Integrated Energy Modeling Framework for Urban-Rural Patterns

1. VLEEM-TILT model inputs/outputs PACT Mid-term Assessment Meeting Brussel, 18 May 2010 EC, DG-Research E. Bellevrat, B. Château, B. Bougnoux

2. VLEEM-BASES: a conceptual and analytical framework • Needs for energy services of households per main socio-cultural function: « food », « shelter », « self accomplishment », « paid labour », « transportation » • Useful energy, a common metering tool across energy services, is determined by the number of households, the time-budgets, the information content and the affluence • Life-styles and preferences of a generation of people are captured with time-budgets and equipment: they are assumed to be acquired at 25 and to change only marginally afterwards Link with TILT model

3. POLES: a « multi-issues » analytical model • POLES : Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems GHG Abatement Policies Technological development National / sub-regional issues (47 countries) International issues: energy supply (71 countries) Transformation / secondary fuels Final demand (energy & materials) (t) (t) (t) Activity indicators International prices (t+1)

4. Articulation of VLEEM and POLES models in PACT • Back-casting approach in VLEEM model to assess the fundamentals of energy demand across urban-rural patterns • Simulation process with the POLES model, based on VLEEM-TILT outputs to produce integrated Energy-Transport-Environment projections • => Soft-Link between the two models

5. Roles and boundaries of VLEEM and POLES models • Spatial representation as defined in WP1 (or an adapted version of this representation) is being introduced in the POLES and VLEEM models An issue remains for the category “small/medium size cities” in the POLES model (role of network connexions with suburbs) • VLEEM will produce activity indicators for the building and transport sectors for each space category, at the EU27 scale: nb of dwellings, pkm and tkm... • The POLES activity variables will be calibrated using VLEEM outputs (at the European scale); the model will then quantify the Post-Carbon Scenarios (energy balances / emissions at the country level), with explicit technological development

6. Introducing space dimensions in VLEEM-TILT models • VLEEM model uses categories corresponding to different socio-economic behaviours, considered as the fundamentals for long-term energy demand • Urban and rural sub-dimensions, as defined in WP1, will be used to refine socio-economic representation VLEEM model • The categories are adapted to tackle the time - space - speedequation as described in TILT model: • Daily hours of transport • Distance • Average speed • Both intra and inter-regional travels are taken into account in TILT model Time-Speed dimension Fast URBAN Alone Together RURAL Space dimension Slow

7. New features to be tackled in VLEEM • Socio-economic drivers • Demography : dynamics are different across the space categories (so as possible policies); migrants are to be mainly integrated in suburbs • Time-budgets : behind each “function”, there is an associated time for transportation; so we need to distinguish between 3 types of travels across space categories (daily mandatory, daily flexible, occasional long) • Energy services • Transportation : the logical behind equipment rates of cars depends on the space category and should be linked to the respective time-budgets • Shelter : we need to detail building configurations on various areas; use of the intensity of land-use (land occupation density in m2/cap); this allows for representing both population density and households structures (collective vs individual) • Services : spatial distribution of employments in the tertiary sector has a potentially huge impact on people’s mobility

8. Input data requirements for VLEEM-TILT modelling • Many variables (mainly socio-economic) are required as inputs of VLEEM model • A set of data is needed for each space category as defined in WP1