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  1. Opportunity for Higher Education: Consequences of Regressive Policy Choices American Association of Colleges of Pharmacy Seattle, Washington July 12, 2010 Tom Mortenson Senior Scholar The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education Higher Education Policy Analyst Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY Intro

  2. Thesis • Progressive Policy Era: 1862 to 1980 • Federal policy initiatives • State policy initiatives • Institutional responses • Regressive Policy Era: 1980 to present • Federal policy choices • State retrenchment in higher education investments • Institutional pursuit of self-interest

  3. Tertiary Type-A Degree Rates, 25-34 OECD & Partner Count. 2003

  4. Tertiary Type-A Degree Rates, 25-34 OECD & Partner Count. 2007

  5. Change in Tertiary Type A Degree Attain. Rates 25034 yr olds OECD & Partner countries 2000-07

  6. Projected Tertiary Type-A Degree Attain Rate 25-34 yr in OECD 2010

  7. Projected Tertiary Type-A Degree Attain Rate 25-34 yr in OECD 2020

  8. Total Tertiary Type B & A 2007

  9. Public Policy Realities • Changing demography • Changing economy • Globalization

  10. Minority Shares of the Education Populations

  11. High School Graduates 1959 to 2009

  12. Low Income Student Shares of Totals 1970-2009

  13. Total Employment

  14. Distribution of Employment by Industry

  15. Distribution of Goods Producing Employment by Industry

  16. Distribution of Service Providing Employment by Industry

  17. Distribution of Gov Employment Level

  18. Average Family Income by Educational Attainment of Householder

  19. Policy Eras in the United States • 1862 to 1980: The Progressive Policy Era: • Morrill Land Grant Act created state universities • Teachers colleges for universal K-12 education • Community colleges • Need-based financial aid for students • GI Bill for returning World War II military veterans • Supportive services for students • 1980 to Present: The Regressive Policy Era: • Federal shift from grants to loans, abandon needs-test • State reduction in higher education investment efforts • State shift from need-based grants to merit scholarships • Universities and colleges lust for prestige and revenue

  20. Distribution of Revenue Sources for Financing Higher Educ 1952-2008

  21. Share of Federal Student Fin Aid Based on Financial Need 1964-2009

  22. Purchasing Power of Pell Grant Max Award

  23. State Fiscal Support Fy1961 to Fy2010

  24. State Fiscal Support Operating Expenses Higher Ed per $1000 Personal Inc FY2010

  25. Change in State Fiscal Support per $1000 State Personal Inc FY1980-FY2010

  26. Ntl Average Resident Undergrad Tuition – Required Fees Public Inst

  27. Share of State Student Financial Aid Based on Financial Need 1982-2008

  28. Distribution of 4-yr college & Univ Admissions Selectivity

  29. Financial Aid Resources Recvd Full-time, full-yr depend undergrads 1 Institution 2007-08

  30. Financial Resources & Barriers full-time, full-yr depend undergrad 1 Institution 2007-08

  31. Mean Unmet Financial Need by Parents’ Income Quartiles 1990 to 2008

  32. Mean Student Work/Loan Burden by Parents’ Income Quartiles 1990 to 2008

  33. Mean Net Price to Family by Parents’ Income Quartiles 1990 to 2008

  34. Mean Net Price to Family % of Parents Income

  35. Opportunity Consequences of Policy Shift • Redistribution of college enrollments • Stagnation in college participation rates • Growth in bachelor’s degree attainment mainly in the • inherited privilege classes • Growing gaps in educational attainment between shrinking • majority and growing minority populations • Growing income inequality—higher education is an “engine • of division”

  36. HS Grad Rates by Family Income Quartiles

  37. College Continuation Rates by Fam Income Quartiles 1970-2008

  38. College Participation Rates by Fam Income Quartiles

  39. Estimated Bachelor’s Degree Completion by Age 24…Who Began College

  40. Estimated Baccalaureate Degree Attainment by age 24 1970-2008

  41. Change in Est. Baccalaureate Degree Attainment by age 24 1977-79 to 2006-08

  42. Distribution Bach Degrees Awarded by Age 24 FamInc Quartiles 1970 to 2008

  43. College Particip Rate Gap

  44. Share Pell Grant Recips Enrolled Public&Private 4-yr Fy1974-2009p