2012 Elections: What Will be the Impact to Higher Education?

1. 2012 Elections: What Will be the Impact to Higher Education? Daniel J. Palazzolo Professor of Political Science

2. The 2012 Elections • State of the Presidential and Congressional Races • Forecasting the Presidential Election • Higher Education in the Presidential Campaign • Higher Education Policy: Budget Politics and Reauthorization

3. RealClearPolitics Tracking Poll(Oct 7-14, 2012)

4. Electoral College: 10/14(Source: realclearpolitics.com)

5. Toss Ups (146) Colorado (9) Florida (29) Iowa (6) Michigan (16) Nevada (6) New Hampshire (4) North Carolina (15) Ohio (18) Pennsylvania (20) Virginia (13) Wisconsin (10)

6. 2012 Congressional Elections Current House: GOP 242 / Democrats 193 2012 Elections: Projections Democrats Toss Ups Republican 18326 (8D/16R)226 Current Senate: Democrats 53 / Republican 47 2012 Elections: Projections Democrats Toss Ups*Republicans 46 11 (7D/4R) 43 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *AZ : (Open-R), CT (Open -D) IN: (Open-R), MA (Brown-R), MO: (McCaskill-D); MT (Tester-D), NV (R-Heller), ND (Open- D), Ohio (Brown-D) VA (Open-D), WI (Open-D) Source: Real Clear Politics

7. Forecasting the 2012 Presidential Election • Incumbency • Partisan Polarization • State of the Economy • Presidential Approval

12. Campaign Strategy and Effects • *Obama Campaign Strategy: David Axelrod Meets Karl Rove • *Romney Campaign Strategy: Referendum AND Choice VP Selection and Party Conventions Economics in the Battleground Candidate Quality + Obama Romney’s Gaffe Debate Effect

13. *Vice Presidential Selection

14. Convention Bounce

15. Party Enthusiasm After Convention

17. Romney and the 47% Voters Familiar with Romney Comments FLA 89% CO 90%  Registered voters Reaction Unfavorable 54% Favorable 33% *WP/ABC News poll --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Positive Reaction 23% Negative Reaction 55% Amount of News Coverage Too Much 49% Right Amount 28% Too little 13% (10% DK) *Pew Center 10/1/2012

19. Romney Favorable: Pre- Post-Debate(Politico/GWU)

20. Obama Favorable: Pre- Post-Debate(Politico/GWU)

21. What’s Else? *Economic Picture is Mixed *Polls: -Who is a “likely voter”? -Race tightening before Denver debate -Undecided voters break to challenger *Obama Approval Rating below 50% *GOTV in battleground states: Organization v. Enthusiasm *Debates *Volatile international scene: Middle East to Europe *October Surprise?

22. Contributions from Education(opensecrets.com)

23. Top Four Contributors(opensecrets.org) Obama Romney

24. Vote for Obama among key groups: 2008 Exit Poll v. Pew Poll (Oct 4-7)

25. Obama Record on Higher Ed • Doubled funding for Pell Grants • Increased maximum tuition tax credit to $2,500 • Prevented student loan interest rates from doubling (along with Congress) • Direct lending • Capped federal student loan repayments at 10% of income and loan forgiveness (20 years)

26. Two Views of Higher Education Obama Convention Speech Romney Convention Speech “Every family in America wanted this to be a time when they could get ahead a little more, put aside a little more for college….” “Every new college graduate thought they'd have a good job by now, a place of their own, and that they could start paying back some of their loans and build for the future.” • “Millions of students are paying less for college today because we finally took on a system that wasted billions of taxpayer dollars on banks and lenders.” • “No family should have to set aside a college acceptance letter because they don’t have the money.” • “Help us work with colleges and universities to cut in half the growth of tuition costs over the next ten years.”

27. Policy Differences Obama Romney Freeze Pell Grants at $5,500 for decade Reduce # of grant recipients Let Tuition Tax Credit Expire Private Lenders and Banks issue subsidized loans • Defend Pell Grants • Extend Education Tax Credit • Link aid to curbing tuition costs • Crack down on for-profit colleges

28. Agreement • Both favor alternatives to the traditional four year degree for some students • Students and families should have “comprehensive, transparent about costs and value of colleges” • Both concerned about tuition costs, though neither confronts one of the causes of higher tuition New York Times, Sept 7, 2012

29. Budget Politics • Sequestration • Supplemental Ed Opportunity Grant (-7.6-8.2%) • TRIO and GEAR UP (-8.2%) • NIH and Energy Dept grants (-8.2%) • Deficit Politics: Entitlements for the Elderly v. Everything Else • Reconciliation: Higher Ed a Bargaining Chip

30. Higher Education Reauthorization 2013 • Lending Authority • Pell Grants • Transparency and Reporting Requirements • Rising Tuition and College Loan Debt • Online education • Student Services • Higher enrollments • Institutional Measures of Performance • Tighter Loan Limits under FAFSA

31. Higher Education Reauthorization 2013 • GOP Unified Government? • Possible Return of Bank Lending • Spending Cuts in Pell Grants • Defense over Domestic Spending Trade Off • Possible Higher Ed Reauthorization Stalemate in Senate: Short term extension • Divided Government? • Preserve Direct Lending • Split difference on Pell Grants • Likely Higher Ed Reauthorization Stalemate