WP20500Early Warning Bhupendra Jasani Department of War Studies - King’s College London – UK Valerio Tramutoli Department of Physics and Engineering of the Environment University of Basilicata – Potenza - IT
WP20500 Early Warning Objectives: to test the ability of different techniques for providing early indications of security events that might pose a risk to civilian populations.
Invasion of Kuwait by Iraq: detecting troup and tanks movements SPOT image over Iraq on the northern border of Kuwait. artillery position and possible tank area.
Invasion of Kuwait by Iraq: detecting oil spill due to pipeline sabotage Oil spill NOAA_AVHRR Channel 4 (10.5-11.3 mm) January 24, 1991 h10 GMT
OIL FIRE OIL SMOKE Iraq crisis: oil pipeline sabotages (July 4, 2004) MSG-SEVIRI: Channel 4 (3.9 mm) July 4, 2004 h 12:00 GMT
EGYPT: Hotel Hilton’s explosion in Taba (October 7, 2004) October 7th 2004, 19:00 GMT SEVIRI channel: 3.9 m just before explosion Red Sea October 7th 2004, 19:15 GMT SEVIRI channel: 3.9 m after explosion Taba Red Sea
Since 13:15 GMT: AFTER THE PIPELINE SABOTAGE. SEVIRI images allow us to monitor the oil fire and the growing smoke cloud 12:45 GMT:SHORTLY BEFORE THE PIPELINE SABOTAGE (22nd June 2005, Lat=35° 4’ 48’’ N, Long=43° 32’ 23’’E) 13:45 GMT 13:30 GMT 13:15 GMT MSG-SEVIRI - Channel 3.9 mm 22-06-2005 MSG-SEVIRI - Ch 3.9 mm MAP OF KNOWN OIL PIPELINE Oil fire Smoke oil 14:00 GMT 14:15 GMT 14:30 GMT ©Eumetsat 2005 From: http://www.iags.org/iraqpipelinewatch.htm ©Eumetsat 2005 13:00 GMT: IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE PIPELINE SABOTAGE. Oil fire ( ) along a known pipeline is clearly visible over SEVIRI image. Oil fire ©Eumetsat 2005 IRAQ: oil pipeline blast (June 22, 2005)
Research achivements suitable for integrationRobust (Change Detection) Satellite Techniques • short scale changes(in the space and/or in time) • volcanic eruptions (Ann.of Geoph.,2001,2004, Remote Sens. of Env., 2004a, 2004b) • forest fires detection(Int. J. of Rem. Sens, 2001) • oil spill monitoring(IWA, 2003, RSE-sub. 2005) • cloud-detection (Atmosph. Research., 2004) • medium, long scale,changes(in space and/or time) • air and water quality and pollution monitoring (e.g. IRS, 2001) • flood mapping and Soil Wetness Variation monitoring ( IRS, 2001, RSE 2005) • seismic area monitoring(Ann. Geoph.,2001, 2004, Phy. Chem.Earth, 2004, RSE 2005) • etc…...
3(x,y,t) >3 Voltri(Ge) Erli Voltri (Ge) Casanova Lerrone Carpasio Seborga Erli N Casanova Lerrone Carpasio N MISSED FIRES Seborga fire started in the afternoon hours after NOAA-AVHRR pass Robust Satellite Techniques (reliability) Fire Detection RST (AVHRR at 1:00 GMT) EOS-MODIS (MOD14-algorithm) North-Italy WINTER (17 Feb 2005 24 h) NO MISSED NO FALSE FIRES
Fires detected AVHRR – 5th july 2000 15:00 GMT (South Italy) Mar Ionio Actual fires FALSE ALARMS Mar Ionio NO FALSE ALARMS 3(x,y,t) >5 RST Mar Ionio Kennedy et al.(1993) Kaufman et al. (1990) Mar Ionio Flasse &Ceccato (1996)
3(x,y,t) >3 3(x,y,t) >4 3(x,y,t) >5 Fires detected AVHRR – 5th july 2000 15:00 GMT (South Italy) Mar Ionio Mar Ionio Actual fires FALSE ALARMS RST tunability: Thermal structure description 3(x,y,t) >5 Mar Ionio Kennedy et al.(1993) Kaufman et al. (1990) Mar Ionio RST Flasse &Ceccato (1996)
Robust Satellite Techniques (reliability & tunability)Lava flow Monitoring (July-August, 2001 Etna flank eruption, NOAA-AVHRR) Cratere di N.E. Voragine Valle del Leone Bocca Nuova Rifugio Sapienza Zafferana Montagnola Valle del Bove SP 92 Nicolosi Alice>3 Alice >2 Lava flow crossing SP92 road July 19 2001 July-August 2001 lava flows reports
Robust Satellite Techniques (sensitivity & reliability)Pre-eruptive thermal anomalies (July-August, 2001 Etna flank eruption) July 13 2001 (i.e. 4 days before the major lava vent opening at 2700 m) Cratere di N.E. Voragine Valle del Leone Bocca Nuova Zafferana Montagnola Valle del Bove Rifugio Sapienza SP 92 Nicolosi Alice >3 Alice >2 July-August 2001 lava flows reports
S/N Etna (Italy): 2004-2005 eruption MSG-SEVIRI February 15 2005 h 01:00 GMT Channel 4 (3.9 mm) 7 2
RST Cross, 1991, T4 > 289.8 K > 5 oil spill pipeline oil spill oil spill FALSE ALARMS FALSE ALARMS sea land 1991- 01- 24 (channel 4 AVHRR - 10.38 GMT) 1991- 01- 24 (channel 4 AVHRR - 10.38 GMT) Robust Satellite Techniques (reliability) Oil Spill Detection (NOAA-AVHRR) 23 - 30 January 1991 (Gulf War): release of crude oil on Kuwait and Saudi Arabia coast
Flooded Ungary flood April 2002 RST on NOAA-AVHRR 23 April 2000 13:00 GMT
Research achivements suitable for integrationRobust (Change Detection) Satellite Techniques RST approach demonstrated to be robustagainst false alarms effective even in adverse observational conditions sensitivetoward very low (absolute) signal variations automaticnot requiring supervision adjustable for event detail description exportable directly on different geographic areas and different satellite platforms
INTEGRATION • The results so far are encouraging • There is a number of WP with which integration can be intensified: • Treaty monitoring • Change detection • Facility signatures • Infrastructure monitoring • Border monitoring • Security concept • Population Monitoring