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Gas and oil

Gas and oil

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Gas and oil

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  1. Gas and oil

  2. Gas and oil and problematic • Strategic resource ? • The purpose in geopolitics is to understand if countries with oil and gas have the status of power ? • Many countries in the north despite their status of power are under dependence • Power ? Dependence ?

  3. tools • Understanding geopolitics of oil requires an analysis of • Importations • Exportations • Management of flux (how trade is managed)

  4. New data : importations • Importations : more and more to Asian countries like India or China • Now US and Europe represent 55% of oil and gas importations • After the oil crisis in 1973 two factors • Oil and gas market became strategic market • The use of dollar raises monetary question • Huge demand • Few resources • Less investment

  5. Different structures

  6. Future of geopolitics • Analysis from James Kunstler “ The End of oil” • Europe faces issues with Saudi Arabia if a revolutionary regime is set up. • Strategy of limitations to Europe • Consequences: decline of Europe and raise of China or India.

  7. The end of oil ? • Risk of penury • Two politics for developed countries • Find an other source of energy • Close management of oil and gas resources For developing countries Need the help of developed countries even if this countries are dependent

  8. Three main poles

  9. Challenges of oil geopol • Three factors have to be taken in consideration • Offer : not that much • Demand : a lot especially in Asia • Investment • Today geopolitical challenges are different • Between 2001 and 2005 producer state face issues • War in Iraq • Terrorism in Arabia • Social issues in Venezuela • Political issues in Russia and Nigeria

  10. And risk • Risk in geopolitics because Iran owns 15% of gas reserve and 12% of oil reserve. • Second position after Arabia • Strategic position and role • But interested to get nuclear power because fears influence from US and Israel • Today 3,5 millions of barrels every day. • If production stops price increases to 80 $

  11. Weak Saudi Arabia • Instability from Arabia • Political regime gets weaker because of Islamic networks • 25% of oil resources in the world • If the production stops : general crisis

  12. New eras • Guinea gulf gets increased production • Estimations : 25% of total resources in the world • But face political tensions • High tensions in Venezuela • But agreement with Russia last week • New eras like Sudan and role of China here.

  13. Strategy of MNCs ? • International companies in a phase with the state policy ? • International companies don’t control all resources • Most of the time it depends on the State’s policy (Algeria, Libya) • Exxon • Shell • BP Amoco • Total • Role in geopolitics ex: Total in Guinea and reaction from US and China

  14. Gas • Role of Russia : political utilization ? • South stream • Nabucco and Putine’s strategy last week • Strategy about Nabucco • Avoiding Russia but disagreement in EU. Germany Italy France versus Bulgaria Rumania, Turkey