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QER SMT Scenario Planning Workshop. by Professor Ron Johnston 28 April 2009 Brisbane. QER faces a future marked by uncertainty, complexity and change. Structure of the global economy Extent and impact of potential climate change Range of responses to growing oil scarcity

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qer smt scenario planning workshop

QER SMT Scenario Planning Workshop

by Professor Ron Johnston

28 April 2009


qer faces a future marked by uncertainty complexity and change
QER faces a future marked by uncertainty, complexity and change
  • Structure of the global economy
  • Extent and impact of potential climate change
  • Range of responses to growing oil scarcity
  • New technologies with high impact on supply and demand for energy
  • Conflict between economic and environmental values
  • State, national and international legislation and policies

Assisting organisations to think systematically about the future so they can develop robust strategies for it by:

  • Understanding what types of futures might be possible
  • Challenging presumptions
  • Building greater resilience into strategy
differentiating foresight
Differentiating Foresight

Action-oriented [vs. ‘contemplative’ (passive)]

Participatory [vs. non-participatory]

Alternative futures[vs. a single future state]

Probable, possible and preferred futures

basic types of dialogue in a foresight exercise
Basic types of dialogue in a Foresight exercise

Structured stakeholder dialogue




Debating what we would like to happen…

Deciding what should be done …

Understanding where we are…

Exploring what could happen…

scenario planning

Where do we need to be 15-20 years from now?

Scenario Planning

Avoids the incrementalism of traditional planning

Where can we be next year?



What should we do today?

And the next?…

Where we

Where we


are now

are now





Scenario Planning

Annual Planning

avoiding limitations
Avoiding Limitations

Instead of:

Most LikelyFuture




We will:



…A set of core strategies, but not a single “grand strategy”…

developing future scenarios

Scenarios Selected to

Capture The Range of

Planning Uncertainty

Developing Future Scenarios

Key Global Affairs

Mission Drivers

Derive Key Forces For

Change (Dimensions) Outside Direct Control

The “Planning Space”





Regional Conflict



Health & Disease

Fiscal Health


Set the Boundary Conditions

of the Planning Space

evergreen ii scenarios




Set of



Evergreen II Scenarios

Future Operating


Optimal USCG


Immersion in

Future “Worlds”



Asian Way


Be Careful What You Wish For

scenario planning1
Scenario Planning

A scenario is a ‘story’ illustrating visions of possible future or aspects of possible future.. Scenarios are not predictions about the future but rather simulations of some possible futures. They are used both as an exploratory method or a tool for decision-making, mainly to highlight the discontinuities from the present and to reveal the choices available and their potential consequences

elements of scenario planning
Elements of Scenario Planning
  • Identify the focal issue
  • Identification and analysis of the drivers
  • Rank by importance and uncertainty
  • Selecting scenario parameters
  • Writing the scenarios
  • ‘Back-casting’ to identify key interventions
economic drivers
Economic Drivers

Resumed economic growth

  • High energy demand from China, India
  • Strong drive for alternate fuels
  • Commodity prices soar again

Truncated economic growth

  • High oil prices constrain economic recovery
  • Capital availability limited
environmental drivers
Environmental Drivers

Strong environmental pressures

  • High range climate change
  • Copenhagen sets tough ETS requirements – targets to decarbonise economies
  • Major investment in climate change

Moderate environmental pressures

  • Low range climate change
  • Increasing doubt about greenhouse science
  • Priority to create jobs

High range climate change

technological drivers
Technological Drivers

Major advances in supply technology

  • Efficiency of oil extraction doubled through application of biological agents
  • Electric car production soars based on new battery technology

Major advances in demand technology

  • Energy management industry booming with new products and services
  • High efficiency cars dominate global production
political drivers
Political Drivers

Market based approaches

  • High level of taxation on road use
  • Private sector investment drives alternate fuel development

Interventionist approaches

  • Major government investment in alternate fuel development
  • Governments strongly influenced by environmental pressures
social values drivers
Social/Values Drivers

Values dominated by environmental concerns

  • Hydrocarbon anathema
  • Large decrease in transport of goods

Values dominated by economic concerns

  • Environmental extremism rejected in favour of jobs and community well-being

alternate fuels