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S ustaining National Meteorological Services. Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Weather Service Riverdale , MD June 18, 2013. Everything you read, see or hear about weather, climate and ocean forecasts is based on NWP. Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III. Forecast.

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S ustaining National Meteorological Services


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    1. Sustaining National Meteorological Services Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Weather Service Riverdale, MD June 18, 2013

    2. Everything you read, see or hear about weather, climate and ocean forecasts is based on NWP

    3. Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III Forecast NOAA’s Model Production Suite • NOS – OFS • Great Lakes • Northern Gulf of Mex • Columbia R. • Bays • Chesapeake • Tampa • Delaware Climate Forecast System Hurricane GFDL HWRF Coupled GFSMOM4 NOAH Sea Ice Sea Nettle Forecast ~2B Obs/Day Satellites + Radar 99.9% Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT Regional NAM WRF NMMB Regional DA Global Forecast System Global Data Assimilation Severe Weather WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Space Weather North American Ensemble Forecast System Regional DA WRF: ARW, NMM NMMB Air Quality GFS, Canadian Global Model ENLIL NAM/CMAQ Rapid Refresh for Aviation 3 NOAH Land Surface Model

    4. Seamless Suite of NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Systems 4

    5. Distributing NWS Operational Model Data: NOMADS Capabilities • NOMADS – NOAA’s National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System • real-time and retrospective, format-independent access to climate and weather model data • A Unified Access Framework approach that engages data providers and users and has a high probability of demonstrable successes • Digital archive and real time data of NOAA’s operational weather models • Readily provides access to domestic and international users of NWS operational models on a “come and get it” basis.

    6. Major Challenges to NOMADS • Increasing model resolution will require larger NOMADS capabilities • Increasing number of users accessing model output from around the world will require more rapid response capabilities

    7. An Example of the Model Resolution Increase • Run NWS Global Forecast Systems at higher resolution out to 10 days • High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) • 3 kilometer resolution • Runs every hour • Ensembles: Higher Resolutions • Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (going from 55km to 21km) • Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) (going from 16 km to 12 km) • Hurricane Models (to be run at 3km) • Accelerate Storm Surge Modeling for NY, NJ, and New England