Outline

1. Numerical Modeling of the Impacts of Climate Change on Pacific Northwest HydrologyJennifer AdamOctober 12, 2009Assistant ProfessorCivil and Environmental Engineering

2. Outline • Background • Research • Teaching

3. Background • B.S., University of Colorado, Boulder, 1997 • Focus: environmental engineering, research on the removal of manganese in nitrification filters • Peace Corps, Solomon Islands, 1997-1999 • secondary education, mathematics • M.S., University of Washington, 2002 • Focus: hydrology, research on removal of biases in precipitation observations • Ph.D., University of Washington, 2007 • Focus: hydrology, climate change impacts on streamflow in Northern Eurasia • Assistant Professor, WSU, 2008-present

4. RESEARCH Hydrological Modeling Climate Change Impact Analysis Land Use Change Impact Analysis

5. Research: Outline • Historical and predicted changes in climate • Overview of modeling technique to assess climate change impacts on water-related issues • Examples of current research projects

6. Research: Outline • Historical and predicted changes in climate • Overview of modeling technique to assess climate change impacts on water-related issues • Examples of current research projects

7. 1901-2005 Temperature Changes Globally averaged, the planet is about 0.75°C warmer than it was in 1860. IPCC AR4 (2007)

8. 1901-2005 Precipitation Changes IPCC AR4 (2007)

9. Predicted Temperature Changes A1B 2090-2099 IPCC AR4 (2007)

10. Predicted Precipitation Changes A1B 2090-2099 IPCC AR4 (2007)

11. Predicted changes in the Pacific Northwest (by 2040) • Temperature: • +1.4 to 2.7 °C • Precipitation: • Fall, Winter, Spring: +2.3 to 5.8% • Summer: -5.1 to -11.2% UW CIG Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment (2009)

12. Research: Outline • Historical and predicted changes in climate • Overview of modeling technique to assess climate change impacts on water-related issues • Examples of current research projects

13. Overview of the modeling framework

14. 1. Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios Future climate effects depends on future emissions of important greenhouse gases such as CO2 - a socioeconomic uncertainty [Based on IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios.]

15. 2. The Global Climate Model (GCM) A. Henderson-Sellers and K. McGuffie, A Climate Modelling Primer, Wiley, 1987

16. 3. Downscaling GCM Downscaled Original GCM values Slide courtesy of A. Wood

17. Variables that are a function of temperature ET = f(LH) Rs P Rlw LH SH ET Heat Storage, T Q Moisture Storage GH 4. Hydrological Modeling Water Balance Energy Balance Slide courtesy of A. Wood

18. Examples of Hydrology Models • Physically-based • Fully-distributed • Continuous VIC: 100 km x 100 km DHSVM: 150 m x 150 m

19. Required Land Surface Characteristics Puget Sound Regional Synthesis Model (PRISM)

20. Adding reservoir operations to a modeling system VIC Hydrology Model River Routing Model Reservoir Model 1 2 3 4 Adam et al. 2007

21. Research: Outline • Historical and predicted changes in climate • Overview of modeling technique to assess climate change impacts on water-related issues • Examples of current research projects

22. (1) Improving the adaptability of dryland agriculture to climate change • Who? • Josh Van Wie (MS Student, graduating Spring, 2010) • Jeff Ullman (Faculty, Biological Systems Engineering) • Mike Barber (Faculty, Civil and Env. Engineering) • Motivation and Goals • Dryland (non-irrigated) agriculture may become more vulnerable in a changing climate • Therefore, we are seeking to understand which agricultural practices may improve soil water retention for crop use

23. Study Area: The Palouse Basin South Fork Basin

24. Preliminary Model Results (using DHSVM) Drainage Network Land Cover Topography Simulated Observed

25. Future Directions • Near-Term: • Adjusting DHSVM soil and vegetation parameters to account for changes in cropping practices (e.g., traditional versus conservation tillage) • Applying DHSVM to examine the hydrologic impacts of a widespread adoption of conservation practices • Longer-Term: • Coupling to a dynamic crop growth model (CropSyst) to examine the impacts on crop yield • Performing climate change simulations to examine the adaptability of Palouse Basin agriculture to climate alterations

26. (2) Impacts of climate change and forest practices on landslide susceptibility • Who? • Muhammad Barik (MS Student, graduating Spring, 2010) • Balasingam Muhunthan (Faculty, Civil and Env. Engineering) • Mike Barber (Faculty, Civil and Env. Engineering) • And others… • Motivation and Goals • Climate change may increase landslide susceptibility in commercial forests with steep terrain. This may result in an increase of sediment to streams and rivers with ecological consequences. • We seek to explore what best management practices in commercial forests will promote the protection of riparian areas in an altered climate.

