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Energy Security Masterplan – Phase 2. Presentation to the Parliamentary Portfolio Committee on Minerals and Energy 18 June 2008. Introduction - Energy Masterplan. Cabinet approved Phase 1 of the Energy Masterplan Phase 1 Energy Security framework Energy planning approach

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energy security masterplan phase 2

Energy Security Masterplan – Phase 2

Presentation to the Parliamentary Portfolio Committee on Minerals and Energy

18 June 2008

introduction energy masterplan
Introduction - Energy Masterplan
  • Cabinet approved Phase 1 of the Energy Masterplan
  • Phase 1
    • Energy Security framework
    • Energy planning approach
    • Liquid fuels short to medium plan
  • Phase 2
    • Electricity industry short, medium and long term plan
    • Integration areas between electricity and liquid fuels industries
introduction masterplan phase1
Introduction – Masterplan (Phase1)
  • The Masterplan seeks to:
    • achieve goals that have been set for the sector
    • Address current challenges
    • set security of supply standards
    • Set appropriate reserve margin
    • Incorporate climate change challenges
presentation outline
Presentation Outline
  • Energy security framework
    • World electricity
    • RSA electricity
  • Development of the masterplan
    • Goals
    • Situational analysis
    • Demand forecast
    • Decision making
    • Interventions
    • Implementation matrix
    • Recommendations
slide5

World Electricity Generation: Primary Energy Mix 2005

Source: World Nuclear Association, 2007.

slide8

South Africa:

Electricity Demand Profile Shape (National Electricity Grid)

Source: Eskom Holdings Limited Annual Report 2007

slide9

Security of Supply:

Eskom Weekly Peak Demand (2006 vs. 2007)

slide10

Definition: Generation Reserve Margin

  • The installed capacity of a power system must exceed the expected demand to allow for:
    • Generator breakdowns (forced outages)
    • Planned maintenance.
    • Load forecast uncertainty.
    • Security across the whole system, taking into account location of plant, location of load and regional transmission capacity.
  • The reserve margin is the amount of reserve capacity, expressed as a percentage of the annual peak load.
    • Example: If peak load = 40 000 MW and installed capacity = 44 000 MW, the reserve margin = 10%.
  • Smaller reserve margin increases the risk of supply interruption. Too large a margin results in unnecessary investment expenditure. Security vs. Cost.
slide11

South Africa (National Electricity Grid):

Capacity and Maximum Demand at Winter Peak (1996 – 2006)

Source: Eskom Holdings Limited Annual Report 2007

overview of masterplan
Overview of masterplan
  • Sets goals for the sector
  • Sets key assumptions
    • Demand projections
    • Economic outlook
  • Formulated based on
    • White Paper on Energy
    • Regulatory policy framework
goals
Goals
  • Supporting economic growth and development
  • Improving the reliability of electricity infrastructure
  • Providing a reasonable priced electricity supply
  • Ensuring the security of supply as set by the security of supply standards
  • Diversifying primary energy sources
  • Increasing access to energy services
  • Meeting renewable energy targets as set in the White Paper
process followed
Process followed
  • Generation
    • Adoption of a security standard for electricity supply
    • Appropriate investment level
    • Reserve margin
  • Transmission
    • Removal of transmission constraints WC, EC, KZN
  • Distribution infrastructure
    • Universal access
    • Bulk infrastructure
process followed1
Process followed
  • Acceleration of DSM and energy efficiency
planning assumptions
Planning assumptions
  • Detailed studies to be undertaken
  • Integration opportunities of electricity and primary energy sources
  • Nuclear energy is not considered
  • Imported electricity is not included
  • Assumed economic forecast
  • Consideration of driving forces and supply chain challenges
decision making considerations
Decision making considerations
  • Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA)
  • Site selection
  • Climate change
  • Renewable energy
  • Funding and resourcing
  • Skills management and development
  • Research and Technology
  • 2010 FIFA World Cup
slide19

South Africa: Electricity Demand/Capacity Forecast

(4% Growth Rate related to 6% AsgiSA GDP Growth Rate)

Source: Eskom

in summary
In summary…
  • In the short-term
    • Demand side management
    • Peaking plants
    • Cogeneration projects.
  • In the medium to long-term
    • Mix of base load and peaking plants
    • Demand side management
    • Appropriate reserve margin
slide23

South Africa:

Electricity Demand Profile Shape (National Electricity Grid)

Source: Eskom Holdings Limited Annual Report 2007

energy use by the residential sector
Energy use by the residential sector

Source: Energy outlook for South Africa - 2002

households of south africa 2001 main energy source for cooking by region
Households of South Africa - 2001Main Energy Source for Cooking by Region

Source: Stats SA - Census 2001

households of south africa 2001 main energy source for heating by region
Households of South Africa - 2001Main Energy Source for Heating by Region

Source: Stats SA - Census 2001

facts on domestic consumption
Facts on domestic consumption
  • Geyser – 4 kW
  • 10 million households of electricity
  • 2.5 million households own an electric geysers
  • This is equivalent to 10 000 MW (at peak)
planned interventions
Planned Interventions
  • Short term
    • Demand side management
    • Energy efficiency
    • Fuel switching
    • Metering
planned interventions cont
Planned interventions cont./
  • Medium term
    • Generation
      • Cogeneration
      • Capacity expansion plan programme
      • Additional peaking power plants
    • Transmission
      • Expansion plans
      • Total system capacity and reliability plan
intervention plans cont
Intervention plans cont./
  • Medium term cont./
  • Distribution
    • Maintenance and refurbishment
    • Expansion of distribution network
    • Electrification of households
    • Restructuring of the distribution sector
summary of recommendations of phase 2 masterplan
Summary of recommendations of phase 2 Masterplan
  • Reserve margin – 19%
  • Performance standard
    • “1 day in 10 years”
    • N – 1 transmission contingency
    • Regulation of the investment in maintenance and rehabilitation of infrastructure
    • Regulation of the quality of supply of electricity
summary of recommendations
Summary of recommendations
  • Cabinet also noted:
    • Electricity price path, to finance the implementation of this plan;
    • Import/export of electricity;
    • Cogeneration, DSM and other energy efficiency measures;
    • Leveraging private sector participation (IPPs) in generation;
    • Supply of gas for primary energy diversification;
    • Attraction of energy intensive investments as a strategy for development
consultation
Consultation
  • NERSA
  • Eskom
  • Municipalities
  • Organised labour
  • Organised business