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PS477/577: International Environmental Politics. Prof. Ronald B. Mitchell rmitchel@uoregon.edu. Julia Butterfly Hill. What problem did Hill want to fix? What was Hill’s solution to it? Was her solution effective / did it work? If so, what do you mean by “effective”?

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ps477 577 international environmental politics

PS477/577:International Environmental Politics

Prof. Ronald B. Mitchell

rmitchel@uoregon.edu

julia butterfly hill
Julia Butterfly Hill
  • What problem did Hill want to fix?
  • What was Hill’s solution to it?
  • Was her solution effective / did it work?
    • If so, what do you mean by “effective”?
    • If you believe it was effective, would you do it?
    • Are there other actions that would be more effective?
    • Why do you think they are more effective?
in class exercise
In-Class Exercise

Write Down

  • Problem: one international environmental problem that you are concerned about
  • Cause: what you think is the most important cause of that problem
  • Solution: a policy you think could make a major contribution to fixing the problem
slide5

Different land use practices visible across country border, Mexico/Guatemala

  • 1974 - 2000: Conversion of forest to agriculture
  • Now country border can be seen even from space
haitian deforestation
Haitian Deforestation

Dominican Republic

Haiti

Source: NASA - Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio (Darrel Williams, Alex Kekesi, Stuart Snodgrass), 2002 (25 Sep). “Haitian Deforestation.” http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a002600/a002640/index.html.

deforestation rondonia brazil
Deforestation: Rondonia, Brazil

Title

Body text

  • 1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
  • 1986 -“Fishbone” pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
  • 2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover.
slide8

Disappearing temperate forests of Olympic Peninsula, United States

  • 1974: Shows patchwork of purple and pink, indicating clear-cutting
  • 2000: Evidence of good re-growth of trees in forest reserve areas
wetlands loss us everglades
Wetlands Loss:US Everglades

1850

1995

Source: Exploring the Environment Team. 2003 (23 January) “Remote Sensing: Waterflow” Wheeling Jesuit University, Center for Educational Technologies http://www.cotf.edu/ete/modules/everglades/FEremote2.html

wetlands loss intentional drainage in iraq
Wetlands Loss:Intentional Drainage in Iraq

2000

1973

Source: Kirby, Alex. 2001 (16 May) “Mesopotamia's marshes 'set to vanish’” BBC News Online http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/1332128.stm

desertification aral sea 1960 2000
Desertification:Aral Sea 1960-2000
  • World’s 4th largest body of freshwater:
  • Volume down 60%
  • Area down 50%
  • Salinity up 100%

Source: Ressl, Rainier. German Aerospace Center (DLR) 1999 (22 Feb). “Chronology of the dessication of the Aral Sea.” http://www.dfd.dlr.de/app/land/aralsee/chronology.html.

slide12

Dramatic changes in Dead Sea, Jordan

Images show dramatic changes in the Dead sea over 30 years

  • 1973: The Sea level is dropping at the rate of 1m/year
  • 2002: Notice the expansion of salt works, and near-complete closing off of the southern part by dry land
slide13

Changes due to Three Gorges Dam construction, China

Changes due to the construction of dam

  • 1987: Nature of the river and surrounding landscape before the dam
  • 2004: The enormous dam is clearly visible
slide14

Title

Urbanization:London, England

Body text

  • The capital and largest city of the United Kingdom
  • Area of 659 sq. mi. (1 706 sq. km.)
  • Over 7 million residents.
  • Population projected to approach 8 million by 2021.
urbanization dhaka bangladesh
Urbanization:Dhaka, Bangladesh

Title

Body text

1977-2000: the capital of Bangladesh, has grown from a city of 2.5 million more than 10 million.

aquaculture impact gulf of fonseca honduras
Aquaculture Impact:Gulf of Fonseca,Honduras

Title

Body text

  • Over a period of 12 years, the images reveal how shrimp farms and ponds have mushroomed carpeting the landscape around the Gulf of Fonseca, Honduras, in blocks of blue and black shapes.
  • Honduras is second only to Ecuador in the cultivation and export of shrimp from Latin America.
slide17

