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Seasonal Climate Predictions at CPTEC-INPE

Seasonal Climate Predictions at CPTEC-INPE. Paulo Nobre CPTEC/INPE. Current operational runs. AGCM KUO, RAS, GRELL, DERF FCST SSTA, PRESCRIBED SSTA 15 Members each: 120 total 4 months forecast CGCM – seasonal climate T062L28, RAS 10 Members per month 7 months forecast

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Seasonal Climate Predictions at CPTEC-INPE

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  1. Seasonal Climate Predictions at CPTEC-INPE Paulo Nobre CPTEC/INPE 11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

  2. Current operational runs • AGCM • KUO, RAS, GRELL, DERF • FCST SSTA, PRESCRIBED SSTA • 15 Members each: 120 total • 4 months forecast • CGCM – seasonal climate • T062L28, RAS • 10 Members per month • 7 months forecast • CGCM – extended weather • T126L28, RAS, • 2 members per day • 30 days forecast 11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

  3. Evaluation of CGCM.1.0 climatology & FCST skill • AGCM: CPTEC.1.0 RAS T062L28 • OGCM: MOM3, 40S-40N, ¼ x ¼ deep tropics, L20, rigid lid • Ensemble size: 10 members • From each month of the year • Prediction length: 7 months • Period of integration: 1982 - 2001 • Atmos IC: NCEP reanalysis • Ocean IC: Restart files from OGCM forced run 11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

  4. Development of CPTEC’s CGCM 2.0 • AGCM: • CPTEC.2.0 MPI, T126L64 • RAS, Grell deep cumulus convection • Shallow cumulus convection (diurnal cycle related…), • improved solar radiation algorithm • OGCM: • MOM4, Global, 1/8 x 1/8 tropics, L50, free sfc, fresh water flux, • Dynamical ice model • MOM4’s FSM coupler • Parallel computer with 1000 processors 11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

  5. IC NCEP IC NCEP IC NCEP ICs NCEP SST daily CPTEC’s Coupled GCM Coupled Forecast Initialization AGCM Atmos FCSTs Tau & Heat OGCM OGCM SFC Fluxes IC 11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

  6. OGCM Grid High Res: 0.25º Lon Lat Tropical Atlantic 11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

  7. DJF Precipitation Forecastsanomaly correlations 11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain Nobre et al. (2006)

  8. 11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

  9. 11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

  10. 11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

  11. Experiment Design: Vegetation Changes CONTROL 50% SAVANNAH LM 50% SAVANNAH SM 100% BARE SOIL Nobre et al. (2007) 11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

  12. PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES 50% SAVANNAH LARGE MESH 11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain Nobre et al. (2007)

  13. Rainfall reduction over the Amazon amplified by O-A coupling 11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain Nobre et al. (2007)

  14. Amazon deforestation increases ENSO-related climate variability 11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain Nobre et al. (2007)

  15. CGCM Niño 3.4 SST Drift 11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

  16. 11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

  17. AAIW NADW NADW AABW MOM4 Atlantic Meridional Transport (Sv) 11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

  18. Ventilation of the EUC Diferent origins? STC subduction regions Upwelling regions Ekman transports (Me)‏ Adapted from Schott et al. (TACE white paper)‏ 11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

  19. Lagrangian analysis 11.7 Sv • Trace back particles from the EUC at 20W to the deepest mixed layer depth (De Vries & Döös 2001, Hazeleger & al. 2003) • Distinguish between parcels from T > 20C and T <= 20C 11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

  20. EUC ventilation 1.9 Sv 0.04 Sv 7.8 Sv 1.8 Sv 11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

  21. 11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

  22. Catarina Tropical Storm Hits Brazil 26 March 2004 11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

  23. Will extreme events become more frequent in a warmer climate? 11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain www.hadleycenter.com

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