Gas and oil and problematic • Strategic resource ? • The purpose in geopolitics is to understand if countries with oil and gas have the status of power ? • Many countries in the north despite their status of power are under dependence • Power ? Dependence ?
tools • Understanding geopolitics of oil requires an analysis of • Importations • Exportations • Management of flux (how trade is managed)
New data : importations • Importations : more and more to Asian countries like India or China • Now US and Europe represent 55% of oil and gas importations • After the oil crisis in 1973 two factors • Oil and gas market became strategic market • The use of dollar raises monetary question • Huge demand • Few resources • Less investment
Future of geopolitics • Analysis from James Kunstler “ The End of oil” • Europe faces issues with Saudi Arabia if a revolutionary regime is set up. • Strategy of limitations to Europe • Consequences: decline of Europe and raise of China or India.
The end of oil ? • Risk of penury • Two politics for developed countries • Find an other source of energy • Close management of oil and gas resources For developing countries Need the help of developed countries even if this countries are dependent
Challenges of oil geopol • Three factors have to be taken in consideration • Offer : not that much • Demand : a lot especially in Asia • Investment • Today geopolitical challenges are different • Between 2001 and 2005 producer state face issues • War in Iraq • Terrorism in Arabia • Social issues in Venezuela • Political issues in Russia and Nigeria
And risk • Risk in geopolitics because Iran owns 15% of gas reserve and 12% of oil reserve. • Second position after Arabia • Strategic position and role • But interested to get nuclear power because fears influence from US and Israel • Today 3,5 millions of barrels every day. • If production stops price increases to 80 $
Weak Saudi Arabia • Instability from Arabia • Political regime gets weaker because of Islamic networks • 25% of oil resources in the world • If the production stops : general crisis
New eras • Guinea gulf gets increased production • Estimations : 25% of total resources in the world • But face political tensions • High tensions in Venezuela • But agreement with Russia last week • New eras like Sudan and role of China here.
Strategy of MNCs ? • International companies in a phase with the state policy ? • International companies don’t control all resources • Most of the time it depends on the State’s policy (Algeria, Libya) • Exxon • Shell • BP Amoco • Total • Role in geopolitics ex: Total in Guinea and reaction from US and China
Gas • Role of Russia : political utilization ? • South stream • Nabucco and Putine’s strategy last week • Strategy about Nabucco • Avoiding Russia but disagreement in EU. Germany Italy France versus Bulgaria Rumania, Turkey