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111005 ICFA seminar @CERN. On-going & Near Future for q 13. Takashi Kobayashi KEK. Contents. Introduction T2K results and near future prospect MINOS results Global fit Near future prospect in the world Implication of large q 13 on future Summary. n e. n m. n t.

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On going near future for q 13

111005

ICFA seminar

@CERN

On-going & Near Future for q13

Takashi Kobayashi

KEK


Contents
Contents

  • Introduction

  • T2K results and near future prospect

  • MINOS results

  • Global fit

  • Near future prospect in the world

  • Implication of large q13 on future

  • Summary


3 flavor mixing of neutrinos

ne

nm

nt

3 flavor mixing of neutrinos

Flavor eigenstates

Mass eigenstates

m1

m2

m3

Pontecorvo-Maki-Nakagawa-Sakata Matrix (CKM matrix in lepton sector)

Atm/Acc

Acc/Reactor

Sol/Reactor

6 independent parameters govern oscillation

q12, q23, q13, d

Dm122, Dm232, Dm132

Dmij=mi2-mj2

3


Present knowledge before june 2011
Present knowledge (before June, 2011)

ne??

Sol/Reactor

n3

Atm/Acc

n2

OR

n1

dunkown

Which??

Big diff from KM matrix


Why q 13 so important n m n e appearance and cpv
Why q13 so important?nmne appearance and CPV

CPV

Sol term

CPV effect

Unknown!

(sinq12~0.5, sinq23~0.7, sinq13<0.2)

The size of q13 decides future direction!

5


Brief history and present situation
Brief history and present situation

  • In 1998, evidence of nm  nx (disappearance) discovered SK in atmn observation

  • In 1999, as a next critical step toward CPV search, importance of nmne appearance search pointed out (K.Nishikawa&Y.Totsuka)

  • In 2001, LoI of T2K

  • After 10yrs of hard work worldwide for various experiments to discover non-zero q13, now we are getting into “harvest” season

  • Final conclusion on q13 will come very soon (hopefully)


Searches for non zero q 13
Searches for non-zero q13

By using reactor neutrino

  • :<E> ~ a few MeV edisappearance

  • P(ee) = 1- sin2213・sin2(1.27m231L/E) + O(m221/m231)

  •  Almost pure measurement of q13.

  • Small deficit signal  systematics dominated

By using accelerator neutrino

  • nm:<E> ~ O(GeV)  neappearance

  • P(me) = sin2q23・sin2213・sin2(1.27m231L/E) + many terms(incl. d)

  •  Appearance measurement of q13.

  •  Statistics limited

T2K (2009~), NOvA (2014~)

Double Chooz(2011~), RENO(2011~), Daya Bay(2012~)

7


Tokai to kamioka t2k long baseline neutrino oscillation experiment
Tokai-to-Kamioka (T2K) long baseline neutrino oscillation experiment

  • Intense off-axis (2.5deg) nm beam from J-PARC MR tuned at osc. max.

  • Reached 145kW (~0.9x1014ppt)

  • Data taking Jan. 2010 ~ Mar.11, 2011

  • All data (1.43e20POT) analyzed

1.43e20pot accumulated

(Jan2010~Mar2011)

8


T2k analysis results

PRL 107, 041801 (2011)

T2K analysis results

One of most critical selection criterion validated by Atm-nelike data &Atm-ndata+MC hybrid control sample

  • All data analysed

  • Event selection

    • Signal Efficiency = 66%

    • Background Rejection:

      • 77% for beam νe

      • 99% for NC

  • 6 candidate events remain

  • 1.5±0.3 BG expected

  • Probability to observe >=6 evts w/ sin22q13=0: 0.7%

  • 2.5 s excess observed


T2k allowed regions

PRL 107, 041801 (2011)

T2K allowed regions

Chooz 90%CL

upper bound

@dCP=0


T2k j parc status and plan
T2K&J-PARC status and plan

  • J-PARC has not been operated since Mar. 11, 2011

  • Intensive recovery works are on-going

  • We will resume J-PARC operation in Dec. 2011

    • First, LINAC will start operation on Dec. 12, 2011

  • We plan to have >2 “cycle”(~month) beam for users within JFY2011 (by the end of Mar,2012)

  • In FY2012 (Apr.2012-Mar.2013) J-PARC plan to operate fully (~9month) (budget requested)

  • LINAC energy recovery from 181MeV to 400MeV originally scheduled in 2012 was delayed to start July 2013

    • User’s needs to take longer beam after long shutdown by the earthquake

    • Delay of preparation caused by earthquake


Prospect of beam power
Prospect of beam power

  • Highest priority is to establish non-zero q13 and precise measurement of q13 as soon as possible

  • T2K is still very much statistically limited (only 2% of approved POT has been taken)

  • Accelerator power improvement is CRITICAL (At present 145kW)

    • Short term

      • Replacement of inj. Kicker before next beam

      • Addition of RF (planned) for higher rep&ppb

      • Higher capacity for beam loss (collimator)

