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Impact of UKIP on Conservative Party: A Study on Working Class Tories

This research analyzes the effect of UKIP on the Conservative Party and explores how UKIP's rise impacts traditionalist voters. The study uses extensive data from various sources to examine how UKIP influences the political landscape in the UK, particularly affecting the Conservative party and possibly influencing left-wing parties as well.

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Impact of UKIP on Conservative Party: A Study on Working Class Tories

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  1. Working Class Tories not Labour Traditionalists: why UKIP is damaging the Conservatives Eric Kaufmann e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk Twitter: @epkaufm

  2. Data • Understanding Society (UKHLS) – 3 waves of 40,000 people, 2009-12. • 1,188 UKIP supporters or voters • Lower sample, but concentrated 2009-onward • Longitudinal • LA and ward census data appended • Local Election Data, 2010-12 • UKIP results in 1006 electoral wards of 2940 • Ward and LA census data appended

  3. …. • British Election Study Internet Panel 2015, Wave 1– Feb-March 2014; Wave 2 May-June 2014 (Fieldhouse et. al) • 35,000 sample size • LA is lowest geographic identifier • Panel study, with second wave to come • LA level electoral data appended

  4. Method: Logistic, clustered on LA; also multilevel

  5. Source: Local Election Data 2010-12 (Plymouth Elections Centre)

  6. DV: Labour-Tory vote ratio UKIP-Tory vote ratio UKIP-Labour vote ratio

  7. UKIP harms Tories….but also hurts the Left? • UKIP damaging Tories, but: • Right-wing parties gain in combined share over time as UKIP share rises • Canadian example ??

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