Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling Review of the Gothenburg Protocol UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE
What has changed? • New Eulerian dispersion model • Ecosystem dependent deposition rates • Sensitivity of ecosystems, ozone flux approach • Health effects of particles and ozone • Emission estimates • New (national) projections, time horizon 2020 • Effects of existing control options (cycle bypassing) • Increased potential of cost-effective measures due to linkages with climate policy, non-technical local measures and measures for ships
Preliminary conclusion TFIAM32 Emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3 and VOC declined Current policy efforts are no-regret, but… The Gothenburg Protocol is not sufficient to meet the original ambitions regarding the long term protection of ecosystems and health
2000 2010 GP Europe EU25 Europe EU25 Lagrangian Model 1998 critical loads 26 61 25 54 2004 critical loads 25 56 23 49 Unified Model & 2004 CLs grid average deposition 29 65 29 59 ecosystem specific dep. Updated emissions & meteo variability 35 50 78 75 35 48 73 65 % Unprotected Ecosystem-area (nitrogen) - % Meteorologisk Instituttmet.no
Factors changing ecosystem risk estimates Goth Protocol Updated CL 50 * 50 km Exceedance of CLnut in 2010 Eulerian model Ecosyst. spec. dep. Meteorologisk Instituttmet.no
Trends in unprotected ecosystem area (%) Meteorologisk Instituttmet.no
GP knowledge:days with ozone above 60 ppb Problem for Northwestern & central Europe 2010 1990 1990
Current knowledge: SOMO35 [ppb.days] problem in Southern Europe 2000 2010 2020 Sum Of Mean Ozone values over 35 ppb in rural areas
Effect of hemispheric ozone increases the challenge No increase Expected increase Meteorologisk Instituttmet.no
Increasing importance of ship emissions Contribution of SOx from shipping to deposition of S Meteorologisk Instituttmet.no
Emission factors cars higher than expected ARE THERE MORE SCIENTIFIC CHANGES IN PIPELINE?
175% 150% 125% 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 GDP Primary energy use CO2 SO2 NOx VOC NH3 PM2.5 With CLE emissions significantly decrease, with the exception of NH3 and CO2[EU25, Primes projection]
Remaining problem areas in 2020Eutrophication remains wide scale problem Health+vegetation - ozone Vegetation – N dep Forests – acid dep Semi-natural – acid dep Freshwater – acid dep Health - PM
2004 - Distance to Target NOx Preliminary data ! Meteorologisk Institutt met.no
To do list • Improve & update national emissions projections • Non EU-countries • What control measures are envisaged and when? (TFEIP) • Write TFIAM background document to the official review report Same structure, including figures & 4 additional items: • Add para. on policy development in EU to TFIAM-document • Describe the quality of models used based on reviews • Explore new knowledge on damage to materials • Discuss costs and benefits of Gothenburg Protocol ?
Preparations for revision of the Protocol • Modelling particulate matter • Local air pollution modelling (TFMM) • Update MFR, including emerging technologies & non-technical measures • Inclusion of GHG abatement measures GAINS • Options for target setting & robustness of strategies