Title

Agriculture Impact:Al Isawiyah, Saudi Arabia

Body text

Greening of a desert

  • 1986 -A desert landscape
  • 1991 -Irrigation begins…
  • 2000 -And transforms the desert
  • 2004 –Irrigation intensity increases
luxury impact las vegas united states
Luxury Impact?Las Vegas, United States

Title

Body text

  • 1973 -A small settlement
  • 2000 -The landscape is now dramatically modified
oil entering the oceans
Oil Entering the Oceans

Source: National Academy of Sciences’ Committee on Oil in the Sea. 2002. Oil in the Sea III: Inputs, Fates, and Effects Washington, DC: Ocean Studies Board, Division on Earth and Life Studies, and Marine Board, Transportation Research Board, p. 33. Available at: http://books.nap.edu/books/0309084385/gifmid/41.gif

decline in large fish biomass fish 100 hooks on japanese longlines
Decline in Large Fish Biomass(fish/100 hooks on Japanese longlines)

1952

1958

1964

1980

Source: Myers, Ransom A., and Boris Worm. 2003. “Rapid worldwide depletion of predatory fish communities.” Nature 423, 280-283. http://www.nature.com/cgi-taf/DynaPage.taf?file=/nature/journal/v423/n6937/full/nature01610_fs.html

decline in large fish biomass fish 100 hooks on japanese longlines1
Decline in Large Fish Biomass(fish/100 hooks on Japanese longlines)

Source: Myers, Ransom A., and Boris Worm. 2003. “Rapid worldwide depletion of predatory fish communities.” Nature 423, 280-283. http://www.nature.com/cgi-taf/DynaPage.taf?file=/nature/journal/v423/n6937/full/nature01610_fs.html

fish disappearance
Fish Disappearance
  • Virtually all marine life other than jellyfish has disappeared from the Black Sea, because of hypoxia induced by discharges from the Danube, Dneiper, and Don Rivers (source: Woodward, 2000, Ocean’s End cited in Clark, 2006, World Fisheries)
ozone depletion
Ozone Depletion

Title

Body text

Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years, as observed by the satellite

Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion.

indoor air pollution
Indoor Air Pollution

“Exposure to indoor air pollution is one of the major contributing factors leading to acute respiratory infections which cause an estimated 4 million deaths of young children each year” – World Bank (1992, pp.52-53)

healthy life expectancy by country
Healthy Life ExpectancyBy Country

Source: Colin D Mathers, Ritu Sadana, Joshua A Salomon, Christopher JL Murray, and Alan D Lopez. 2000. "Estimates of DALE for 191 countries: methods and results." Global Programme on Evidence for Health Policy Working Paper No. 16 of the World Health Organization, June. http://w3.whosea.org/healthreport/pdf/paper16.pdf

simple as salt
Simple as Salt
  • Iodine deficiency
  • “One-third of the world’s people don’t get enough iodine from food and water”
  • Children of an iodine-deficient mother likely to have “an IQ that is 10 to 15 points lower than it would otherwise be”
  • Adding iodine to salt costs 2 to 3 cents per person per year
  • Source: Nicholas Kristof. Raising the World’s I.Q. New York Times. December 4, 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/04/opinion/04kristof.html
the epidemic scorecard
The Epidemic Scorecard

Source: Howard Markel, Stephen Doyle. 2003 (30 April). “The Epidemic Scorecard.” New York Times, A31 http://www.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/opinion/030430_edt_MARK.pdf.

variations of the earth s surface temperature for past 1000 years
Variations of the Earth's Surface Temperature for Past 1000 Years

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2001. Climate change 2001: the scientific basis, summary for policymakers (a report of Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 3. At: http://www.ipcc.ch/present/cop65/johnhoughton.ppt

variations of the earth s surface temperature for past 140 years
Variations of the Earth's Surface Temperature for Past 140 Years

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2001. Climate change 2001: the scientific basis, summary for policymakers (a report of Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 3.

atmospheric co2 concentrations from mauna loa
Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations from Mauna Loa

