Copenhagen Accord on Climate Change: Components and Positive Elements

1. The contents of the Copenhagen Accord on climate change Valentino Piana Rome, 23nd March 2010

2. Contents 1. The climate debate 2. The Copenhagen Accord: the components and the positive elements 3. Adaptation to climate change - the African NAPAs 4. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions 5. Finance 6. Next steps www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting

3. Sustainability 1. The climate debate Climate change Development World financial architecture Food security www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting

4. Mostly deve-loped coun-tries (e.g. EU, USA, Japan,…) Mostly developing countries 2. The Copenhagen Accord: the components The Accord is constituted by: 1. The list of countries that associate themselves with it 2. Twelve articles about * A shared vision of the future * Adaptation * Annex I countries commitments about reduction of greenhouse gases emissions * Non-Annex I countries Nationally appropriate mitigation actions * Deforestation and forest degradation actions * Incentives to low emitting economies * New and additional, predictable and adequated funding with improved access * A High Level Panel to study the sources of funds * The Copenhagen Green Climate Fund * A country-driven Technology Mechanism * The next steps, including the assessment of the implementation of the Accord 3. An appendix containing the commitments of Annex I countries 4. An appendix containing the mitigation actions by non-Annex I countries 5. A Registry of the mitigation actions seeking international support 107 until now, of which 28 African countries Below +2o Degrees www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting

5. 2. The Copenhagen Accord: the positive elements The Accord will test the effectiveness of an approach focused on immediate actions and verification of commitments, through alternative moves from all countries (bottom-up approach). It can fail and under-deliver but it is worth trying. In particular, CA is characterized by the following elements: 1. All major GHG emitting countries involved, generating specific pledges from 73 countries that together account for more than 80 per cent of global emissions from energy use 2. “Operational immediately” 3. 30 billion dollars committed by developed countries for the first three years (of which 2.4 billion euros committed by EU countries yearly 2010-2012) 4. A steep rising pathway of funding up to 100 US billions in 2020, where the sources will be studied by a High Level Panel (co-chairs and members already chosen) 5. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions by non-Annex I countries both unilateral and conditional on obtaining international support in terms of technology, funding and capacity-building (art. 5) 6. Technology Mechanism selected, linked to NAMAs (art. 11) 7. Annex I Kyoto Protocol parties “further strengthen” their commitments (art. 4) www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting

6. 3. Adaptation to climate change - the African NAPAs Art. 3 of the Copenhagen Accord: “Adaptation to the adverse effects of climate change and the potential impacts of response measures is a challenge faced by all countries. Enhanced action and international cooperation on adaptation is urgently required to ensure the implementation of the [UNFCCC] Convention by enabling and supporting the implementation of adaptation actions aimed at reducing vulnerability and building resilience in developing countries, especially in those that are particularly vulnerable, especially least developed countries, small island developing States and Africa. We agree that developed countries shall provide adequate, predictable and sustainable financial resources, technology and capacity-building to support the implementation of adaptation action in developing countries.” www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting

7. 3. Adaptation to climate change - the African NAPAs Well in advance to Copenhagen conference, most Least Developed Countries prepared programs for adaptation, the so-called National Adaptation Programmes of Actions. Their cumulative cost is about 1 .7 billion US dollars. 32 African countries have so far presented NAPAs, for a total of about 1.350 billion US dollars (about the 80% of the total). The Global Environmental Facility (GEF) required long procedures to access the funds as well as large co-financing. Until recently, GEF has disboursed only about 60 millions dollars. www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting

8. 4. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs): an overview NAMAs are schematic texts submitted to UNFCCC Secretariat by national focal points, to be collected in Appendix II of CA and in a special Registry (if looking for support). The 32 countries that have presented official NAMAs before 7th March 2010 have interpreted “Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions” in a wide range of ways: * carbon-neutrality declaration; * economy-wide commitments of reducing emissions in percentage with respect to a baseline of Business-as-Usual trajectory; * absolute reductions of CO2-eq emissions; * sectoral preferential directions of development; * specific goals and actions; * localized projects with specified technical parametres. www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting

9. 4. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs): an overview The geographical distribution of NAMAs www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting

10. 4. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs): an overview The sectoral distribution of NAMAs www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting

11. 4. NAMAs in national planning UNFCCC, MEF/G8/G20 Low-emission development strategy (art.2 CA) Climate Action Plans (BAP six pillars: Shared Vision, Mitigation, Adaptation, Technology, Finance, Capacity building), e.g. National Adaptation Strategy Local Adaptation Plans NAMAs NAPAs …. www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting

12. 4. The process of devising NAMAs and obtaining international support In the country International interface Abroad Analysis of existing and forthcoming laws and policies Existing funds Copenhagen Green Climate Fund Mitigation potential and international best practices Submission of NAMAs to UNFCCC Inter-governmental organizations Private investors Economic mechanisms of activation Detail design of measures Technology / Solution providers Research centres National stakeholders Matching mechanism, dynamics and events NGOs Local stakeholders Localisation and implementation www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting

13. 4. An evaluation of the existing NAMAs Positive features Negative features • Wide variety • Usually reflecting the national circumstances, existing laws and policies • Fairly aware of international best practices • Many sectors mentioned (e.g. energy, transport, building, agriculture, forestry, tourism,…) • Concise documents • Better than CDM as for broader transformational potential • Not clear the kind and features of the international support looked for • No economic mechanism of activation • Not mobilizing the private investors • No legal guarantees for investors • No appeal to research centres and NGOs • Unexplored connection with the Technology Mechanism • Often lacking CO2 reduction quantification • Always lacking estimated costs, thus also the cost per avoided ton of CO2eq • Transformational effects (e.g. green jobs, competitiveness, tax revenue,...) not expressed www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting

14. 5. Finance How much is raised 10 billions a year in 2010-2012 up to 100 billions in 2020 Who pays and by which source What to fund Balanced allocation between adaptation and mitigation (for the first 30 billions) High level panel will make a proposal How and who manage the funds Existing institutions + Copenhagen Green Climate Fund www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting

15. 6. Next steps G8/G20 in Toronto - launch of the Copenhagen Green Climate Fund? UNECA joint session with finance ministries in Malawi UNFCCC session in Sept/Oct ? G8/G20 in Korea (November) COP16 in Cancún (Mexico) High Level panel on finance - first meeting 29th March UNFCCC session on 9th-11th April (Bonn) UNFCCC session in May-June (Bonn) Further NAMAs and NAPAs submissions, updated communications, matching events Raising the international support of inter-governmental organizations, multilateral and bilateral donors, research centres, NGOs, etc. www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting