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Early Warning Systems

Early Warning Systems. Tuesday, October 30, 2012 Bill Hurwitch, Maine Department of Education Rob Curtin, Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education. Today We’re Going to Discuss …. Maine’s Early Warning System Massachusetts’s Early Warning System

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Early Warning Systems

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  1. Early Warning Systems • Tuesday, October 30, 2012 • Bill Hurwitch, Maine Department of Education • Rob Curtin, Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education

  2. Today We’re Going to Discuss … Maine’s Early Warning System Massachusetts’s Early Warning System Digging Deeper: Which approach is most like yours? Report Out: What are your questions? And what have you learned?

  3. Maine’s • Early Warning System

  4. Maine’s Early Warning System SLDS data warehouse module that educators use to identify, address and manage a problem, opportunity or strategy. • Uses data to identify students at risk • Allows educators to create, assign and manage programs and interventions for at-risk students and track student progress • Provides reports and data for analysis of model results and best practices as well as analysis to improve the model and programming • Planned uses include: kindergarten readiness, RTI, high school dropout early warning, college readiness indicator

  5. Maine’s Early Warning System

  6. Maine’s College Readiness Model Identifies high school students at risk of needing postsecondary remedial or developmental courses Reduces need for remedial or developmental courses in college by delivering courses in high school Reduces need for students to pay for a non-credit college courses Indicates to students not considering postsecondary education that they may be college ready Provides feedback on readiness and success to schools

  7. Maine’s College Readiness Indicators* SAT Participation Rates SAT Scores/State Assessment Results High School GPA Completion of Algebra II Attendance Completion of FAFSA Completion of 4 Years of Mathematics Course Completion/Scores in Dual Enrollment/Early College, Advanced Placement and International Baccalaureate * New England Secondary School Consortium (CT/ME/NH/RI/VT)

  8. Things to Consider Validate early warning system measures and weights with qualified research – test with historical data Limit data to relevant indicators and measures – just because you collect it you do not have to use it Provide the ability for educators to input and track school level data, programs and interventions Establish processes to measure student progress and the effectiveness of programs and interventions Establish security model for access to student-level data – staff responsible for indicators and interventions may require separate roles

  9. Massachusetts’s • Early Warning System

  10. Massachusetts’s Early Warning System • Massachusetts EWIS is for grade levels 1-12 • Based on four grade-level groupings that are connected to level-appropriate academic goals along the academic trajectory that are designed to be relevant to and actionable for educators • Risk models were designed and validated using longitudinal data • Only includes data from existing statewide collections (SIMS and SCS) and state assessments (MCAS and MEPA)

  11. Massachusetts’s Early Warning System Provides risk level information for all students based on prior year data Three risk levels: low, moderate, high • A student that is “low risk” is predicted to be likely to meet the academic goal The risk levels are not based on a student’s relative likelihood for reaching an academic goal when compared with other students Optional tool for Massachusetts educators Individual indicators in the risk model are not reflective of the level of risk - taken together, the indicators (data points) collectively form a risk level

  12. Massachusetts’s Early Warning System

  13. Massachusetts’s Early Warning System Early warning systems cannot predict with 100% accuracy whether or not students will meet academic milestones Using historical data to test the model: • 81-97% of low risk students met the goal • 51-67% of moderate risk students met the goal • 12-32% of high risk students met the goal Predictive power of the EWIS risk models rely heavily on the accuracy of the data reported to the Department (SCS data quality a particular concern)

  14. Massachusetts’s Early Warning System

  15. Round Table Discussion • Digging Deeper • Which Approach • is Most Like Yours?

  16. Report Out: • What Are Your Questions? • What Have You Learned?

  17. Contacts & Additional Resources Contact information: Bill Hurwitch, Bill.Hurwitch@maine.gov Rob Curtin, rcurtin@doe.mass.edu Missy Cochenour, missy.cochenour@sst-slds.org For more information on Early Warning Systems: SLDS Spotlight: Development and Use of Early Warning Systems: http://nces.ed.gov/programs/slds/pdf/Early_Warning_Systems_FINAL.pdf SLDS Webinar Presentation: Early Warning Systems:http://nces.ed.gov/programs/slds/webinars.asp

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