SAFETY & MOBILITY OVERVIEWThoughts on the Future Alan E. Pisarski GHSA Annual Meeting Oklahoma City, 2006
THE BROADEST ISSUE WHAT IS THE ROLE OF TRANSPORTATION IN OUR SOCIETY? • Changes with society’s structure • Changes with incomes and education • Changes with age and family structure • Changes with goals: personal and other HOW DO WE MAKE SAFETY A MAJOR PART OF IT?
A WORD ABOUT GOALS Suppressing travel is not an answer; if your transportation goals can be met by everyone staying home you have the wrong goals.
FOR MOST THINGS IN SOCIETY–DEMOGRAPHY IS DESTINY –PERHAPS THE CENTRAL TRUTH IN TRANSPORTATION AND VEHICLE SAFETY
TRANSPORTATION: THE COLLISSION OFDEMOGRAPHY WITHGEOGRAPHY THE INTERACTION OFDEMOGRAPHY WITHECONOMICSANDTECHNOLOGY
We Have Survived A Difficult Period • The baby boomers coming of age ---- working age and driving age • Women joining the labor force in vast numbers • Extraordinary growth in just-in-time freight • Extraordinary growth in foreign trade • This has almost paralyzed action • A Sisyphean challenge • NOW WE HAVE NEW CHALLENGES
Demographic Coming and Going • The baby boomers go off-stage • Workers replaced by? • Immigrants coming on-stage • Other – Who, Where, How? • All states will show a decline in the % in age group 18-65; 12 actual Too many workers to too few? As much of a social issue as a transportation issue
END OF THE BOOM 1980-90 • 18.5 million workers 1990-2000 • 13.3 million workers • Under 5 million since 2000 • Too few commuters?
Work Force Issues • Older workers in labor force • Even more females in labor force • Even more variable schedules • Work hours – a lot like part time • Skills matches – more spreading out • Amenities-based employment
There’s Greater Stability in Future Travel Demand • Workers • Licenses/Vehicles • Population & Households • Women’s roles • Domestic Migration
New Forces Of Change • LACK OF SKILLED WORKERS • DEMOCRATIZATION OF MOBILITY • IMMIGRATION • THAT OLD “VILLAIN” AFFLUENCE • DISPERSAL TECHNOLOGIES • GLOBALIZATION OF EVERYTHING
The Focus Is On Big Metros • 60% of population in big metros (2000) • 1960 34 areas over 1 million • 1990 39 areas over 1 million • 2000 50 areas over 1 million • 60/20/20 big metro/metro/rural • Now 12 areas over 5 meg = 100 million • Focus of national issues is in big metros • but growth is rural – “donut” metros
The “Donut” Metro • Jobs and workers centered in suburbs • 46% of commutes; • 64% of growth 90-00 • 7.5 million coming in to the subs from exurbs and other metros each day • 7.5 million going out to the subs from central cities • CC to subs > Subs to CC in share of growth
Sprawl ? –or Community Integration? • X-county commuting; 34 million leave residence county each day • Half of growth 90-00 in x-county commutes! • MORE THAN HALF 00-05 • Why? Does it matter? • Intra Co 18.5 mins; X Co 36.9 mins
Forces Favoring Continued or Increased Dispersal • OLDER POPULATIONS MOVE LESS • HOME OWNERS MORE STABLE • MULTI-WORKER HOUSEHOLDS • AFFLUENCE FAVORS SUBURBS • TREND TO SOUTH AND WEST (82%) • HOUSING COSTS • “DISPERSAL TECHNOLOGIES”
DISPERSAL TECHNOLOGIES • ALL GROUND TRANSPORT • AIR TRANSPORT • OVERNIGHT DELIVERY • TELEPHONE/CELLPHONE • RADIO/TELEVISION • COMPUTER/INTERNET Anti-dispersal tech? -- the elevator!
BUT – There’s more to transportation than just commuting! • COMMUTING (20% of local psgr travel) • OTHER LOCAL TRAVEL • TOURISM • SERVICES (power/phone/cable/sewer/water) • PUBLIC VEHICLES (gov. services) • URBAN GOODS MOVEMENT • THRU PASSENGER TRAVEL • THRU FREIGHT TRAVEL
What about tourism and long distance travel? • We drive to where we want to walk • Participation by Minorities • Conflicts between visitations and preservation • National Parks being shifted toward Transit? • A world of continued security threats?
WE ARE AT VEHICLE SATURATION? POPULATION TO VEHICLE RATIO 1900-1995 2.6 1.3
Perhaps the greatest transportation technological innovation of the last half of the century
A More/Less Affluent Pop? A Higher/Lower Density Pop? Auto use more/less affordable? Age distribution more/less oriented to the auto? Longer/shorter Trip lengths? Purpose changes? Freight more/less valuable ? Freight more/less time sensitive? Destinations more/less dispersed? The Personal Vehicle And Our Future
MORE AFFLUENCE LOWER DENSITY AUTO AFFORDABILITY AUTO PRONE AGE AUTO TRIP PURPOSE DISPERSED DESTINATIONS HIGHER FREIGHT VALUE MORE TIME SENSITIVITY DEMOCRATIZATION OF MOBILITY More Less More More More More More More More WHAT DOES THE FUTURE LOOK LIKE?
A FUTURE WORLD WHERE TIME, RELIABILITY AND RESPONSIVENESS ARE KEY KEYS • Personal Vs Mass • On-demand Vs Scheduled • Private Vs Public services • Self-operated Vs Managed • Time sensitive Vs Cost sensitive • Security issues
Infrastructure Issues • Feds - an unreliable partner • Re-defining failure • Retrofitting the system • ITS and ops. opportunities • 1/3rd of fatalities facility related? – Is it “The wrong question!”
Technology and its users • “Here Now!” • Transparency • Staged Learning (radio a distraction!) • Implementation • User acceptance • Institutional acceptance • Shifts in roles public/private