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Transboundary Pollution Issues are of Growing Importance. S-Deposition. RAINS-Asia –Carmichael et al., (2001). How Robust Are The Source-Receptor Relationships?. Need to assess inter-model variability. The MICS-ASIA Study: Model InterComparison

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Transboundary pollution issues are of growing importance
Transboundary Pollution Issues are of Growing Importance

S-Deposition

RAINS-Asia –Carmichael et al., (2001)


Transboundary pollution issues are of growing importance

How Robust Are The Source-Receptor Relationships?

  • Need to assess inter-model variability.

  • The MICS-ASIA Study: Model InterComparison

  • of Long-Range Transport and Sulfur Deposition in

  • EastAsia

Many different models with important similarities and differences:Lagrangian, Eulerian, Hybrid, etc.


Transboundary pollution issues are of growing importance

Participant(s)

Organization

Model name

Model type

Main model focus

S.-B. Kim,

T.-Y. Lee,

K-Y. Ma

Dept of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul (Korea)

YU-SADM

(Yonsei Univ.-Sulfur Acid Dep. Model)

3D Eulerian

Long-term period or episodic estimation of sulfur sources contributions

H. Hayami,

Y. Ichikawa

CRIEPI (Japan)

CRIEPI trajectory model

Lagrangian

1-layer

Long-term evaluation

H. Hayami,

O. Hertel,

Y. Ichikawa

CRIEPI (Japan) and National Env. Research Institute (Denmark)

ACDEP ASIA

Lagrangian

1-layer

Long-term evaluation

I. Uno,

E.S. Jang

Research Institute for Applied Mech., Kyushu Univ, Fukuoka (Japan)

RIAM version of RAMS on-line tracer model

3D Eulerian

Episodic and long-term simulation for chemical climate studies

Y. Ikeda,

R. Yasuda,

H. Nakaminami

Osaka Prefecture University (Japan)

OPU-Model

(Osaka Prefecture Univ.)

3D Eulerian

Long-term deposition

S.Y. Cho,

G. Carmichael

CGRER, University of Iowa

STEM

3D Eulerian

Episodic and long-term studies

G. Calori,

G. Carmichael

CGRER, University of Iowa

ATMOS-2

Lagrangian

multi-layer

Long-term conc. and depositions of sulfur in Asia. Source-receptor relationships.

M. Engardt

Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute

MATCH

3D Eulerian

Long-term concentrations and depositions of ozone and acidifying substances



Transboundary pollution issues are of growing importance

Monitoring station location and emission distribution at period.

Kanghwa (left) and Tsushima (right)

Spatial resolution is 1 deg on upper and 30 sec on bottom


Transboundary pollution issues are of growing importance

Bias (abs [obs.-calc.]/calc.*100) of model calculated quantities for

the month of January. (Task A)


Transboundary pollution issues are of growing importance

Correlation between observed and predicted data quantities for

by monitoring site. (Task A)


Transboundary pollution issues are of growing importance

Example of 10 day- averaged surface SO quantities for 2 concentrations

(January 1-10) calculated by the participating models.(Task A)


Transboundary pollution issues are of growing importance

Wet to total sulfur ratio in depositions for both months (January and May together) over the target regions.(Task A)


Transboundary pollution issues are of growing importance

Total sulfur depositions for both months (January and May (January and May together) over the target regions.(Task A)

together) and contributions due to each process over selected

target regions. (Left: S. Korea; Right Central China)

Upper panels: results from Task B. Lower panels: Task A vs. Task B.


Transboundary pollution issues are of growing importance

Uncertainty in the Source-Receptor Relationships (January and May together) over the target regions.(Task A)

Inter-model Variability


Transboundary pollution issues are of growing importance

5 day iso-sigma back-trajectories arriving in Taichung (January and May together) over the target regions.(Task A)

Shown are the frequency distribution of all 3-hour end points

over the entire month of trajectories originated at the receptor.


Transboundary pollution issues are of growing importance

Uncertainty in the Source-Receptor Relationships (January and May together) over the target regions.(Task A)

Interannual Variability (10-yrs)


Transboundary pollution issues are of growing importance

Effect of Interannual Meteorological Variability (January and May together) over the target regions.(Task A)

on Sulfur Deposition can be Much Larger than

Changes in Emissions!

Is there climate feedback link?


Regional air pollution issues

Long-range transport: Northern China (January and May together) over the target regions.(Task A) Korea  Japan  North America (?!)

