1 / 8

Preliminary Results of NARCCAP: North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program

This report presents some preliminary results from the NARCCAP Phase I study, which aims to explore uncertainties in downscaled future climates for impact analysis. The results show reasonably predicted precipitation in the northern Great Plains and potentially excessive maritime influence in the Pacific Northwest.

lbritton
Download Presentation

Preliminary Results of NARCCAP: North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP): Phase I Preliminary Results R.W. Arritt for the NARCCAP Team December 2006

  2. Some preliminary results • RCMs currently are completing the reanalysis-driven runs. • Results are shown here for 1979-1985 from three RCMs. • Configuration: • common North America domain (some differences due to horizontal coordinates) • horizontal grid spacing 50 km • boundary data from NCEP/DOE Reanalysis 2 • boundaries, SST and sea ice updated every 6 hours

  3. Analysis Regions Northern Plains: flat terrain, early summer precip maximum Pacific Northwest: mountainous terrain, winter precip maximum

  4. Precipitation, 1979-1985

  5. Mean annual cycle of precipitation

  6. January 1981 monthly mean 500 mb height January 1980 – ENSO neutral reanalysis

  7. July 1982 monthly mean 500 mb height reanalysis reanalysis

  8. Summary • NARCCAP goals are: • to explore propagation of uncertainties as AOGCM results are downscaled using regional models, and • to provide multiple realizations of future climates for impacts analysis. • Preliminary results from a limited set of initial RCM output suggest: • precipitation in northern Great Plains is reasonably predicted in the RCMs • maritime influence in Pacific Northwest may extend too far inland (but need to look at other precip obs)

More Related