      • Tuning of present MR power supply for higher rep rate (3.042.6  more)

      • High power beam study

    • Longer term (few yrs) toward design intensity and beyond

      • R&D of high gradient RF core

      • R&D of high rep rate MR power supply (~1Hz or more)


T2k sensitivities and milestones
T2K sensitivities and milestones

  • We have : 0.07[MWx107s] = 0.143e21 pot

    We aim to have

  • By Summer 2013: ~0.5[MWx107s] ~ 1e21pot

    • Conclude non-zero q13

    • >5sigma for present T2K central value

  • Within a few yrs : ~ 1[MWx107s] ~ 2e21pot

    • > 3sigma for sin22q13 > 0.04

  • Approved goal : 3.75[MWx107s] ~ 8e21pot

    • > 3sigma for sin22q13 >~ 0.02


Minos 1 st gen exp
MINOS (1st gen. exp.)

FNAL 120GeV Main Injector  Soudan mine (735km)

Horn-focused wide band nm beam

(magnetized)Iron-scintillator sampling calorimeter

5,400tons @ far, 980tons @ near

Taking data >6yrs

8.2e20pot data w/ neutrino run is used for ne appearance search

Far detector



A global fitting

Exclude q13=0 at more than 3s level

Best fit : sin2q13=0.021  sin22q13 = 0.084

Most urgent & important task: EXPERIMENTALLY DEFINITELY conclude

A global fitting

G.L.Fogli, et.al, arXiv:1106.6028v1 [hep-ph]


Near future prospects in the world
Near future prospects in the world

  • 1st gen LBL experiment

    • OPERA

      • Expected (6.6E19POT)

        • Beam ne: 48.5

        • NC : 5.2

        • Signal : 5.2 (sin22q13=0.1)

        • (No kinematical cut)

      • Results expected in 2012

  • q13 optimized experiments

    • Reactor experiments

    • NOvA


Reno experiment

16.1GW reactor & 2x16ton detectors (1.4km)

Started data taking with both near & far detectors from Aug. 1, 2011.

First results on sin2(2q13) ~0.5 are expected to be available within a half year.

sin2(2q13) > 0.02 at 90% within ~3yrs

RENO experiment

FD

ND

T2K center

Fogli Global fit center

Co


Double chooz
Double Chooz

  • 8.2GW reactor & 2x8ton detector (1.05km)

  • Far detector completed, started data taking since Apr. 13, 2011, >120dys w/ 75% phys data live

  • Data taking w/ near det expected from early 2013

  • Sin22q13 sensitivity (90%CL) ~0.08 in half yr, 0.03 ultimately

4

T2K center


Daya bay experiment

6x2.95=17.4GW & 4x20t far/4x20t near det’s (1.6~2km)

4/8 det’s filled, 2det’s taking data

Data taking with full det’s from Summer 2012

sin22q13 <0.03(0.02) at 3s in 1(3) yrs

Daya Bay experiment


On going near future for q 13

FNAL NuMI off-axis beam

Power upgrade 320kW700kW

Recycler: anti-proton  proton

Rep cycle 2.2s  1.33s

New 14kton liquid scintillator fine grained detector @810km

Far detector will complete and start full operation in 2014

NOvA

21


Nova expected sensitivities

Can measure large q13 (~T2K center) very soon

For smaller q13 good competition

Have some sensitivity on mass hierarchy

NOvA expected sensitivities

Fogli

T2K region

T2K

Fogli

T2K


Implication of large q 13 on future
Implication of large q13 on Future

  • If sin22q13> ~0.01

    • Make conventional Multi-MW super beam long baseline experiments possible to explore CPV in lepton sector

    • Although big step needed

  • IF not

    • Need “ideal” beam such as Neutrino Factory or beta beam to probe CPV

T2K region


Implication of large q 13 on future1
Implication of large q13 on Future

1st peak @ 295km (0.6GeV)

  • CPV asymmetry get smaller for larger q13

    • Severer requirement on systematic error

    • Matter effect becomes comparable even at @295km

    •  Need energy spectrum information to disentangle CPV and Matter effect

  • ~20% CPV effect at sin22q13=0.1 w/ sindCP=1 (max. vio.) at 1st peak

    • To detect CPV >3s for sind>0.2 (Asym=4%) O(10k) events necessary

    • Much higher statistics is necessary  >MW proton & huge detector mandatory

T2K 90% region

Matter effect

Pure CPV effect

 Next talk


Summary
Summary

  • Quest for non-zero q13 is turning around final corner

  • T2K detected first indication of ne appearance at 2.5s significance

    • 0.03(0.04)<sin22q13<0.28(0.34) (inv hier)

  • MINOS presented consistent results

  • New reactor experiments are getting online

  • NOvA will come in 2014

  • Discovery of finite q13 will come very soon (hopefully)!

  • Large q13 makes possible to explore CPV with upgraded >MW beam and Huge high sensitivity detector