observations • SCOPF & CA completed for start cases (2012, 2014 & 2016) • Initial set of reliability projects identified based on the 2010 5YTP reliability projects • Next Steps • Perform SCOPF and CA with the initial set of projects (studies on-going)and post cases/results for comment • Meet with Transmission Owners to discuss results (in the next two weeks) • Perform G-1 + N-1analysis • Perform project back-out to validate results • Determine final set of projects and complete Reliability analysis (target Nov.1) RPG Meeting

  7. Questions? RPG Meeting

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