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Demand Resource Operable Capacity Analysis – Assumptions & Results Markets Committee October 22, 2008 John Norden. Overview. Present Results of Demand Resource Operable Capacity Analysis (DROCA) Why DROCA Uses for the data Assumption Development Review System Wide Analysis

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    1. Demand Resource Operable Capacity Analysis – Assumptions & ResultsMarkets CommitteeOctober 22, 2008 John Norden

    2. Overview • Present Results of Demand Resource Operable Capacity Analysis (DROCA) • Why DROCA • Uses for the data • Assumption Development • Review System Wide Analysis • Review Load Zone Analysis • Appendices

    3. Why a Demand Response Operable Capacity Analysis • The Market Rule changes approved by the MC and PC and filed with the FERC on October 1, 2008 require the following: • III.13.1.4.8. Demand Resource Operable Capacity Analysis. • The ISO shall perform a Demand Resource Operable Capacity Analysis, which estimates the expected dispatch hours of active Demand Resources given different assumed levels of Demand Resources clearing in the primary Forward Capacity Auction, prior to each primary Forward Capacity Auction. The Demand Resource Operable Capacity Analysis shall be performed: (i) on a system-wide and Load Zone basis, (ii) at least 30 business days prior to the Existing Capacity Qualification Deadline, with the exception that the Demand Resource Operable Capacity Analysis shall be performed at least 30 business days prior to the first day of the Forward Capacity Auction for the Capacity Commitment Period beginning June 1, 2011

    4. Uses for Demand Resource Operable Capacity Analysis Provides a system wide forecast of potential Demand Resource usage in the Capacity Commitment Period (CCP) prior to participating in the Forward Capacity Auction Provides a Load Zone forecast of potential Demand Resource usage in the CCP prior to participating in the Forward Capacity Auction Provides information for use during the auction process to aid in determining potential Demand Resource operation The ISO plans to release the spreadsheet used to develop this analysis so that participants can develop their own scenarios and assumptions After the MC meeting on 10/22, the presentation and supporting spreadsheets will be posted in a new subdirectory at http://www.iso-ne.com/markets/othrmkts_data/fcm/reports/index.html

    5. Assumptions • The analysis uses assumptions based upon • Purchasing the required amount of Installed Capacity Requirement (ICR) for the System Wide study • A set of Transmission Security Analysis values developed by System Planning for the Load Zone studies • Detailed assumptions appear in the Appendices to this presentation

    6. Disclaimers System Wide numbers have been updated to reflect capacity qualification for FCA #2 Final auction results may clear more or less resources and can significantly change the forecasted interruptions Load Zone and System Wide hours of operation have potential overlap. The Load Zone hours of operation are so small that this should not be a concern. Future analysis will have to consider overlap hours if local operation increases The analysis is a forecast only and should be used at the participants' sole discretion. Actual conditions could vary widely from the forecast developed.

    7. Summary of ResultsSystem Wide

    8. New England Intermediate Scenario Active DR and OP 4 Need

    9. New England Monthly Results Intermediate DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast

    10. New England – Summary of ResultsLow, Inter & High DR Scenarios with 50-50 Load Forecast

    11. Summary of ResultsLoad Zones

    12. CT Monthly Results Intermediate DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast

    13. CT Summary of Results Low, Inter & High DR Scenarios with 50-50 Load Forecast

    14. ME Monthly Results Intermediate DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast

    15. ME Summary of Results Low, Inter & High DR Scenarios with 50-50 Load Forecast

    16. NH Monthly Results Intermediate DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast

    17. NH Summary of Results Low, Inter & High DR Scenarios with 50-50 Load Forecast

    18. WCMASS Monthly Results Intermediate DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast

    19. WCMASS Summary of Results Low, Inter & High DR Scenarios with 50-50 Load Forecast

    20. VT Monthly Results Intermediate DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast

    21. VT Summary of Results Low, Inter & High DR Scenarios with 50-50 Load Forecast

    22. SEMA Monthly Results Intermediate DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast

    23. SEMA Summary of Results Low, Inter & High DR Scenarios with 50-50 Load Forecast

    24. NEMASS/Boston Monthly Results Intermediate DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast

    25. NEMASS/Boston Summary of Results Low, Inter & High DR Scenarios with 50-50 Load Forecast

    26. RI Monthly Results Intermediate DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast

    27. RI Summary of Results Low, Inter & High DR Scenarios with 50-50 Load Forecast

    28. Questions?

    29. Appendices

    30. Detailed Assumptions

    31. Total Resources • New England Analysis • 1. Total Capacity: The capacity value is the Net ICR of 32,528 MW for 2011/12 calculated as ICR of 33,439 MW minus Hydro-Québec Interconnection Capability Credits (HQICCs) value of 911 MW • Load Zone Analysis • 1. Minimum Capacity Requirement from TSA: This capacity value is the minimum amount of resources that are necessary according to a Transmission Security Analysis (TSA) performed for each Load Zone • All values are rounded to the nearest 50 MW with the exception of CT & NEMASS/Boston • Maine Load Zone uses the MCL