Regional visibility impairment, reduced insolation--compounded by dust from western deserts, climate implications

Acid rain, sulfur deposition, nitrogen deposition (NH3 involvement from fertilizer use), eutrophicaion of surface waters

Regional ozone formation, caused by organics + NOx with the involvement of CO and CH4

Trace elements from coal combustion, particularly Hg

Regional Air Pollution Issues


Transboundary pollution issues are of growing importance

Nitrate Deposition is of Growing Importance (January and May together) over the target regions.(Task A)

Tracey’s Work


Transboundary pollution issues are of growing importance

Nitrate Deposition is of Growing Importance (January and May together) over the target regions.(Task A)

% of Total Deposition as Nitrate

Tracey’s Work



Transboundary pollution issues are of growing importance

NASA-Seawifs Acid Deposition

The CFORS forecast (upper left) of the two dust systems are shown above. The dust plume (pink) represents the region with dust concentrations greater than 200 mgrams/m3. White indicates clouds. The SeaWifs satellite image (upper right) also clearly shows the accumulation of dust spiraling into the Low Pressure center. Also note the strong outflow of dust in the warm sector “ahead” of the front over the Japan Sea. The two systems are clearly seen in the satellite derived TOMS-AI (aerosol index) (lower right). The dust event is clearly seen in the China SEPA air pollution monitoring network. Lower left hand panel shows extremely large ground level concentrations (http://www.ess.uci.edu/~oliver/tracep/airqual/index.html). The sandstorm and sand-drifting weather, which swept across most parts of China caused severe visibility and air quality problems

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/20010409/395181.htm


Transboundary pollution issues are of growing importance

ACE-Asia (NSF) & TRACE-P (NASA) Acid Deposition

Spring 2001 Experiments

NASA/GTE DC-8


Transboundary pollution issues are of growing importance

The Long Range Transport of Dust is a Well Recognized Phenomena in East Asia---

Pollution is Transported the Same Way!!

Dust (Pink) and Sulfate

Dust and CO


Transboundary pollution issues are of growing importance

AOD (dust=color, BC+OC=line) Phenomena in East Asia---

April 08, 2001

AOD SO4


Transboundary pollution issues are of growing importance

A comparison between the CFORS predictions and that observed by satellite (TOMS-AI)

http://www.cgrer.uiowa.edu/ACESS/Perfect_Storm_Pres.html


Transboundary pollution issues are of growing importance

The Changing Air Quality of the Northern Hemisphere by satellite

Pacific Basin

Pressures are from the Pacific Rim

Countries and beyond.

Changing patterns and growth rates

of energy use and resulting

emissions are the primary forcing

factors

--

with East and West

following different paths.

Impacts are local, regional (East

and West), basin

-

wide, and global.

Complexities in transport and

chemistry over the Pacific greatly

challenge present modeling and

measurement efforts.


Transboundary pollution issues are of growing importance

UNEXPECTED DECREASES IN CHINA’S SULFUR EMISSIONS by satellite

BAU – ca 1990’s

Actual

New Two-Zone Control Policy

SEPA



Transboundary pollution issues are of growing importance

China Emissions recognized in 20001 (Tg)

Din China’s emissions (2000 – 1995)

(Tg)

Total global fossil fuel emission ca~1995

(Tg)

Change in China’s emissions as % of global total anthropogenic fuel combustion

(%)

Temp. Response function

DT/DEmissions

(K/Tg) 2,4

Estimated

Change in global temperaturesdue to changes in China’s emissions between 1995 and 2000

(K) 3,4

SO2

20.8

-4.95

134

-3.7%

-8.2 10-3

+0.04

BC

0.91

-0.43

5.1

-8.4%

6.5 10-2

-0.026

CO2

3,218

-109

29,700

-0.037%

3.0 10-5

-0.003

CH4

33.4

+1.16

360

+0.32%

7.5 10-4

+0.001

Net change:

S = +0.012

Air Pollution and Climate Issues are Intimately Linked


Transboundary pollution issues are of growing importance

Change in Sulfur Deposition recognized

between 1975 and 2000.


The role of chemical weather forecasting is of growing importance

Sounding recognized

height

Flight path

obs. point

The Role of Chemical Weather Forecasting is of Growing Importance

  • Field Campaign Planning

  • Field Observation Design

  • Traffic (Aviation) Management

  • Visibility

  • Environmental Management

  • Health Alerts

Simulated Kosa Onset April 98

Annual averaged

Surface level SO42-


Considerations for future mics studies
Considerations for Future MICS Studies recognized

  • Many regional modeling efforts in East Asia (Models 3 Community Modeling, Hong Kong EPA, ChinaMap, etc.) How to include them? And Chinese models?

  • Nitrate & longer-term have been identified as important next steps

  • I also see the importance of such studies for dust, PM2.5/10, AOD, and even extending to ozone.


Transboundary pollution issues are of growing importance

Thank You !!! recognized


Transboundary pollution issues are of growing importance

Annual Sulfur Deposition recognized

South Korea