Extreme Geohazards Reducing Disasters Risk and Increasing Resilience

2. Extreme Geohazards Reducing Disasters Risk and Increasing Resilience Hans-Peter Plag, Mitigation and Adaptation Research Institute, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA, USA Supported by: Geohazards Community of Practice of the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) European Science Foundation (ESF) 2

3. Why Focus on Extreme (Geo)Hazards? Increasing disaster risk due to: - more exposure of a growing population; - reduced resilience due to interconnection, reduced redundancy, and dependence on just-in-time services - direct and indirect impacts (domino-effects) increase risk of a global catastrophe caused by extreme natural hazards. The problem: - extreme hazards occurred in the past; little exposure often limited the disaster - increased exposure leads to more frequent disasters - complexity of modern societies leads to more indirect, cascading effects - sustainability crisis reduces resilience Extreme Geohazards: - landslides - tsunamis - earthquakes - volcanic eruptions 3

4. Origin of the White Paper 1 Introduction2 Extreme Hazards and Global Disasters and Catastrophes3 What are extreme geohazards?4 How well do we know the upper end of the hazard spectrum?5 What are the Impacts of Extreme Geohazards? Earthquakes Volcanoes Comparison of geohazards and other natural hazards 6 Disaster Risk, Resilience, Antifragility, and Adaptive Capacity7 What are the Major Vulnerabilities and Risks?8 How can we Reduce Vulnerability and Risks?9 How can we Deal with the Uncertainties?10 Cost/Benefit Analysis of Planning for Extreme Geohazards11 How Should Society Confront Impacts of Extreme Geohazards?12 Societal and Governance Processes for Disaster Risk Reduction13 What is the Role of Science in Reducing Impacts of Extreme Geohazards? Research needs Monitoring and early warning What are the Consequences of the Current Scientific Dialog? 14 Conclusions Acronyms References Declaration on Extreme Geohazards and the Reduction of Disaster Risks Resulted in two main activities: - White Paper on Extreme Geohazards - Global Geohazards Information System for Disaster Risk Reduction (GGIS-DRR) 4

5. Terminology Extreme Events: • Extinction Level Events: more than a quarter of all life on Earth is killed and major species extinction takes place. • Global Catastrophes: more than a quarter of the world human population dies and that place civilization in serious risk. • Global Disasters: global-scale events in which a few percent of the population die. • Major Disasters: disasters exceeding $100 Billion in damage and/or causing more than 10,000 fatalities. Modified from Hempsell (2004) 5

6. Volcanic Eruptions

7. Volcanic Eruptions 100,000 40,000 30,000 25,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 4,000 3,500 3,400 1) Krakatau was similar to Santorini eruption, 1600 BC, although 4 times smaller Eyafjallajokull, 2010: VEI 4, 0.25 km3 Laki 1783-85: VEI 6, 14 km3 Several eruptions that happened during the last 2,000 years would be devastating under todays conditions

8. Extreme Hazards

9. Conclusion The largest volcano eruptions of the millennia (1 in 500 to 1000 years events): - today would threaten an already stressed food supply - challenge the crucial global transportation network - could easily lead to a global catastrophe. Chance of a major eruption (order VEI 7, 100 km3) in the 21st century: 10-20%: - severe implications for food security, public health, transportation, global economy. Steps towards risk reduction and increased resilience: (1) Risk assessment and risk awareness: - Frequent review of global risk knowledge with IPCC-like process (2) Early Warning (EW): - core element: elaborate, comprehensive volcano observing system; - cost-benefit analysis: should be willing to spend > $500 M/year; - GEO’s Geohazards Community of Practice is reviewing observation requirements (3) Response to Early Warning: - dedicate research to understand societal response to EWs on time scales of years - - also important for EWs of abrupt climate change impacts 16