    32. Total Resources (cont.) • Load Zone Generation • Amount of generation that is accounted for in each load zone for the purpose of the DR Op Cap analysis • Maximum adequacy requirement: Maximum Capacity Limit (MCL) • This value was used for Maine in the analysis due to export constraints • Minimum Generation Requirement from TSA • Amount of generation that is required in an area in order to secure the system for N-1-1 conditions • Was determined for each zone based on a TSA and consistently with PP-10 criteria • The Load Zone Results do not represent a simultaneous feasibility between load zones. Each Load Zone analysis is completed independently of the other

    33. Import Capacity • New England Analysis • 2. Net of Non-ICAP Purchases & Sales: value assumed is from the 2007 ICAP Transaction Summary monthly average for HQ Phase I/II used as a proxy for import capacity. The monthly average is assumed for all hours. • Load Zone Analysis • 2. Import Capability (N-1) (See Next Slide) • All values are rounded to the nearest 50 MW with the exception of CT & NEMASS/Boston

    34. Import Capability (cont.) • Import Capability for Load Zone Analysis • For zones that closely reflect electric boundaries defined in the Regional System Plan (RSP), RSP import limits were used • Connecticut and Northeast Massachusetts • For zones that do not closely reflect electric boundaries defined in the RSP, import limits were determined for the purpose of the DR Op Cap analysis only • Maine, New-Hampshire, Vermont, Rhode-Island, Southeast Massachusetts and Western and Central Massachusetts • These import limits were strictly based on thermal, N-1 constraints • All elements at 115kV and above were monitored • All single-element contingencies and multiple-element contingencies as described in OP-19 Section II.A.2 were considered • These import limits were determined using SIEMENS/PTI/MUST • MW from remote generation outside the zone were transferred to all generation inside the zone • Resulted in one standard number for each zone • No detailed sensitivities were performed to assess the range of all potential import limits • Studies represent all lines in conditions

    35. Demand Resources • New England & Load Zone Analyses • 3. Total Demand Resources: Three scenarios are used: Low DR, Intermediate DR and High DR clearing and are developed as • Low – 100% of Qualified Existing DR capacity for 2011/12 • Intermediate – 100% of Qualified Existing DR capacity and 50% of Qualified New DR capacity for 2011/12 • High – 100% of Qualified Existing DR capacity and 100% of Qualified New DR capacity for 2011/12 • The Total Demand Resources are the Qualified capacity values which is the Demand Reduction Value * Transmission & Distribution Gross-up (8%) * Reserve Margin Gross-up (16.1%) • Real-Time Emergency Generator DR are limited to the 600 MW amount that will be purchased to meet the ICR and Load Zones are prorated to sum to the New England value

    36. Total Demand Resources with Gross-ups & RTEG limited to 600 MW

    37. Total Capacity Without Demand Resources • New England Analysis • 4. Total Capacity Without Demand Resources : Total Capacity + Net of Non-ICAP Purchases & Sales – Total Demand Resources [1+2-3] • Load Zone Analysis • 4. Total Capacity Without Demand Resources : Minimum Capacity Requirement from TSA (or MCL for ME) + Import Capability (N-1) – Total Demand Resources [1+2-3]

    38. Assumed Generation Maintenance & Assumed Unplanned Outages • New England Analysis • 5. Assumed Generation Maintenance: monthly average of the weekly values from the 2008 Annual Maintenance Schedule (AMS) • 6. Assumed Unplanned Generation Outages: monthly average of the weekly Allowance for Unplanned Outages from the 2008 AMS Operable Capacity Analysis • Load Zone Analysis • 5. Assumed Generation Maintenance: prorated New England value based on the Capacity Requirement from TSA (or ME MCL)/New England Qualified Capacity • 6. Assumed Unplanned Generation Outages: prorated New England value based on Capacity Requirement from TSA (or ME MCL)/New England Qualified Capacity

    39. Hourly Forecasted 50-50 Peak Load • New England & Load Zone Analyses • 8. Forecasted 50-50 Peak Load: (Monthly peak shown in table) • The summer & winter peak loads are from the 2008 CELT 50-50 Forecast for 2011/2012   • An hourly profile is produced based on the 2002 load shapes for New England and for each of the Load Zones • 2002 was chosen because the summer period had several days in the range of the summer peak (represents typical summer weather) • Resulting 2011/12 monthly peaks may be different than the 2008 CELT forecast of monthly peaks because the they were developed using the 2002 load shape

    40. Generating Resources Available to Meet Load & OR • New England & Load Zone Analysis • 7. Gen Resources Available to Meet Load & OR = Total Capacity Without Demand Resources – Assumed Generation Maintenance – Assumed Unplanned Generation Outages [4-5-6]