Source: Keeling, C.D. and T.P. Whorf. 2002. Atmospheric CO2 records from sites in the SIO air sampling network. In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Oak Ridge: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy.

contributions of human emissions to climate change
Contributions of Human Emissions to Climate Change
  • Carbon dioxide (CO2)
    • Fossil fuel use (57%)
    • Deforestation, etc. (17%)
    • Other (3%)
  • Methane (CH4) (14%)
  • Nitrous oxide (N20) (8%)
  • Other gases (1%)

Source: “Global contribution of human-related greenhouse gas emissions to enhanced greenhouse gas effect since preindustrial times”

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/economics/international.html

total emissions 2007 of top 20 co2 emitters
Total Emissions (2007)of Top 20 CO2 Emitters

Source: Boden, T.A., G. Marland, and R.J. Andres. 2010. Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A. doi 10.3334/CDIAC/00001_V2010 http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.html

per capita emissions 2007 of top 20 co2 emitters
Per Capita Emissions (2007)of Top 20 CO2 Emitters

Source: Boden, T.A., G. Marland, and R.J. Andres. 2010. Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A. doi 10.3334/CDIAC/00001_V2010 http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.html

average global temperatures
Average Global Temperatures
  • Video of historical averages and future projections
changes in sea ice extent
Changes in sea ice extent

Sept 1980

The Arctic sea ice cover

Siberia

Greenland

Alaska

September 1980: 7.8 million square kilometers

Slides courtesy of Chris Polashenski, U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory

changes in sea ice extent1
Changes in sea ice extent

Sept 2012

Siberia

Greenland

Alaska

September 2012: 3.4 million square kilometers

Slides courtesy of Chris Polashenski, U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory

changes in sea ice extent2
Changes in sea ice extent

September 1980

Slides courtesy of Chris Polashenski, U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory

changes in sea ice extent3
Changes in sea ice extent

Reduction from 1980 to 2012

Huge decrease in ice extent

Slides courtesy of Chris Polashenski, U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory

slide42

Calving of Ninnis Glacier, Antarctica

22 January 2000: Shows Ninnis Glacier Tongue soon after the initial calving

5 February 2002: Iceberg split into two sections and started moving away from Ninnis Glacier

slide43

Disappearing ice cap of Mt. KilimanjaroTanzania

Africa’s highest mountain with a forest belt containing a rich diversity of ecosystems

  • 1976: Glaciers covered most of the summit
  • 2006: The glaciers had receded alarmingly
upsala glacier argentina
Upsala Glacier, Argentina

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/picture_gallery/05/sci_nat_how_the_world_is_changing/html/1.stm

effects of increased co2 on glaciers loss in last 100 years
Effects of Increased CO2 onGlaciers (Loss in Last 100 Years)

Kärnten, Austria

Source: Gesellschaft für ökologische Forschung e.V. 2002. Das gletscherarchiv. http://www.gletscherarchiv.de/. Accessed on: 15 January 2003.

slide47

Does the Columbia Freeze Over Anymore?Colubmia River froze over in: 1830, 1833, 1840, 1842, 1847, 1849(2x), 1856, 1875, 1862, 1868, 1884, 1885, 1888, 1890, 1891, 1894, 1896, 1907, 1909, 1916, 1919, 1930 *

Picture: Hood River, Oregon, W. D. Rogers, 1/17/1907; Oregon Historical Society Photo OrHi 35431 (http://librarycatalog.ohs.org/)

Columbia “generally freezes up once in the winter” from a trial in 1882 at http://books.google.com/books?id=wZA8AAAAIAAJ (p. 1393)

