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North Atlantic Oscillation: the non-linear aspect and its long-range prediction

North Atlantic Oscillation: the non-linear aspect and its long-range prediction. Wilbur Y. Chen Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA. * Precursors? Where? * Non-linear nature of precursors & NAVs * Circulation Regime matching approach (a framework for long-range prediction?)

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North Atlantic Oscillation: the non-linear aspect and its long-range prediction

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  1. North Atlantic Oscillation:the non-linear aspect andits long-range prediction Wilbur Y. Chen Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA

  2. * Precursors? Where? * Non-linear nature of precursors & NAVs * Circulation Regime matching approach (a framework for long-range prediction?) * Varying predictability within NAV (while invariant for NAO) * Prediction skill scores

  3. NAO Index Correlation with NAO Index

  4. NAO Index lags NAO Index leads • Season • Seasons • Seasons • 4 Seasons • Season • Seasons • Seasons • Seasons 1

  5. One-year lead precursor results in NAO SON -> DJF JJA -> DJF MAM -> DJF

  6. # 1 # 2 Composites 1-yr later Most likely clusters # 3 # 4

  7. DJF 91  DJF 92 Verification for DJF 92 Given DJF 91 AC = 0.83 leads Cluster of Analogues in DJFs Forecast for DJF 92

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