ADVANCES AND TRENDS IN EARLY WARNING DEVELOPMENT

1. ADVANCES AND TRENDS IN EARLY WARNING DEVELOPMENT RREGIONAL ADVANCES AND TRENDS A. Africa region ·sub-regional food security, climate, flood, drought early warning systems ·disaster management platforms in several countries; ·comprehensive disaster reduction strategies (e.g. NEPAD) B. Asia region ·hazard forecasting capacity and capability ·access to warning information ·use of hazard mapping in risk assessment rerevising hydrometeorological warning systems ·

2. C. American Hemisphere • ·floods and various windstorms systems most advanced • ·varied methodologies and configurations of stakeholders • ·landslide, earthquakes, climate change and El Nino warning systems least developed • ·satellite-based systems extended to forest fire systems • D. Europe region • ·provision and accuracy of warnings; hazard prediction • ·practice of flood early warning • ·climate change research • ·internet for warning information and communication • ·satellite communication system for natural hazards

3. EXAMPLES OF HAZARD-SPECIFIC ADVANCES AND TRENDS • A Flood • ·forecasted rainfall and run-off models not good enough • ·improvement of predictability of forecasts • ·social marketing approach to public awareness and preparedness • ·basic infrastructure for flood forecasting in developing countries • B Drought • ·no fully operational drought early warning systems exist • ·slow progress in developing drought monitoring capabilities • ·about 60 UNCCD National Action Programmes (NAPs)

4. C Geological hazards • ·progress in developing seismic hazard assessment • ·no reliable system exists for earthquakes/volcano eruptions • ·emphasizing mitigation and preparedness measures • D Climate • ·understanding and predict climate change and variability causes • ·climate warning systems: part of integrated adaptation strategies

5. THEMATIC ADVANCES AND TRENDS • ·increasing vulnerability to disasters • ·longer lead times • ·more use of seasonal forecasting • ·application of information communication technologies… • ·…is creating some communication and response problems • ·growing focus on institutionalizing early warning • ·balancing enforcement with self consent • ·less focus on details of warning messages • ·rising public expectations regarding warning services • · regionalism and early warning development

6. OBSTACLES: CONSTRAINTS, GAPS, WEAKNESSES • A. Common constraints • · weak national focus on warning • · inadequate resource, especially at local level • · persistence of disaster response outlook • · unclear definitions of concepts, procedures, responsibilities • · inadequate user orientation of early warning systems • ·inadequate land use planning • ·weak trans-boundary and international cooperation

7. B Developing countries • ·low financial resources and technical expertise • ·deteriorating state of monitoring infrastructure • ·weak communication sub-systems • · low application of early warning in response activities • · inadequate warning coverage of localized and other threats • ·weak governance, institutional factors & political commitment • ·inadequate external support

8. C. Developed countries • ·inadequate identification and attention to residual risk • ·determination of acceptable public risk • ·weak legal foundation in common law countries • ·insufficient reliability of longer term flood forecasting • · low outcomes of warning services & community engagement • ·inadequate monitoring and measurement of success

9. LESSONS AND POINTERS • A Common global lessons •  · warning is a component of risk management • · effective warning requires sound basic infrastructure… • · …but not necessarily a lot of money or technology • · early warning systems need to be well managed • · good preparedness is essential for effective warning • · participation/partnerships/community involvement are crucial • · sound communication is critical for effective warning • · pre-event education makes warning response effective • · warning systems must be based on continuous learning • regionalism is essential for developing warning systems

10. B. Lessons peculiar to developing countries • ·multi-purpose monitoring is required for vulnerability warning • ·  the scope of warning systems needs to cover other hazards • · drought and desertification monitoring is a long-term process • ·  formal systems must integrate traditional indicators/languages • · early warning of conflicts are often pointers to natural disasters • · assured funding is crucial for sustainability of warning systems • new approaches to capacity development are needed

11. INTEGRATING EARLY WARNING INTO PUBLIC POLICY: MAJOR NEEDS • A. Developing countries • ·establishing and enforcing guidelines/operating procedures • ·developing institutional capacity of early warning bodies • ·streamlining mandates of various warning institutions • ·adopting the participatory and decentralized approach • ·expanding data and information sharing between different levels • ·creating public awareness on early warning • ·improving monitoring of early warning systems • ·increasing budgetary support for early warning development

12. B.           Developed countries • ·    improving warning database, including technologies • ·    targeting warnings at specific at-risk groups • ·strengthening information exchanges • ·clearly identifying functions and responsibilities • ·developing risk assessment and management skills • ·maintaining community awareness and response • ·addressing emerging issues (e.g. privatization, climate change)

13. INTEGRATING EARLY WARNING INTO PUBLIC POLICY: PRIORITY RECOMMENDATION • A. Common recommendations • 1. Support integration of disaster risk management, including early warning, into development processes and policies: • ·harmonize early warning concepts, terminologies and data • ·complement non-structural and structural measures • ·facilitate public/private partnerships • ·motivate strong long-term political commitment • ·show cost-benefit and positive results of early warning

14. 2. Support capacity development, particularly in developing countries: • ·train people involved in early warning and risk management • ·provide of equipment needs • ·strengthen early warning data and information systems • 3. Develop people-centered warning systems: • ·develop community-based early warning systems • ·improve public awareness

15. 4. Improve data collection and availability: • ·modernize and expand hazard monitoring infrastructure • ·exchanging information • 5. Implement Conference recommendations through a UN/ISDR-coordinated international early warning platform and programme

16. B. Recommendations for developing countries • 1. Develop warning systems for additional or emerging hazards • 2. Maintain and strengthen international collaboration • 3. Develop regional disaster reduction institutions • C. Recommendations for developed countries • 1. De-emphasise regulatory approaches and enforcement • 2. Create standards for new technologies & warning dissemination • 3. Be more aware of implications of privatization for early warning