*Data on freezes compiled from: http://www.pacificcohistory.org/columbia.htm; http://historyink.com/results.cfm?keyword=Weather&searchfield=topics; and http://www.nwmapsco.com/ZybachB/Thesis/05-081_Chapter_3b.pdf (p. 86)

effects of increased co2 on ocean creatures

Low CO2

High CO2

Effects of Increased CO2 onOcean Creatures

Scanning electron microscope pictures of coccolithophorids under different CO2 concentrations. a, b, c: at 300 ppmv and d, e, f at 780-850 ppmv. Note the difference in the coccolith structure (including distinct malformations) and in the degree of calcification of cells grown at normal and elevated CO2 levels. (Source: Riebesell, U, I Zondervan, B Rost, P Tortell, R Zeebe, and F Morel. 2000. “Reduced calcification of marine plankton in response to increased atmospheric CO2.” Nature 407 (21 September), 364-367.)

slide51

Growing at 2.4% per year since 1996

Emissions Double by 2041

(Oregon: 1.6% per year)

Sources: Calculated based on Global: World Development Indicators, 2010;

Oregon: http://www.oregon.gov/ENERGY/GBLWRM/Oregon_Gross_GhG_Inventory_1990-2005.htm ; http://www.oregon.gov/DAS/OEA/docs/demographic/pop_components.xls ; and http://www.bea.gov/regional/gsp/

3 drivers of emissions
3 drivers of emissions
  • IPAT

Impact = Population * Affluence * Technology

  • Impact: environmental harm
  • Population: # of people
  • Affluence: $ per person (income)
  • Technology: impact per $ (carbon intensity)
slide53

Growing at 1.3% per year since 1996

Doubles by 2065, all else equal

(Oregon: 1.7% per year)

Sources: Calculated based on Global: World Development Indicators, 2010;

Oregon: http://www.oregon.gov/ENERGY/GBLWRM/Oregon_Gross_GhG_Inventory_1990-2005.htm ; http://www.oregon.gov/DAS/OEA/docs/demographic/pop_components.xls ; and http://www.bea.gov/regional/gsp/

slide54

Growing at 1.8% per year since 1996

Doubles by 2050, all else equal

(Oregon: 4.3% per year)

Sources: Calculated based on Global: World Development Indicators, 2010;

Oregon: http://www.oregon.gov/ENERGY/GBLWRM/Oregon_Gross_GhG_Inventory_1990-2005.htm ; http://www.oregon.gov/DAS/OEA/docs/demographic/pop_components.xls ; and http://www.bea.gov/regional/gsp/

slide55

Growing at 3.1% (1.3+1.8) per year since 1996Doubles by 2033, all else equal

(Oregon: 6.0% per year)

Sources: Calculated based on Global: World Development Indicators, 2010;

Oregon: http://www.oregon.gov/ENERGY/GBLWRM/Oregon_Gross_GhG_Inventory_1990-2005.htm ; http://www.oregon.gov/DAS/OEA/docs/demographic/pop_components.xls ; and http://www.bea.gov/regional/gsp/

doubling co2 emissions
Doubling CO2 emissions
  • We will double CO2 emissions by
    • 2033: assuming current population & affluence growth rates (3.1%) continue
  • To reduce emissions requires technology improvements that are greater than 3.1% per year
  • So, what about technology?
slide57

-0.7% per year since 1996(Oregon: -4.2% per year)

Sources: Calculated based on Global: World Development Indicators, 2010;

Oregon: http://www.oregon.gov/ENERGY/GBLWRM/Oregon_Gross_GhG_Inventory_1990-2005.htm ; http://www.oregon.gov/DAS/OEA/docs/demographic/pop_components.xls ; and http://www.bea.gov/regional/gsp/

cutting co2 emissions in half
Cutting CO2 emissions in half
  • We will double CO2 emissions by
    • 2033: assuming current population & affluence growth rates (3.1%) continue
  • With NO population OR affluence growth, we will cut emissions in half by:
    • 2110: assuming current carbon intensity improvement rates (0.7%) continue
    • 0.7% is NOT greater than 3.1% per year
how should we distinguish
How should we distinguish
  • Important from less important problems
  • Real from false causes of problems
  • Effective from ineffective solutions
class summary
Class Summary
  • Class goal: think more systematically about problems, causes, and solutions so you can make a more effective difference in the world
  • Review Syllabus
  • Review Assignment Packet (it’s long)
  • Do plagiarism assignment on Blackboard for Thursday
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