27. Study Area: Basins of the Olympic Experimental State Forest (OESF)

28. Preliminary Results for the Queets Basin

29. Q Qsed DHSVM Erosion and Sediment Transport Module MASS WASTING Soil Moisture Content Sediment Channel Flow Sediment DHSVM Precipitation Leaf Drip Infiltration and Saturation Excess Runoff CHANNEL ROUTING Erosion Deposition ROAD EROSION HILLSLOPE EROSION

30. (3) Impacts of climate change on sediment generation in the Potlatch Basin • Who? • Erika Ottenbreit (MS Student, graduating Fall, 2010) • Mike Barber (Faculty, Civil and Env. Engineering) • Motivation and Goals • Sediment generated over agriculture areas may end up in streams and rivers causing a variety of environmental and engineering problems. • Therefore, we are seeking to understand how sediment generation in agricultural basins may be impacted by projected changes in climate.

31. Study Area: The Potlatch Basin • Application of DHSVM hydrology and sediment modules • Will simulate sediment generation for historical and future climates • Evaluation of model results with a turbidity meter near the basin outlet Latah County Clearwater River

32. (4) Impacts of climate change on stormwater runoff across the PNW • Who? • Greg Karlovits (MS Student, graduating Fall, 2010) • Liv Haselbach (Faculty, Civil and Env. Engineering) • Motivation and Goals • Climate change may result in increased flooding because extreme rainfall events may become more frequent, more precipitation will fall as rain (versus snow). There is a need to identify the critical stormwater infrastructure in the region. • We are seeking to develop regional maps showing how runoff volumes (due to the 2-year, 25-year, and 50-year storms) are changing in response to projected climate change. We will be placing confidence bounds on these estimates.

33. Impacts on extreme rain events Model simulated changes in extreme rainfall, southern England. Huntingford et al. 2006

34. (5) Water supply and demand forecasting over the Columbia River Basin • Who? • Kirti Rajagopalan (PhD Student) • Mike Barber (Faculty, Civil and Env. Engineering) • Claudio Stockle (Faculty, Biological Systems Engineering) • Mike Brady (Faculty, Economics) • And many others… • Motivation and Goals • Climate change is expected to change Columbia flows, while temperature changes impact crop water use. Changes in water supply as well as the socioeconomic environment will impact the type of crop being cultivated as well as the irrigation efficiency. • We will be forecasting (for the year 2030) water supply and irrigation-water demand over the Columbia River Basin as information required by the WS Dept of Ecology to make water allocation decisions.

35. Study Area: The Columbia River Basin • 1,250 miles long • Drains 258,000 square miles • Contributing runoff from 7 states and 2 countries • Highly regulated

36. Modeling Strategy

37. (6) Coupled Air/Land Modeling of the Nitrogen Cycle • Funding through a new IGERT, “Nitrogen Systems: Policy-oriented Integrated Research and Education (NSPIRE)” • Who? • PI Brian Lamb (Faculty, Civil and Env. Engineering) • Multiple others: Shane Brown, Bill Budd, Dave Evans, Andy Ford, Kris Johnson, Kent Keller, Bill Pan, Shelley Pressley, … • Motivation and Goals • An improvement in the management of Nitrogen use is paramount. Environmental Nitrogen causes problems both to human and environmental health. Conversely, its sustainable production is needed for agricultural purposes. • An improved understanding of Nitrogen genesis, fate, and transport in the environment can be improved by a coupled atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere modeling tool.

38. TEACHING CE 351 Water Resources Engineering CE 456 Sustainable Development in Water Resources CE 552 Hydroclimatology

39. CEE 543Hydroclimatology • Spring semester • Topics • Basics of hydrologic and climate sciences • Introduction of analysis tools: statistics, hydrological modeling, climate data downscaling, remote sensing • Literature review of climate change impacts on the water cycle

40. CE 456 Sustainable Development in Water Resources • Fall semester • New class (first teaching Fall 2009) • Elective for CEE students • Topics • Water resource supplies in the Pacific Northwest • Current and future water demands • Climate change impacts on water supplies • Current developments in sustainable design • Risk analysis

41. CE 351 Water Resources Engineering • Offered Every Fall and Spring semester • Required course for all CEE undergraduates • Topics • Pipe flow • Pumping systems • Introduction to open channel flow • Introduction to hydrology

42. Thank You!

43. Example. Impacts on water suppliesand flooding potential

44. Effects to the Cedar River (Seattle Water Supply) for “Middle-of-the-Road” Scenarios +1.7 C +2.5 C Slide courtesy of Alan Hamlet, UW CIG

45. Mapping of global snowmelt-dominated regions Approximately 1/6th of the world’s population may be affected Barnett et al. 2005

46. Mapping of Washington State snowmelt-dominated regions Elsner et al. 2009

47. Summary of flooding impacts Rain Dominant Basins: Possible increases in flooding due to increased precipitation variability, but no significant change from warming alone. Mixed Rain and Snow Basins Along the Coast: Strong increases due to warming and increased precipitation variability (both effects increase flood risk) Inland Snowmelt Dominant Basins: Relatively small overall changes because effects of warming (decreased risks) and increased precipitation variability (increased risks) are in the opposite directions. Slide courtesy of Alan Hamlet