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On the Other Hand. Wisconsin Economics Association. Dennis Winters Chief, Office of Economic Advisors Department of Workforce Development November 8, 2013. ECONOMIC RECOVERY HOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES. 2. ECONOMIC RECOVERY HOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES. 3.

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On the Other Hand

Wisconsin Economics Association

Dennis Winters

Chief, Office of Economic Advisors

Department of Workforce Development

November 8, 2013


ECONOMIC RECOVERYHOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES

2


ECONOMIC RECOVERYHOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES

3


JOBS RECOVERYHOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES



RECESSION COMPARISONSLAGGING ACROSS ALL INDICATORS

6

Source: William Testa, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago


It is difficult to increase consumption

when you:

have stagnant income,

are losing wealth,

paying down debt,

increasing savings,

and are paying more for food and gas.


REAL ESTATE EQUITY

GETTING A NICE REBOUND


SECURITIES’ APPRECIATION

IS GETTING US BACK OVER THE HUMP


MANAGING RISK

WHERE IS THE INCENTIVE TO EXPAND


JOBS GROWTH SCENARIOSCONTRAINTS ON ECONOMY

Thousands

5.5%

6.5%

7.5%

8.5%

9.5%

Q1 ‘17

Q1 ‘15

Unemployment rates assume a participation rate of 63.5%

Source: William Testa, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago


WISCONSIN JOBS

ARE SHOWING A STEADY CLIMB


WISCONSIN MANUFACTURING JOBS

ARE ALSO ON THE UPTICK


WISCONSIN JOBS RECOVERYVERSUS PREVIOUS CYCLES

14


AGE COHORTSTREATED DIFFERENTLY

15

Source: OEA, BLS



NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS

HAVE RECOVERED VALUE


OVERALL NON-CORPORATE PRIVATE

BALANCE SHEET IMPROVING


FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT

ON THE OTHER HAND


SWAPPING

SECURITIES FOR CASH


EXTENDING CREDIT

BANKS ARE RETICENT TO LEND FUNDS

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Data Download Program


STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENTS

HAVE LARGELY RECOVERED


STATE AND LOCAL SPENDING

ON A NEW TRAJECTORY


He said,

She said.


HE SAID,

HEY BABE, LOOK THE ECONOMY IS GROWING NICELY


SHE SAID,

WE STILL HAVE A WAYS TO GO, DEAR


HE SAID

LOOK HONEY, HOUSING MARKET IS UP NICELY


SHE SAID

SWEETHEART, WE’RE NEVER GETTING BACK THERE


HE SAID,

SUGAR, JOBS ARE CLIMBING

thousands


SHE SAID,

DARLING, DON’T PISS OFF YOUR BOSS


HE SAID,

LOVE, THEY’RE JACKING UP WAGES EVERYWHERE

  • The minimum wage will increase in 10 states on January 1, 2013.

  • Employers to be more generous with pay raises next year, CNNMoney.

  • An improving job market is boosting wages, Herald and News.

  • SHRM consensus is for an average budget increase of 3 percent.

  • Hay Group says 3 percent salary increases in 2013.


SHE SAID,

JIM, GET A GRIP


HE SAID,

DREAMBOAT, WE’RE GONNA BE RICH

INCOME GROWTH

(Q1:2010 – Q3:2012)

Source: BEA, OEA


SHE SAID,

WILL YOU WAKE UP AND SMELL THE COFFEE


Who

is in

demand?


MOST JOB OPENINGS

BY OCCUPATION

*Job Openings includes both turnover and new jobs that are created.


MOST JOB OPENINGS

ON JOB CENTER OF WISCONSIN



WHAT TRAINING TO PURSUE

FIVE MAKE ALL THREE LISTS



CONTACT INFORMATION

  • Dennis Winters

  • Phone: 608-267-3262

  • Email: [email protected]

  • Website:www.dwd.wisconsin.gov

  • OEA website: www.dwd.wisconsin.gov/oea


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