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The Millennium Project July, 2007 PowerPoint Presentation
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The Millennium Project July, 2007

The Millennium Project July, 2007

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The Millennium Project July, 2007

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  1. The Millennium Project July, 2007

  2. Real Time Delphi to identify variables, “best and worst” forecasts, and weights for SOFI. • Construction of the 2007 SOFI, using these variables, with attention to national SOFIs. • Establishing National SOFI Standards • Systematizing Excel spreadsheet approach for national SOFIs

  3. The Real Time Delphi Sample

  4. The Real Time Delphi Sample

  5. Variables Domains • Intellectual • Literacy, enrollments, R&D, Internet • Health • Life expectancy, infant mortality, physicians, HIV, food • Wealth • GDP/cap, unemployment, poverty, debt service • Security • Terrorist attacks, nuc proliferation, refugees • Moral • Corruption, freedom, voting, women in parliaments • Physical • Water, CO2, forests, temperature, renewables

  6. Dashboard Experiments: Getting Worse

  7. Health, Wealth, and Intellect Health, Intellect, and Wealth

  8. Security, Morality, Physical

  9. Global vs. National Importance

  10. The Standardized Variables

  11. Three Types of SOFI’s • Global • National Comparison • National Focus

  12. Toward Standardization of SOFIs

  13. The Excel SOFI Spreadsheets • History of variables and extrapolation • SOFI Baseline • TIA Developments • Events and Variables • TIA (and macro) • SOFI with TIA

  14. Example of Output From Sheet 5

  15. SOFI Materials Available to Nodes • Excel spreadsheets • Reports • Millennium Project Study of State of the Future Index Variables and Their Use in Country to Country Comparisons (the Real Time Delphi) • Building the 2007 SOFI • A Standardized Approach to Building National SOFIs

  16. Remaining Work • Produce robust “enterprise level” software • Review and utilize the "standard" for national SOFI's • Construct and compare national SOFI’s • Conduct an analysis designed to find whether country SOFI’s (weighted by population) add up to the global SOFI. • Experiments with other applications (e.g. corporate SOFI’s) • Consider other dimensions (e.g. a measure of national innovativeness) • Review and improve TIA judgments • Construct on line data bases of variables and events to facilitate national and other applications.